上周，一名曾在俄罗斯抗疫研究所工作的员工去世，可能死于一种未明确具体类型的鼠疫。这据当地新闻媒体报道，俄罗斯伊尔库茨克地区（位于西伯利亚东部）随后对近200人实施了隔离措施。
Last week, an employee who worked at a Russian anti-plague institute died, possibly from an unspecified form of plague This led to the quarantine of nearly 200 people in Russia's Irkutsk region, located in eastern Siberia, according to local news outlets. Following these reports, concerns are circulating about what exactly caused the death and quarantine — and just how worried the rest of the world should be.
这些报道引发了关于死亡原因和隔离措施的确切因果关系的担忧，以及全球其他地区应该如何看待这一事件的疑虑。
The World Health Organization says the incident presents a low risk globally of pathogen spread, and a moderate risk for the nearby area, Dr. Nahid Bhadelia founding director of Boston University's Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases, told CNBC's "Squawk On the Street" on Tuesday.
世界卫生组织表示，这起事件对全球传染病传播的风险较低，而对附近地区的风险为中等水平。波士顿大学新兴传染病中心创始主任纳希德·巴赫德利亚博士周二在接受CNBC《斯沃克街》节目采访时表示。但一些传染病专家认为，目前还无法判断风险级别，他们指出俄罗斯政府缺乏透明度。
But some infectious disease experts say it's impossible to determine the risk yet, citing a lack of transparency from Russian authorities. "The risk to the wider public is uncertain ... I wouldn't call it low, medium or high because we don't know the information to answer that," says Dr. Raj Panjabi a Harvard University physician and former White House Biosecurity Director to President Joe Biden.
“大众面临的风险目前尚不确定……我不会将其称为低、中或高风险，因为我们缺乏足够的信息来做出判断，”哈佛大学医生、前白宫生物安全事务主任拉吉·潘加布尔博士对总统乔·拜登表示。
Typically, when a pathogen causes a death or quarantine, local public health authorities test the pathogen and share the genetic code sequencing so it can be analyzed and risk levels can be assessed by infectious disease experts internationally.
通常情况下，当一种病原体导致死亡或引发隔离措施时，地方公共卫生部门会对该病原体进行检测，并公布其基因序列信息，以便国际传染病专家进行分析并评估风险等级。然而，俄罗斯当局至今尚未公开分享相关细节。
Russian authorities have not yet publicly shared those details. Allegations of a plague outbreak spread after local government official Alexei Tsydenov, head of the nearby Republic of Buryatia, said in an Oct. 2 post on Russian social media platform VK that a woman in the Irkutsk region "may" have died of plague.
关于鼠疫爆发的传闻在周二扩散开来，俄罗斯社交媒体平台VK上附近布里亚特共和国政府官员阿列克谢·策登诺夫在10月2日发帖称，伊尔库茨克地区的一名女性“可能”死于鼠疫。此前俄罗斯联邦疾控中心（Rospotrebnadzor）最初在周日表示，该名实验室人员死于“病因不明的肺炎”，并于周二 reportedly 表示：“在迄今为止检测过的人群中，除了新冠病毒和引起普通感冒的病毒外，未检测到其他传染病病原体。”
After initially saying on Sunday that the laboratory staffer died from "pneumonia of unknown [cause]," Russian public health watchdog Rospotrebnadzor reportedly said Tuesday that beyond Covid-19 and a virus that causes the common cold, "no other infectious disease pathogens were detected" among people tested so far. Yet the alleged size of the reported quarantine suggests an infection that could be more serious than what's being shared publicly, says Panjabi.
然而，据潘贾比表示，报告中提到的隔离规模暗示可能存在比公开报告更严重的感染情况。他说：“言行之间存在出入，这正是我们感到担忧的地方。此外，关于实验室结果的缺乏透明度，这正是当前所急需的。”那么，世界其他地方应该有多担忧呢？
"There's a mismatch between the words and the actions, and that's what makes us concerned. And a lack of transparency about the lab results, which is what's needed right now," he says. How worried should the rest of the world be?
如果俄罗斯确实爆发了鼠疫，那么世界其他地方的担忧程度可能并不太高。
If Russia does have a plague outbreak, the rest of the world could have low cause for concern.
潘贾比表示，肺鼠疫可引起肺炎或类似肺炎的症状，可能导致住院或死亡，但如果及时发现，用抗生素即可治疗。
Pneumonic plague which can cause pneumonia or pneumonia-like symptoms, can lead to hospitalization or death — but it's treatable with antibiotics when identified early, Panjabi says.
如果伊尔库茨克地区正在传播的是另一种病原体，你需要更多目前尚不可用的数据来评估自身风险。潘贾比建议通过随着数据公布问自己三个问题来评估担忧程度。这些答案可以帮助你判断全球关注的程度，并了解病原体的发展情况：新增病例是否在增加，或更多人是否开始生病？是否对学校和工作场所实施了隔离和限制措施？实验室结果是否显示这种病原体是我们之前从未见过的？
If a different form of pathogen is circulating in the Irkutsk region, you'd need more information than is currently available to determine your potential risk. You can track your need to worry by asking yourself three questions as data becomes available, Panjabi suggests. The answers can help you gauge the level of global concern, and gain knowledge on how the pathogen is progressing: Is there an escalation in new cases, or are more people falling sick? Are quarantines and restrictions being put in place for schools and workplaces?
更广泛地说，面对任何传染病爆发或相关担忧，潘贾比建议优先关注他在即将出版的新书《更安全：一本指南——将恐惧转化为行动，将危机转化为社区》中推荐的“个人控制范围”练习。用纸画一个圆圈，在圆圈内写下所有你无法控制、围绕这一重大全球健康事件的内容。例如，你无法控制病例数量或市场波动。
Do lab results reveal that this pathogen is something we haven't seen before? More broadly, to embrace uncertainty during any infectious disease outbreak or concern, Panjabi suggests prioritizing your "locus of control" with an exercise he recommends in his upcoming book, " Safer: A Playbook—Turning Fear into Action and Crisis into Community " Draw a circle on a piece of paper and, inside the circle, write down everything you can't control surrounding a major global health event. You can't control the number of cases, or market volatility, for example.
潘贾比表示，这项活动的目的是提醒你自己哪些事情掌握不在你的手中，以便将注意力转移到那些你实际上能够改变的事情上。
The goal of the activity is to remind yourself of what's out of your hands so you can shift your focus to what you actually change, says Panjabi.
你不需要掌控整个局面就能感觉更稳定。有时我们需要的只是掌控下一步有意义的行动，他说。而能够以这种方式转移控制中心恰恰是实现这一点的一种方式。通过CNBC Select掌控你的金钱 CNBC Select在编辑上保持独立，并可能从链接中的关联合作伙伴获得佣金。
"You don't need control over the whole situation to feel steadier. What we need sometimes is just control over the next meaningful step," he says. "And being able to shift the locus of control in this way is one way to do that." Take control of your money with CNBC Select CNBC Select is editorially independent and may earn a commission from affiliate partners on links.
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