
东京,10月7日:周三,随着欧洲债市紧张局势有所缓解,市场目光转向美联储会议纪要及其决策者的讲话,以寻找可能加息的线索,美元汇率继续走低。
TOKYO, Oct 7 : The US dollar remained lower on Wednesday after stress in European bond markets abated and as eyes turned to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and speeches by its policymakers for signals on a potential rate hike.
此前一个交易日,由于法国总统大选领先者公布了削减开支的计划,法国国债收益率下降,欧元录得七周来最大涨幅。即便日本央行一位持鸽派立场的委员表示支持加息,日元汇率依然走弱。
The euro surged by the most in seven weeks in the prior session as French bond yields slid after the frontrunner in next spring's presidential election outlined plans to slash spending. The yen weakened even after a dovish Bank of Japan board member said she would support interest rate increases.
周三晚些时候,美联储将公布9月15日至16日货币政策会议的纪要。当时美联储为应对通胀而决定加息。上周公布的美国个人消费支出数据及就业数据均不及预期,此后美联储决策者的言论也显得不那么鹰派。
Later on Wednesday, the US central bank is due to release minutes of its September 15-16 policy meeting when it raised interest rates to contend with inflation. Comments from Fed policymakers have come across as less hawkish following lower-than-expected personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data and jobs data last week.
澳大利亚国民银行高级市场策略师加文·弗伦德在播客中表示:“近期个人消费支出及非农就业数据表现疲软,看来美联储加息的紧迫性有所降低。”
"There seems to be a little bit less urgency on the Fed to hike rates after the softer PCE and then the nonfarm payroll reports recently," Gavin Friend, a senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank, said on a podcast.
衡量美元兑一篮子货币汇率的美元指数上涨0.03%,报101.94,前一个交易日该指数曾下跌0.27%。欧元则小幅下跌0.08%,至1.1249美元。
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.03 per cent to 101.94, following a 0.27 per cent slide in the prior session. The euro eased 0.08 per cent to $1.1249.
日元兑美元汇率下跌0.19%,报158.43日元/美元。英镑兑美元汇率也下跌0.08%,至1.3262美元。
The Japanese yen weakened 0.19 per cent against the greenback to 158.43 per dollar. Sterling dipped 0.08 per cent to $1.3262.
近期,受各国央行可能加息的预期以及政府财政状况堪忧的影响,全球各国国债收益率均出现上升势头。
Bond yields around the world have climbed in recent weeks due to expectations of central bank rate hikes as well as concerns about government finances.
2027年将举行一场备受争议的大选,法国政界人士正努力控制预算赤字,在此背景下法国国债市场承受着越来越大的压力。西班牙提前举行大选的消息也进一步加剧了欧元市场的紧张情绪。
French debt is under growing pressure as politicians struggle to curb the budget deficit ahead of a divisive election in 2027. The calling of a snap election in Spain added to the recent stress on the euro.
周二,欧元汇率大幅上涨。此前,法国极右翼总统候选人玛丽娜·勒庞表示,若她在2027年赢得大选,计划实施的支出削减规模将从原先预计的1250亿欧元提高至1400亿欧元,约合1580亿美元。
The euro rallied sharply on Tuesday after far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen raised her target for spending cuts to €140 billion ($158 billion) from €125 billion in savings originally planned if she wins power in 2027.
日本央行新任货币政策委员佐藤绫野周三在接受共同社采访时称,她支持分阶段加息的设想。
The Bank of Japan's new policymaker Ayano Sato said in an interview with the Kyodo news agency on Wednesday that she supports the idea of raising interest rates in several stages.
据三位了解日本央行决策思路的人士透露,该央行可能于本月释放信号,表明核心通胀率已基本达到2%的目标,这显示出其再度加息的准备已趋于充分。
The BOJ may signal this month that underlying inflation has roughly hit its 2 per cent target, three people familiar with its thinking said, highlighting its readiness to raise interest rates again.
本月美联储加息预期有所降温。尽管市场对本月加息的预期有所减弱,但预计今年晚些时候及明年仍会有更多加息举措。
OCTOBER FED HIKE EXPECTATIONS RETREAT Expectations for a Fed rate hike later this month have retreated but markets are still anticipating more increases later in the year and next year.
与部分美联储官员近期呼吁保持耐心的态度相反,堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德周二指出,即便长期利率上升已对经济某些领域造成负面影响,央行仍需继续上调政策利率以抑制通胀。
In contrast to the recent call for patience from some Fed officials, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday that the central bank still needs to raise its policy rate further to lower inflation, even if higher long-term yields are weighing on activity in some parts of the economy.
根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示,10月份美联储加息至少25个基点的概率已从一周前的约51%降至20.5%;不过市场预计12月会议上加息的概率仍高达84.5%。
The chance of a hike of at least 25 basis points in October stands at 20.5 per cent, from about 51 per cent a week ago, according to CME FedWatch, but markets are pricing in an 84.5 per cent chance of a hike at the December meeting.
澳大利亚联邦银行外汇策略师萨马拉·哈穆德在报告中指出:“由于美联储主席凯文·沃什并未给出明确政策指引,市场对每一项美国经济数据及官员讲话均反应剧烈。我们预计美联储会等到12月才会再度加息。” 美联储官员克里斯托弗·沃勒、尼尔·卡什卡里以及阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆均定于周三晚些时候发表讲话。此外,美联储还将公布8月份的消费者信贷数据,预计该数值将从7月的180.6亿美元降至150亿美元。
"With little forward guidance from Chair (Kevin) Warsh, markets have reacted sharply to each US data release and policymaker speech," Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Samara Hammoud said in a report. "We expect the Fed to wait until December before hiking again." Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are all due to speak later on Wednesday. The central bank is also scheduled to release consumer credit data, which is expected to show a decrease to $15 billion in August from $18.06 billion in July.
澳元兑美元汇率小幅下跌0.04%,至0.6979美元;新西兰元则下跌0.07%,报0.5617美元。
The Australian dollar weakened 0.04 per cent versus the greenback to $0.6979, while the kiwi slid 0.07 per cent to $0.5617.
加密货币方面,比特币价格下跌0.22%,至85,438.59美元;以太坊价格也下跌0.12%,报2,695.22美元。
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.22 per cent to $85,438.59, and ether declined 0.12 per cent to $2,695.22.