随着国债收益率和油价回落，新兴市场股市和货币周二上涨，而巴西资产在第一轮总统选举中保守派大获全胜后仍然受到青睐。
Emerging-market stocks and currencies rose Tuesday as Treasury yields and oil prices eased, while Brazilian assets remain in favor after a conservative sweep in the first round of the presidential election.
受美元疲软、债券反弹和布伦特原油跌破每桶100美元的提振，MSCI新兴市场股指连续第二天上涨。货币指标也小幅走高，兰特兑美元上涨0.8%。南非市场也受到了大规模债券拍卖的提振。
MSCI’s emerging market stock index rose for a second straight day, getting a boost from a weaker dollar, a rebound in bonds and Brent’s slide below $100 a barrel. A currency gauge also edged higher, with the rand gaining 0.8% against the greenback. South African markets also enjoyed a boost from a heavilyd bond auction.
东欧货币受益于法国风险溢价的放松。在央行副行长佐尔坦·库拉里（Zoltan Kurali）表示最早可能在2031年采用欧元后，匈牙利货币兑欧元上涨0.6%。在通胀加速支持加息的理由后，捷克克朗抹去了早盘跌幅，兑欧元上涨约0.2%。
Eastern European currencies benefited from an easing in French risk premia. The Hungarian forint added 0.6% versus the euro after deputy central bank governor Zoltan Kurali said euro adoption could happen as early as 2031. The Czech koruna erased an early loss to gain about 0.2% to the euro after an acceleration in inflation bolstered arguments for an interest-rate increase.
新兴市场投资者的焦点牢牢集中在巴西，预计周一的选举后涨势将持续到10月25日的第二轮投票。法国兴业银行分析师表示，周一升至五个月高点的雷亚尔将进一步上涨，建议做空美元和欧元兑巴西货币的头寸。
Emerging-market investors’ focus is firmly on Brazil, where Monday’s post-election rally is expected to extend until the Oct. 25 second-round vote. The real which rallied to a five-month high on Monday, will gain further, Societe Generale analysts said, advising short dollar and euro positions against the Brazilian currency.
布朗兄弟哈里曼的埃利亚斯·哈达德表示，第一轮的结果为挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗提供了进入决选的“动力”。
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman said the first-round result has handed “momentum” to challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro, heading into the runoff.
他表示：“博尔索纳罗加快财政修复和降低税收的计划将增加巴西积极的资产前景，巴西对能源、人工智能和国防相关大宗商品的战略敞口已经支撑了这一前景。”
“Bolsonaro’s plan for faster fiscal repair and lower taxes would add to the positive Brazil asset outlook, already underpinned by Brazil’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense,” he said.
阅读：投资者最爱的博尔索纳罗在竞选中领先，巴西资产激增然而，更广泛的情绪仍然谨慎，国债收益率接近数十年高点，对法国危机的担忧提振了美元，而尚未解决的中东危机使油价保持在100美元附近。
Read: Brazil Assets Surge as Investor Favorite Bolsonaro Leads in Race The mood more broadly remains cautious, however, with Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, fears of a French crisis boosting the dollar and the unresolved Middle East crisis keeping oil prices near $100.
政策制定者被迫采取行动。例如，印度预计将于本周加息，这是近四年来的首次。在智利，在比索上个月下跌4%后，政府承诺出售美元。赞比亚的夸查今年迄今表现强劲，但由于能源进口商竞相购买美元，连续第六天下跌。
Policymakers are being forced into action. India, for instance, is expected to raise rates this week for the first time in nearly four years. In Chile, the government pledged to sell dollars after the peso’s 4% slide in the past month. Zambia’s kwacha, a strong year-to-date performer, fell for the sixth day as energy importers clamored for dollars.
法国兴业银行新兴市场策略主管菲尼克斯·卡伦（Phoenix Kalen）表示，最近几周，新兴市场投资者因一系列因素而“受到重创”。
Emerging-market investors have “gotten burned” by a range of factors in recent weeks, according to Phoenix Kalen, head of EM strategy at Societe Generale.
卡伦表示：“投资者可能正在考虑降低投资组合的风险并保持相当有选择性，这表明大多数新兴市场外汇现货回报率将为负。”他预计巴西、哥伦比亚、印度和印度尼西亚的货币将在未来几个月表现出色。
“Investors may be thinking about de-risking their portfolios and staying quite selective, which suggests an environment where the majority of EM foreign-exchange spot returns will be negative,” said Kalen, who expects currencies from Brazil, Colombia, India and Indonesia to be among the outperformers over the coming months.
法国的财政担忧也可能成为阻力。巴克莱银行（Barclays Plc）的策略师建议客户出售以欧元计价的新兴债务，转而出售以美元计价的债券。
French fiscal concerns could also emerge as a headwind. Strategists at Barclays Plc advised clients to sell emerging debt denominated in euros in favor of dollar-denominated bonds.