斯科特·贝森特声称，经济增长与支出控制相结合能够遏制联邦赤字，但这一说法遭到了市场策略师的质疑。他们指出，当前美国的借贷规模实在庞大，难以通过简单手段加以控制。
Secretary Scott Bessent’s assurance that US economic growth combined with spending restraint can rein in the federal deficit met with skepticism by market strategists who highlighted the scale of current borrowing.
周一晚间，贝森特在讲话中表示，在接手了“堆积如山的债务”后，政府正采取两项措施：一是严格控制财政支出，二是推动经济增长。他还提到，在一次性退还了总计1800亿美元后，关税收入也重新开始回升。
The Treasury chief, in remarks late Monday, said the administration is doing two things after having inherited “a big stack of debt.”He said the administration is “constraining spending and growing the economy.”He also pointed to a resumption of higher tariff revenue after a one-time slew of $180 billion worth of refund payments.
“关键在于债务占GDP的比重，我们一定会让这一比例逐步下降，”贝森特在宾夕法尼亚州商会活动上说道，“这一过程甚至可能迅速发生。”他同时指出，只要国内生产总值能持续保持3%以上的增速——这一目标本季度本应实现——就能顺利达成预期效果。
“What is important is the debt-to-GDP, and we will start bending that curve and bringing it down,” Bessent said at a Pennsylvania Chamber event. “It could happen very quickly.”Consistent gross domestic product gains in excess of 3%, a target already set to be accomplished for last quarter, will help secure the goal, he indicated.
虽然这些言论只是对贝森特此前观点的重申——自去年6月起他便一直强调经济增长与支出控制有助于降低债务水平——但此次讲话正值美国国债收益率处于数十年高位之际。此外，11月4日财政部将发布季度债务发行计划，届时贝森特的观点也将面临进一步检验。
While the comments marked a reiteration of Bessent’s talking points — he’s been speaking of growth and spending restraint bending down the debt curve since at least June last year — the latest remarks came with Treasuries yields near multi-decade highs. His views are also under scrutiny ahead of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement scheduled for Nov. 4, when the department is set to lay out debt-issuance plans.
“在10年期国债收益率大幅攀升的背景下，贝森特试图对长期收益率曲线施加影响，”由哈里曼·埃利亚斯·哈达德领衔的布朗兄弟公司策略师团队在题为《像贝森特那样扭转趋势》的报告中写道。周一，10年期国债收益率升至2002年以来的最高点，接近5.35%。周二油价回落为市场提供了一定支撑，截至纽约时间上午11点半，该收益率已降至约5.26%。
“Bessent attempted to jawbone the long-end of the yield curve after 10-year Treasury yields surged,” Brown Brothers strategists led by Harriman Elias Haddad wrote in a note titled “Bend It Like Bessent.”Benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2002 on Monday, at almost 5.35%. A retreat in oil prices Tuesday helped offer support, and they were lower at around 5.26% as of 11:30 a.m. in New York.
经济学家预计，今年财政赤字占GDP的比例将达到约6%，这一数值在失业率较低且经济增长稳健的时期堪称历史高位。2023年GDP增速接近3%，2024年也维持在这一水平，但这两年的财政赤字率均超过了6%。
Economists anticipate a roughly 6% fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for this year, an historically high figure for a time of low unemployment and solid economic growth. While GDP gains clocked almost 3% in 2023 and did touch that rate for 2024, those years also saw deficits surpassing 6%.
“除非经济增长速度极为迅猛，否则它无法替代真正的财政纪律，”无党派机构“负责任联邦预算委员会”的高级政策主任马克·戈德韦因说道。
“Economic growth, unless it is incredibly rapid, is not a replacement for real fiscal discipline,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
正如众多预测机构所指出的，美国债务水平正朝着前所未有的高度攀升。美国国会预算办公室今年2月发出警告称，到2030年，美国债务占GDP的比例将突破106%这一1946年创下的历史纪录。
As laid out by many forecasters, the debt curve is heading to unseen territory. The Congressional Budget Office in February warned the debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the 1946 record of 106% in 2030.
