东京 —— 即将到来的美国中期选举以及法国持续的动荡局势，预计将推动日元走强，市场观察人士预期美元和欧元将走弱。
TOKYO -- The yen looks poised for a boost from the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the ongoing turmoil in France, with observers anticipating declines in the dollar and euro.
本月以来，日元兑美元汇率在 158 日元至 156 日元上半区间的窄幅区间内波动。“如果民主党如预期那样获胜，将形成一种可以安心抛售美元的局面，”一家日本银行的外汇交易员表示。
Since the beginning of the month, the Japanese currency has fluctuated in a narrow band between 158 yen per dollar and the upper-156 yen range. "If the Democrats win as anticipated, it will create a situation where the dollar can be sold with peace of mind," said a currency dealer at a Japanese bank.
尽管下周日本、美国和欧洲的央行会议可能影响货币市场，但普遍共识是政策利率将维持不变。不过，市场观察人士预期，在 11 月 3 日美国中期选举后，美元兑日元将走弱。
Though central bank meetings in Japan, the U.S. and Europe next week could affect currency markets, the general consensus is policy rates will hold steady But market watchers expect the dollar to weaken against the yen after the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3.
根据 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等预测市场的数据，截至周四，民主党赢得参议院多数席位的几率近 70%，在众议院获得多数席位的几率约为 90%。
According to prediction markets, such as those hosted by Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats as of Thursday have a nearly 70% chance of winning the Senate and a roughly 90% chance of gaining a majority in the House of Representatives.
许多民主党政客主张监管人工智能并对数据中心征税。这种政策转变的前景可能会助长投机情绪，即由 AI 推动的牛市将放缓。由于借贷成本上升，AI 股票本月已陷于停滞。
Many Democratic politicians advocate for regulating artificial intelligence and taxing data centers. The prospect of such a shift will likely fuel speculation that the AI-fueled bull market will slow down. AI stocks have already stagnated this month due to higher borrowing costs.
“单边聚焦美元的局面可能会瓦解，”三井住友信托银行高级顾问加藤道义表示。
"The one-sided focus on the dollar may break down," said Michiyoshi Kato, a senior adviser at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
即使共和党保持多数席位，也鲜有人预测美元会大幅升值。上个月，美国总统特朗普表示，如果共和党同时保住参众两院多数，每位成年公民将获得 5000 美元。
Even if Republicans retain a majority of seats, few predict a sharp appreciation of the dollar. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump said every adult citizen will receive $5,000 if Republicans keep both houses of Congress.
“无论该言论是否准确，我认为美元会因财政和政策担忧而走弱，”瑞穗银行客户经理广金千秋表示。
"Regardless of the accuracy of the statement, I think the dollar would weaken due to fiscal and policy concerns," said Chiaki Hirokane, client manager at Resona Bank.
SBI FX Trade 执行顾问斋藤雄二表示，美国大选尘埃落定、政策议程明朗后，日元往往会对美元升值。
Yuji Saito, an executive adviser at SBI FX Trade, said the yen tends to appreciate against the dollar once U.S. elections are over and policy agendas become clearer.
“选举前积累的长美元头寸平仓将逐步进行，”齐藤表示，并补充称，货币政策以及美元的供需将是关键因素。
"The unwinding of the long dollar positions that built up before the election will proceed gradually," Saito said, adding that monetary policy as well as the supply and demand of the dollar will be key contributing factors.
根据齐藤的研究，在1986年至2022年间的10次中期选举中，有9次出现了日元在投票后的11月下旬至次年1月下旬期间对美元升值的情况。
For the 10 midterm elections between 1986 and 2022, the yen appreciated against the dollar between late November and late January following the vote in nine cases, according to Saito's research.
瑞银住友信托财富管理区域首席投资官青木大树正在关注上周公布的美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。因通胀超预期，美元一度走强，但随后因人工智能（AI）企业融资成本上升而走弱。
Daiju Aoki, regional chief investment officer at UBS SuMi Trust Wealth Management, is looking at last week's release of U.S. consumer price index data for September. The dollar temporarily strengthened because inflation exceeded expectations, but later weakened amid growing borrowing costs for AI companies.
“即使CPI数据强劲，美元也被抛售，”青木表示。“如果未来公布的统计数据显示资本支出和消费放缓，日元可能升值，有可能突破1美元兑155日元的关口。” 预计日元将继续对欧元保持强势。随着法国政治动荡和骚乱持续，法国10年期国债收益率周三升破5%，创24年新高。收益率上升意味着债券价格下跌。投资者可能正将部分股票和债券资金转移至日本，这通常会导致抛售欧元、买入日元。
"Even with strong CPI figures, the dollar was sold off," Aoki said. "If statistics showing a slowdown in capital expenditures and consumption are released going forward, the yen might appreciate, potentially breaking past the 155 yen to the dollar barrier." The yen is expected to continue its strong showing against the euro. As political instability and riots continue in France, the yield on French 10-year government bonds rose above 5% Wednesday, the highest level in 24 years. Higher yields indicate lower bond prices. Investors are likely shifting some of their money in stocks and bonds to Japan, which generally leads to euro sales and yen purchases.
本月以来，日元兑欧元汇率处于2025年11月以来的最强水平。
Since the start of this month, the yen has been trading at its strongest level against the euro since November 2025.
“今年年底前出现欧元走强的反转似乎不太可能，”三菱UFJ银行分析师川上辉正表示。
"A reversal toward a stronger euro by the end of this year seems unlikely," said Terumasa Kawakami, analyst at MUFG Bank.
在其他欧元区国家，西班牙将于11月举行大选，而德国总理弗里德里希·默茨的影响力已有所减弱。法国的抗议活动已蔓延至意大利和比利时。“除了法国之外，还有许多不确定因素，”川上表示。
In other euro countries, Spain will hold a general election in November, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's influence in Germany has waned. The protests in France have spread to Italy and Belgium. "There are many uncertainties beyond France," said Kawakami.
在本月对59位市场观察人士的一次快速调查中，44%的人表示他们认为到今年年底，日元将比美元和欧元升值更多。这一比例是6月调查中份额的两倍，并接近认为美元将升值最多的49%。
In a QUICK survey of 59 market observers this month, 44% said they believe the yen will strengthen more than the dollar and euro by the end of this year. That is double the share in the June survey and approaches the 49% who think the dollar will strengthen the most.