Malaysia’s repatriation of Myanmar nationals ahead of a visit to Kuala Lumpur by the war-torn country’s leader appears to mirror efforts by other Asean countries seeking to mend ties with Naypyidaw.

Several members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have stepped up engagement with Myanmar at the bilateral level recently, raising questions about whether a gradual normalisation between the bloc and the country could undermine efforts to end its civil war, according to analysts.

Nearly 1,500 Myanmar nationals repatriated from Malaysia arrived in southern Yangon on Sunday, said regional government minister Nay Lin Tun.

Under the repatriation scheme – which has drawn criticism from human rights groups and the United Nations refugee agency – 1,479 returnees were transported from Malaysia aboard two navy warships and a hospital ship.

They are among 5,000 Myanmar nationals slated for phased repatriation from Malaysia, where more than 10,300 others remain in immigration detention centres, according to the country’s Home Ministry.

The repatriation coincided with preparations in Kuala Lumpur to host Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim saying on Tuesday that the newly elected leader would visit Malaysia “in the next few days”.

Min Aung Hlaing, the former leader of Myanmar’s military junta who was elected president in April after a controversial election several months earlier dominated by an army-backed party, would be among several foreign leaders visiting Kuala Lumpur in October, state news agency Bernama quoted Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil as saying last week.

Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since a 2021 coup led by Min Aung Hlaing ousted the National League for Democracy government.

Rejecting accusations that Malaysia was returning the Myanmar nationals without regard for their safety, Anwar said last month that continued engagement was necessary to resolve long-standing issues, adding that his government would hold more talks with Myanmar to facilitate additional returns.

Khoo Ying Hooi, an associate professor of international relations and human rights at the University of Malaya, said Malaysia’s repatriation efforts had raised concerns.

“I would be careful about calling this definitively a quid pro quo unless we know what was actually agreed between the two sides,” Khoo said. “Still, given the timing of the repatriation and Min’s upcoming visit, it is difficult not to see a connection.”She added that the move could set a worrying precedent if the migrant issue were to become part of wider talks with Myanmar.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees was denied access to the Myanmar nationals, preventing any assessment of whether their return was voluntary, according to media reports.

“Malaysia can pursue its national interests, but those interests should not come at the expense of basic protection safeguards,” Khoo said, noting that Thailand had repeatedly deported Myanmar nationals.

“The danger is that, as governments focus on getting people out of their own countries, much less attention is paid to whether it is actually safe for them to go back,” she added.

According to rights group Fortify Rights, Thailand worked with Myanmar to forcibly return over 3,500 Myanmar nationals via the Ranong-Kawthaung border crossing between February 2024 and late 2025, a practice that continues today.

Khoo noted that Malaysia’s former foreign minister Saifuddin Abdullah was particularly critical of the junta and pushed for the 11-member Asean to engage a wider range of actors in Myanmar’s conflict.

“But that approach also had its limits,” Khoo said, citing poor progress on Asean’s Five-Point Consensus, with Malaysia and other members of the bloc failing to translate strong language into tangible changes in Myanmar, referring to the bloc’s peace plan adopted in 2021 to tackle the crisis in Myanmar.

The Anwar administration is more inclined to resolve concerns with Myanmar at the bilateral level, such as repatriation and practical security cooperation, according to Khoo.

In recent months, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam have hosted Min Aung Hlaing, while Asean foreign ministers had initiated what officials described as a “calibrated re-engagement” with his government in July.

While maintaining open lines of communication was crucial, allowing bilateral interests to drive normalisation without progress on ending the civil war, dialogue and humanitarian access was not an ideal way to deal with the Myanmar crisis, she said.

“Taken together, they [these meetings] begin to look like a gradual normalisation of his [Min Aung Hlaing’s] government without a corresponding improvement on the ground. That weakens Asean’s collective leverage,” Khoo cautioned.

On Monday, Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights urged Malaysia not to confer legitimacy on Myanmar’s leadership byg agreements or issuing joint statements.

“[Malaysia should] extend no further invitations to Min Aung Hlaing,” the advocacy group said, calling on Kuala Lumpur to suspend repatriations until the safety of the returnees could be guaranteed.

“Malaysia should not be receiving Min Aung Hlaing at all. Every red carpet rolled out for him tells the people of Myanmar, who live under air strikes and forced conscription, that the region has made its peace with what is being done to them,” said APHR chair Mercy Chriesty Barends.

Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia, said Asean and the global community had failed to take firm action to improve the Myanmar situation. He pointed out that Malaysia also sent back large numbers of Vietnamese boatpeople in the 1970s and 1980s.

“As with previous spans of military rule in Myanmar, the regime will gradually come to be accepted, or at least tolerated, by most if not all,” Oh said. “That’s just the cold, harsh fact of realpolitik.”Hunter Marston, Southeast Asia director at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, said Bangladesh, which shelters over 1.2 million Rohingya from Myanmar, had taken a different approach by not returning displaced Myanmar nationals to their country.

“This is more of a one-of-a-kind situation in which Anwar is seeking to bolster his domestic political credentials in response to recent setbacks at the ballot box,” Marston said.

Following the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition’s losses in elections in Negeri Sembilan and other states, Anwar has rolled out populist policies and promised to carry out various reforms.

While Malaysia continued to focus on the Five-Point Consensus in line with Asean’s stance, Marston said the bloc and Kuala Lumpur differed in terms of their actions in dealing with Myanmar.

“[This] leaves room for ambiguity and uncertainty regarding the direction of their policies,” he added.