伊朗的核终局是什么？埃琳娜·法哈迪 2026年9月30日 随着德黑兰辩论是否退出核不扩散条约，伊朗的核计划正进入关键阶段。卫星图像也显示已知核设施处有活动迹象。
What is Iran's nuclear endgame? Elina Farhadi September 30, 2026 Iran's nuclear program is entering a critical phase as Tehran debates dropping out of a nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Satellite images also show activity at known nuclear sites.
伊朗核计划内部正在发生什么仍不清楚，伊朗的核计划已进入其历史上最关键的时期之一。
What is happening inside Iran's nuclear program remains unclear Iran 's nuclear program has entered one of the most critical periods in its history.
关于德黑兰60%浓缩铀库存的问题，以及国际原子能机构（IAEA）对伊朗核设施监督力度的减弱，只会加深不确定性。然而，外交迹象依然存在。
Questions over Tehran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% and the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) declining oversight of Iranian nuclear facilities have only deepened the uncertainty. Yet signs of diplomacy remain.
上周，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬在接受美国福克斯新闻采访时称，只要能在国际法框架内以及具有里程碑意义的《不扩散核武器条约》框架内达成全面协议，德黑兰准备稀释其浓缩铀库存，并允许对其核计划进行国际核查。然而，伊朗方面存在相互矛盾的说法。与佩泽希齐扬的外交辞令形成对比的是，德黑兰军方和政治人物的言论指向了另一个方向。
In an interview last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told US broadcaster Fox News that Tehran is prepared to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile and submit its nuclear program for international inspection, provided a comprehensive agreement is reached within the framework of international law and the landmark Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Conflicting statements from Iran However, in contrast to Pezeshkian's diplomatic rhetoric, statements from military and political figures in Tehran point in a different direction.
伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊表示，美国和以色列的行动为伊朗退出《不扩散核武器条约》提供了理由，但他强调尚未做出任何决定。这一消息来自伊朗政府主要的英语卫星电视频道Press TV。
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said that US and Israeli actions had created grounds for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, while stressing that no decision had yet been made, according to Press TV, the Iranian government's main English-language satellite TV channel.
9月19日，英国《每日电讯报》援引卫星图像报道称，伊朗正在积极建设新设施并重建受损设施。
On September 19, British newspaper The Daily Telegraph citing satellite imagery, reported that Iran was actively constructing new facilities and rebuilding damaged ones.
这些地点包括德黑兰东南郊帕尔钦综合体内的“塔莱甘2”设施，以及位于伊朗纳坦兹核设施附近、被称为“镐山”的山体下方的一个综合体。
These sites include "Taleghan 2" at the Parchin complex southeast of Tehran and a complex burrowed under what is known as Pickaxe Mountain near Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz.
这两个军事基地此前都曾在美国和以色列对伊朗的军事行动中遭到轰炸。美国国防部将此次行动称为“Epic Fury”（“史诗般的愤怒”），而以色列则将其称为“Roaring Lion”（“咆哮的狮子”）。据报道，这些基地的重建工作引发了人们的猜测：相关设备以及经过浓缩的铀可能已被转移到更深的地下。
Both sites were previously targeted in airstrikes during the US-Israel war with Iran which the Pentagon dubbed Operation Epic Fury and Israel called Operation Roaring Lion Their reported reconstruction has fueled speculation that equipment and enriched uranium may have been moved deeper underground.
华盛顿方面一直保持强硬立场。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在9月22日的联合国大会上表示：“我绝不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。外交手段还能发挥作用吗？”
Washington has maintained a firm stance. Speaking at the UN General Assembly on September 22, US President Donald Trump said: "I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon Can diplomacy still work?
长期以来，进入这些军事基地以及国际原子能机构（IAEA）的视察范围一直是与伊朗核计划相关的问题中最具争议的方面。
Access to military sites and the scope of IAEA inspections have long been among the most contentious issues related to Iran's nuclear program.
2015年达成的《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）对伊朗实施了严格的限制，作为解除制裁的交换条件，旨在阻止伊朗发展核武器。然而，该协议中关于军事基地视察的条款一直受到华盛顿内部反对者的批评；这些批评最终导致美国在唐纳德·特朗普执政期间于2018年退出了该协议。
The 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed significant restrictions on Iran, in exchange for sanctions relief, to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. However, provisions for the inspection of military sites drew persistent criticism from opponents in Washington, criticism that contributed to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA under Donald Trump in 2018.
