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美元跌势暂歇,市场聚焦美联储Dip in the dollar takes a breather with Fed in focus

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2026年3月24日拍摄的插图中所见的美元纸币。路透社/达多·鲁维奇/插图/资料照片U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

美元跌势周四暂歇,投资者开始为下周一系列央行会议做准备,预计日本、美国和欧洲将维持鹰派立场,利率维持不变。

A downdraft in the dollar took a pause on Thursday as investors began hunkering down ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week, where hawkish holds are expected on interest rates in Japan, the US and Europe.

货币市场看多美元,假设人工智能热潮将使美国经济持续繁荣,强劲增长支撑利率维持在较高水平更长时间。

The currency market is long the dollar on the assumption the AI boom keeps the US economy humming and that strong growth supports interest rates staying higher for longer.

英镑以及加元、澳元和新西兰元近期均触及兑美元数周高位,暗示美元多头头寸已略有回吐,尽管周四波动幅度较小。

Recent gains for sterling and currencies in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, all of which have lately touched their highest on the dollar in several weeks, suggest dollar bets have been pared a bit, though moves on Thursday were slight.

英镑早些时候触及一个月高位1.3409美元,受英国通胀高于预期支撑,报1.33955美元。

Sterling , which hit a one-month high of $1.3409 earlier in the week, has been supported hotter-than-expected British inflation and held at $1.33955.

澳元周三触及三周高位,守在70美分关口上方,报0.7025美元;预期新西兰下周加息推高新西兰元至一个月高位0.5709美元。

The Australian dollar , which made a three-week top on Wednesday, is hanging on above 70 US cents at $0.7025, while expectations for a rate hike next week in New Zealand hoisting the kiwi to a one-month high of $0.5709.

澳洲联储副行长安德鲁·豪泽周三表示,部分由于油价高企,通胀前景看起来“明显恶化”,推高市场对澳洲联储最早下月加息的押注。

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday that the inflation outlook was looking "materially worse" in part due to high oil prices, pushing up market bets on whether the next hike in Australia comes as soon as next month.

加拿大央行预计下周也将加息,加元在一个月高位附近获得支撑,报1美元兑1.4032加元。

The Bank of Canada is also expected to hike next week and the loonie was supported near a one-month top of C$1.4032 per dollar.

欧元和日元陷入窄幅震荡,干预威胁和加息前景支撑日元在158日元兑1美元附近。

The euro and yen have settled into tight ranges, with the threat of intervention and prospect of rate hikes holding Japan's currency around 158 to the dollar .

欧元已下滑约一个月,成为做多美元的首选渠道,法国财政担忧和欧洲能源脆弱性吸引了做空者。

The euro has spent about a month on the slide, emerging as a favoured channel for putting a bet on a stronger dollar, as fiscal concerns in France and Europe's energy fragility attract short sellers.

法国10年期国债收益率周三升至2022年以来最高,周末法国各地骚乱部分源于公共服务削减,凸显控制预算赤字在政治上有多困难。

French 10-year yields hit their highest since 2022 on Wednesday as weekend unrest across France, fuelled in part by cuts to public services, has highlighted how politically difficult it will be to bring budget deficits under control.

除周一上午亚洲时段稀薄交易中出现短暂回落外,欧元兑美元一直保持相对稳定,维持在1.12美元上方。

But aside from a brief dip in the thin trade of Monday morning in Asia, the euro has kept fairly steady above $1.12.

Spectra Markets总裁Brent Donnelly表示:“欧元既跌不下来,也涨不上去。我们处于僵局之中,利空消息的悬顶压力几乎完美抵消了市场仓位。”欧洲央行预计下周将基准利率维持在2.5%不变,尽管市场几乎已完全消化年内加息的预期。市场也已消化日本央行维持利率不变的预期,下一次加息——至1.5%——预计将在明年早些时候实施。

"The euro cannot sell off—and it cannot rally," said Spectra Markets' president Brent Donnelly. "We are in a stalemate where the overhang of bad news just about perfectly offsets the market positioning." The European Central Bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 2.5% next week, though a hike is all but priced in before the year's end. Markets have priced a hold in Tokyo, too, with the next hike — to 1.5% — expected early next year.

美联储预计10月维持利率不变,联邦基金利率目标区间为3.75%-4%,但将在12月加息。

The Federal Reserve is seen on hold in October, with the Fed funds rate window at 3.75-4%, but hiking in December.

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