
由于美国实施封锁导致中国主要原油供应国伊朗的石油供应受阻,中国的独立炼油企业纷纷转向采购伊拉克原油;与此同时,国有炼油企业的激烈竞争又使得独立炼油商难以获得俄罗斯原油。
China’s independent refiners are turning to Iraqi crude after a US blockade choked supplies from top source Iran, while competition from state-owned rivals priced most of them out of Russian barrels.
据熟悉情况的交易商透露,包括山东省多家小型“茶壶”炼油厂在内的私营炼油企业,已购买了11月份交货的伊拉克巴士拉重质原油与巴士拉中质原油,其采购价格较ICE布伦特原油溢价最高达每桶18美元。这些采购行为反映出市场正急于获取即期原油供应,而非中国石油需求出现显著回升。
Private processors, including smaller ‘teapot’ refiners in Shandong province, have bought Iraq’s Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium grades for November delivery at premiums of as much as $18 a barrel to ICE Brent, according to traders familiar with the matter. The purchases point to a rush for prompt supplies rather than a strong recovery in Chinese oil demand.
目前,至少有50艘油轮——大多装载着伊朗原油——滞留在中国沿海海域。美国实施封锁的目的是迫使伊朗在符合美方利益的条件下结束这场已持续七个月的冲突。与此同时,中国国有炼油企业占据了大部分可获得的俄罗斯原油资源,导致独立炼油商的采购成本大幅上升。
At least 50 tankers, mostly carrying Iranian crude, are bottled up along the nation’s coast as a US blockade seeks to pressure Tehran into ending the seven-month war on terms favorable to Washington. At the same time, state-owned Chinese refiners are taking most of the available Russian crude, driving up costs for independent processors.
Kpler公司的资深原油分析师徐沐雨指出,部分山东地区的炼油厂库存最早将于本月底耗尽,此时北京方面又刚刚发布了新的原油进口配额,这使得独立炼油商不得不在日益稀缺的替代货源中展开激烈竞争。“为避免停产或大幅降低开工率,这些炼油厂必须尽快找到替代原油来源。”由于伊朗原油价格相对低廉,且俄罗斯远东地区的ESPO原油富含柴油成分,以往独立炼油商多倾向于采购这两种原油;如今在供应紧张的背景下,他们不得不转而采购含硫量较高的伊拉克巴士拉原油。
Inventories at some Shandong teapots could run out as early as the end of this month, forcing refiners to compete for a shrinking pool of alternatives just as Beijing issued fresh crude-import quotas, said Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at Kpler. “To avoid shutting down or significantly cutting run rates, refiners need to secure alternative supplies as soon as possible.”The supply squeeze has pushed some processors toward sulfur-rich Basrah crude, which they typically avoid in favor of cheaper Iranian barrels and diesel-rich ESPO from Russia’s Far East.
随着海湾产油国通过霍尔木兹海峡输送更多原油,中东地区的石油供应状况有所改善,这也使得伊拉克原油愈发容易获取。在沙特阿美公司下调其面向亚洲市场的旗舰原油价格后,该地区产油国纷纷加大折扣力度以保住市场份额。
Improving Middle Eastern flows, as Gulf producers move more oil through the Strait of Hormuz, are also making Iraqi crude increasingly accessible. Producers in the region are deepening discounts to defend market share after Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship grade for Asian buyers.
此外,据不愿透露身份的交易商称,俄罗斯原油价格依然居高不下:ESPO原油的价格较布伦特原油溢价近每桶30美元。
Meanwhile, Russian barrels remain expensive, with ESPO commanding a premium of almost $30 a barrel above Brent, the traders said, asking not to be identified as the negotiations are private.
“茶壶”炼油厂对价格极为敏感,”Kpler公司的徐沐雨说道。她补充道,目前巴士拉原油的价格已低于俄罗斯的ESPO原油,这使得伊拉克原油对私营炼油商越来越具有吸引力。
“Teapots are very price sensitive,” Kpler’s Muyu Xu said, adding that Basrah is now cheaper than Russia’s ESPO, making those barrels increasingly attractive to private refiners.
据交易商透露,购买伊拉克原油的既有中国山东省的私营炼油厂,也有一些大型独立炼油企业。伊拉克原油通常由维多集团、托克集团、摩科瑞能源集团以及道达尔能源公司等贸易商负责销售。
Buyers of Iraqi crude include both private processors in China’s Shandong province and some large independent refiners, according to the traders. Iraqi barrels are typically marketed by trading houses such as Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Mercuria Energy Group, as well as TotalEnergies SE.
在制裁实施前,伊朗曾是中国独立炼油厂的主要原油供应国,战前日均出口量超过100万桶。这些私营炼油厂是主要买家,受惠于受制裁原油带来的大幅价格优惠,其炼油利润也得以提升。
Iran was a major crude supplier to China’s independent refiners before the blockade, with imports exceeding 1 million barrels a day prior to the war. Private processors were the main buyers, attracted by steep discounts on sanctioned barrels that bolstered refining margins.