Axios审查的一项新分析显示，随着能源市场波动和伊朗战争加深了负担能力危机，美国人今年冬天用石油取暖的费用可能比去年高得多。
Americans could pay far more to heat their homes with oil this winter than last, a new analysis reviewed by Axios shows, as volatile energy markets and the Iran War deepen the affordability crisis.
为什么重要：冬季到来之前，取暖费正在消耗家庭预算，燃料类型之间存在明显差异。
Why it matters: Heating bills are eating into household budgets before winter sets in, with stark divides between fuel types.
从数字上看：根据国家能源援助总监协会（NEADA）的估计，今年冬天用石油取暖的家庭可能比去年多支付约50%，高于9月中旬的31.3%的预测。
By the numbers: Families that heat with oil could pay about 50% more this winter than last, according to estimates from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), up from its 31.3% projection in mid-September.
用石油取暖的平均成本预计将上涨约878美元，今年冬天的成本超过2，600美元。
The average cost of heating a home with oil is expected to rise by about $878, costing over $2,600 this winter.
相比之下，美国能源信息署周二发布的冬季燃料展望预计全国电费将上涨4%，天然气电费将下降9%，丙烷支出将下降3%。EIA预计取暖油的增幅小于NEADA，预计家庭支出将增长21%。
By comparison, the Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook released Tuesday projects electricity bills will rise 4% nationally, while natural gas bills will fall 9% and propane spending will drop 3%. EIA expects a smaller increase on heating oil than NEADA, projecting a 21% increase in household expenditures.
东北部家庭感受到的痛苦最为严重：根据NEADA的数据，大约82%的家庭取暖油是在该地区消耗的，而该地区的一些州缺乏强大的天然气管道。
Northeastern households will feel the pain most acutely: about 82% of home heating oil is consumed in the region, where some states lack robust natural gas pipelines, according to NEADA data.
NEADA表示，只有3%的美国家庭使用石油作为主要热源，而大约45%的家庭使用天然气，43%的家庭使用电力。
Just 3% of U.S. households use oil as their primary heat source, compared to about 45% using natural gas and 43% using electricity, NEADA says.
大局：随着伊朗和乌克兰战争以及炼油厂活动下降，全球石油市场陷入低迷，取暖油价格正在上涨。
The big picture: Heating oil prices are rising as global oil markets falter because of the wars in Iran and Ukraine and as refinery activity declines.
NEADA执行董事马克·沃尔夫（Mark Wolfe）告诉Axios：“这些趋势确实反映了这场战争最坏的情况，他们今年冬天就会感受到这一点，这是不幸的。”
"Those trends really reflect the worst-case scenario of this war, and they are going to feel it this winter, and it's unfortunate," Mark Wolfe, executive director of the NEADA, tells Axios.
他们在说什么：沃尔夫说，由于成本问题，一些家庭将减少食品或药品的使用，从发薪日贷方借款，或者将气温降至不安全的水平来支付取暖费用。
What they're saying: Because of the cost, some families will cut back on food or medicine, borrow from payday lenders, or turn the heat down to unsafe levels to cover their heating bills, Wolfe says.
沃尔夫说：“对于低收入家庭，有时州会调动资金来帮助他们，但他们不会这样做。”
"With low-income families, sometimes states will move money around to help them, but they'll go without," Wolfe says.
字里行间：沃尔夫说，各州可以投入更多资金用于供暖援助，但与受监管的天然气和电力公用事业公司服务的家庭相比，他们保护供暖油客户的工具更少。
Between the lines: States can put more money toward heating assistance, but they have fewer tools to protect heating-oil customers than households served by regulated gas and electric utilities, Wolfe says.
各州可以要求公用事业公司提供折扣、负担能力计划或冬季关闭保护，但它们通常不适用于独立取暖油经销商。
States can require utilities to offer discounts, affordability programs or winter shutoff protections, but they generally don't apply to independent heating-oil dealers.
放大：马萨诸塞州州长莫拉·希利（Maura Healey）周一宣布因冬季能源成本上升而进入能源紧急状态，释放了近1.5亿美元的救济资金，并扩大了对用石油取暖的中产阶级家庭的援助。
Zoom in: Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a State of Energy Emergency Monday over rising winter energy costs, unlocking nearly $150 million in relief and expanding assistance to middle-class households that heat with oil.
罗德岛州还宣布进入能源负担紧急状态，并将2800万美元的储备用于冬季电费减免，缅因州州长珍妮特·米尔斯宣布为低收入居民提供4000万美元的自动电价折扣。
Rhode Island has also declared an energy affordability emergency and directed $28 million in reserves toward winter electric-bill relief, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced $40 million in automatically applied electricity discounts for low-income residents.
2025年4月，政府解雇了卫生与公众服务部LIHEAP的联邦工作人员，并提议取消该计划的资金。
The administration fired LIHEAP's federal staff at the Department of Health and Human Services in April 2025 and proposed eliminating funding for the program.
LIHEAP仍在运行，但州管理人员在没有专职联邦工作人员的情况下运行。
LIHEAP is still running, but state administrators are operating without dedicated federal staff.
白宫将Axios转介给HHS，HHS表示它“将履行其为国会提供资金的责任”，并且“HHS有工作人员和能力及时分配这些资金。“底线是：冬天即将到来，美国人需要为寒冷和物价做好准备。
The White House referred Axios to HHS, which said it "will carry out its responsibilities for funding Congress has made available" and that "HHS has the staff and capacity to distribute these funds in a timely manner." The bottom line: Winter is coming, and Americans need to prepare for both the cold — and the prices — to bite.