至于如何将财政赤字率降至贝森特设定的3%这一目标，戈德韦因指出需要实现4.5%的经济增速。“我们无法仅靠经济增长来解决这一问题——并非因为这在数学上不可行，而是实现的可能性极低。”今年美国国债收益率大幅上升，进一步加重了政府的借贷压力。目前，投资者要求5年至30年期国债的收益率须高于5%；而12个月以内到期的短期国债收益率也超过了4%。
As for deficits, to get them down to 3% of GDP — Bessent’s target — it would take 4.5% growth, Goldwein said. “We’re not going to grow our way out, not because it’s mathematically impossible, but it is implausible.”The surge in Treasury yields this year has only added to pressures on government borrowing. Investors are demanding yields of more than 5% for debt maturing in five to 30 years. Bills, which mature in up to 12 months, are above 4%.
上述所有数值均高于截至8月底美国可交易国债3.48%的平均收益率，这意味着随着原有低利率债务需以更高利率进行再融资，政府的偿债成本还将持续上升。在2026财年的前11个月里，美国净利息支出总额便已高达1万亿美元。
All those levels are above the 3.48% average on marketable Treasuries as of the end of August — which means debt-servicing costs will keep climbing as older, lower-yielding debt has to be refinanced at higher rates. Net interest already totaled $1 trillion for the first 11 months of the 2026 fiscal year.
澳大利亚国家银行策略师罗德里戈·卡特里尔（Rodrigo Catril）表示，长期收益率的上升部分反映了“对财政挥霍的担忧”。“以更快的速度持续增长经济是有帮助的，但这并不能解决问题。”
The rise in longer-dated yields partly reflects “concerns over fiscal profligacy,” said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank. “Growing the economy at a faster rate and on a sustained basis is helpful, but it doesn’t fix the problem.”
卡特瑞尔和其他市场参与者强调，国会负责财政政策--这限制了贝森特承诺对支出限制的影响。“减少预算赤字需要两党达成协议，当然目前需求不足。”财政部长上个月表示，共和党人可能会在11月3日中期选举后加速在国会通过财政整合计划。他还表示，他一直在与白宫预算主任拉斯·沃特一起制定一项计划。但贝森特尚未制定计划。
Congress is in charge of fiscal policy, Catril and other market participants highlighted — which limits the influence of Bessent’s pledges on spending restraint. “Reducing the budget deficit requires bipartisan agreement and of course that is in short demand at the moment.”The Treasury chief suggested last month that Republicans might aim to accelerate a fiscal-consolidation plan through Congress after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He’s also said he’s been working on a package together with the White House budget director, Russ Vought. But Bessent has yet to lay out a program.
麦格理集团策略师加雷斯·贝瑞（Gareth Berry）表示：“既定的雄心不是计划。”
“A stated ambition is not a plan,” said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group.
选举后一天，财政部将制定最新的债务发行计划。这将是自官员们出人意料地修改长期国债回购计划以来首次发表此类声明，贝森特称此举为“财政部转折”。投资者和策略师表示，鉴于长期债券成本较高，财政部可能会暗示未来对长期债券的依赖会减少。该部门在上一份退款声明中确实对其指导方针进行了微妙的转变，称官员们正在评估息票和浮动利率票据销售的未来潜在“变化”，而不是潜在的“增加”--这为潜在的供应削减打开了大门。
A day after the elections, the Treasury will lay out its latest plan for debt issuance. It will be the first such statement since officials unexpectedly revamped the buyback program for long-maturity Treasuries, a move Bessent dubbed a “Treasury twist.”Investors and strategists say the Treasury could signal less reliance on long-dated bonds going forward, given their higher cost. The department did make a subtle shift to its guidance at its last refunding statement, saying officials were evaluating potential future “changes” in coupon and floating-rate note sales rather than potential “increases” — opening the door to potential cuts in supply.