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解释性报道——伊朗铀浓缩项目的现状The status of Iran's uranium enrichment programme

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维也纳,10月7日——美国副总统JD·万斯周二对路透社表示,伊朗必须“切实”削减其铀浓缩能力,才能满足美国的要求并结束两国之间持续了七个月的冲突。

VIENNA, Oct 7 - US Vice President JD Vance told Reuters on Tuesday Iran must make a "meaningful" reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the countries' seven-month war.

虽然万斯的具体意图尚不明朗,但下文将概述目前已知的以及尚不清楚的有关伊朗铀浓缩计划现状的信息。该计划是伊朗核基础设施的核心部分。美以轰炸前,伊朗拥有多少浓缩铀?

While it is not clear what exactly he meant, below is a summary of what is known, and not, about the current status of Iran's uranium enrichment programme, which is at the heart of its nuclear infrastructure. WHAT DID IRAN HAVE BEFORE THE US AND ISRAEL BOMBED?

去年6月13日,以色列对伊朗的核设施发动空袭,随后美国也加入行动。在为期12天的打击中,两国摧毁或严重破坏了当时已知正在运行的3处铀浓缩设施。

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 of last year, soon followed by the United States. In a 12-day campaign, they destroyed or badly damaged the three uranium-enrichment facilities that were known to be operating in Iran at the time.

美方称,伊朗已接近具备制造核武器的能力;但联合国核监督机构国际原子能机构则表示,并无可靠证据表明伊朗存在有组织的核武器研发计划。

They argued that Iran was getting too close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon, but the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said it had no credible indication of a coordinated weapons programme.

不过,当时伊朗已将铀浓缩至纯度达60%的程度,这一水平距离武器级铀所需的约90%纯度仅一步之遥。

Iran was, however, enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons grade.

在美以发动空袭前,国际原子能机构能够进入伊朗所有已申报的核设施,包括各铀浓缩工厂。据该机构估算,空袭开始时伊朗拥有约440.9公斤纯度最高达60%的浓缩铀。

The IAEA, which had access to all Iran's declared nuclear sites, including its enrichment plants, until the US-Israeli bombing campaign, estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% when the first bombs fell.

按照国际原子能机构的标准,这些铀若进一步浓缩,足以制造10枚核武器。此外,伊朗还拥有大量纯度较低的浓缩铀储备。

That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick. Iran also had stocks of uranium enriched to lower levels.

迄今为止,没有任何其他国家能在不制造核武器的情况下将铀浓缩至如此高的水平。美国及其欧洲盟友认为此举毫无民用必要性;国际原子能机构也指出,如此高的浓缩水平及庞大的产量令人深感担忧。目前还剩多少浓缩铀?

No other country has enriched uranium to such a high level without producing nuclear weapons. The US and its European allies say there is no civil justification. The IAEA said the enrichment level and quantity produced were of serious concern. WHAT REMAINS?

伊朗尚未向国际原子能机构说明空袭后还有多少浓缩铀留存,也未透露这些铀的具体位置。自遭到袭击以来,伊朗亦不允许国际原子能机构的核查人员重返这些设施。

Iran has not told the IAEA how much of its enriched uranium survived the attacks or informed it of its whereabouts. It has also not let IAEA inspectors return to the bombed sites since they were attacked.

据国际原子能机构称,在三座铀浓缩工厂中,只有位于纳坦兹核设施内、位于地面上的那座遭到了摧毁。另外两座分别位于纳坦兹和福尔多,至少也遭受了严重破坏,目前普遍认为已无法使用。

Of the three enrichment plants, the only above-ground one, at the sprawling Natanz nuclear facility, was destroyed, the IAEA has said. The other two, at Natanz and Fordow, were at least badly damaged and are widely believed to be out of action.

在以色列发动袭击的前一天,伊朗通知国际原子能机构称,其正在伊斯法罕新建一座铀浓缩工厂。外交人士指出,该工厂位于当地的一个隧道网络中,而这一区域似乎并未受到美国轰炸的明显影响。不过国际原子能机构表示,目前尚不清楚该工厂的现状以及其中是否存有核材料。

The day before Israel attacked, Iran informed the IAEA it was opening a new enrichment plant at Isfahan, which diplomats say is in a network of tunnels there that appears largely unscathed from US bombing. The IAEA says it does not know the status of that plant or whether it contains nuclear material.

虽然部分伊朗浓缩铀在美以联合打击中遭到破坏,但国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西在3月份曾表示,该机构认为目前仍有“略多于200公斤”的浓缩度达60%的铀留在伊斯法罕的隧道群中,另有部分则仍存于纳坦兹。那么,伊朗的铀浓缩能力究竟处于何种水平呢?

While some of Iran's enriched uranium will have been destroyed in the US-Israeli strikes, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said in March his agency believes "a bit more than 200 kg" of Iran's uranium enriched to up to 60% remains in the tunnel complex at Isfahan, with some also still at Natanz. WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE IRAN'S ENRICHMENT CAPACITY?

即便是伊朗的死敌以色列,也并未声称伊朗当前仍在进行铀浓缩活动。伊朗需要多长时间才能重新启动相关生产目前尚不可知,但只要其60%浓缩度的铀储备仍有相当数量留存,理论上只需较少的离心机及其他设备便可将其进一步浓缩至武器级水平。

Not even Iran's arch-foe Israel alleges Iran is currently enriching uranium. How long it would need to restart is an open question, but as long as a significant portion of its 60% stock remains, it could in principle enrich to weapons grade with relatively little effort and few machines known as centrifuges.

2015年,伊朗与多个大国达成协议,赋予国际原子能机构更多核查权限,包括对离心机及其零部件数量实施监督。

A 2015 deal between Iran and major powers gave the IAEA extra inspection powers, including oversight of the number of centrifuges and parts for them.

然而,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2018年宣布退出该协议,导致协议名存实亡,国际原子能机构也从此无法掌握这些离心机的确切数量与位置。如今它们的具体数目及去向均成未知数。那么,伊朗要如何削减自身的铀浓缩能力呢?

US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from that deal in 2018 prompted its collapse and the IAEA lost track of those machines. Their current number and whereabouts is unknown. THEN HOW CAN IRAN REDUCE ITS CAPACITY?

鉴于目前并无迹象表明伊朗仍在进行铀浓缩,任何所谓的“能力削减”其实都是相对于其以往的强大产能而言的。这种削减可能体现在浓缩铀的纯度、产量或浓缩工厂的数量等方面。

Given that Iran is not currently known to be enriching, any reduction is likely to be compared to its previous capacity, which was significant. A reduction could refer to purity, output or the number of enrichment sites.