前美国国家安全顾问、前驻联合国大使约翰·博尔顿在接受德国之声（DW）采访时表示，针对伊朗核计划的外交努力及过去的协议只不过是“德黑兰所推行的一贯策略的掩护”。他认为伊朗的核武器开发计划“从未真正停止”，并指出了国际机构的局限性，称“国际原子能机构从未能够进入伊朗的军事基地——而这些基地正是制造核武器所需关键组件的所在地”。
John Bolton, former US national security adviser and former US ambassador to the UN, told DW that diplomatic efforts and past agreements on Iran's nuclear program are merely a "cover for an unalterable strategy pursued by Tehran." Arguing that Iran's weapons program was "never" truly halted, Bolton pointed to what he described as the limitations of international institutions, adding that "the IAEA never had access to Iran's military bases, where critical components related to weaponization take place."
当被问及伊朗可能退出《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）的法律后果时，博尔顿表示伊朗多年来一直违反该条约的规定，因此其正式退出实际上并不会带来太大影响。
When asked about the legal implications of a potential Iranian withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Bolton argued that Iran has been in violation of the NPT for more than three decades, meaning a formal withdrawal would make little practical difference.
“实现中东和平与安全的唯一长期途径，”博尔顿强调，“就是推翻德黑兰的政权。”在美国与以色列对伊朗的战争，以及前伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊去世后德黑兰领导层发生的变化背景下，伊朗的核决心变得更加坚定。如果无法达成协议，特朗普威胁要“彻底摧毁”伊朗。
9 月 9 日，国际原子能机构（IAEA）理事会以伊朗涉嫌违反核不扩散义务为由，将伊朗问题提交给了联合国安理会。
"The only long-term path to achieving peace and security in the Middle East," Bolton emphasized, "is the overthrow of the regime in Tehran." War steels Tehran's nuclear resolve Amid the US-Israel war with Iran and the subsequent changes in Tehran's command structure after the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fresh developments have emerged. Trump threatens to 'annihilate' Iran if no deal is reached To view this video , and The IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran to the UN Security Council on September 9 over alleged breaches of its non-proliferation obligations.
与此同时，根据《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》（该备忘录延长了双方之间的停火协议），与美国的 technical talks（技术谈判）的 60 天期限已于 8 月中旬到期。
Meanwhile, the 60-day period for technical talks with the United States under the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding which extended a ceasefire between the two sides, expired in mid-August.
海牙应用科学大学的政治分析师兼讲师达蒙·戈尔利兹认为，与唐纳德·特朗普所声称的“通过削弱伊朗核能力来留下政治遗产”的观点相反，一个拥有核武器的伊朗最终会成为“唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内最重大的外交政策遗产”。
Damon Golriz, a political analyst and lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, argues that, contrary to Donald Trump's view of his legacy in dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities, a nuclear-armed Iran would ultimately prove to be "the greatest foreign policy legacy of Donald Trump's presidency."
在回顾 2026 年的军事局势以及哈梅内伊在以色列空袭中丧生的事件时，戈尔利兹表示：“2026 年 2 月，德黑兰面临了一场关乎国家存亡的战争。那场战争摧毁了伊朗的核设施，还杀死了该国许多关键的核科学家以及伊朗高层军事和安全机构的成员。”
Reflecting on the military developments of 2026 and the killing of Khamenei in an Israeli air strike Golriz said: "In February 2026 Tehran faced an existential war." "The campaign entombed its nuclear facilities and decapitated its key weapons scientists, along with at least five tiers of Iran's top military and security establishment," Golriz added.
以色列刺杀最高领袖，使一个根本性的安全问题有了答案：作为阻止伊朗拥有核武器的主要因素，阿亚图拉哈梅内伊是否已经不再发挥作用？
"Israel's killing of the supreme leader settled a fundamental security question: Has Ayatollah Khamenei as the main constraint on Iran's nuclear bomb became obsolete?"
戈尔里兹认为，正是针对伊朗领导层时展现出的胆略，颠覆了该国的国家安全思维，从而“强化了重新评估其核学说的呼声”。检验德黑兰在核问题上的宗教说辞。禁止生产并储存核武器的宗教法令长期以来一直是德黑兰外交说辞的基石，德黑兰借此宣称其核计划用于和平 purposes。
Golriz suggests that it was specifically the audacity shown in the targeting of Iran's leadership that upended the country's national security thinking, thereby "strengthening calls to reassess its nuclear doctrine." Testing Tehran's religious rhetoric on nukes The official religious decree, or fatwa, banning the production and stockpiling of nuclear weapons has long been a cornerstone of Tehran's diplomatic rhetoric in claiming its nuclear program is peaceful.
这份教令最早由伊朗官员在2000年代中期提出，2019年哈梅内伊再次予以确认，并表示禁止生产及储存核武器。伊朗战争是否损害了核不扩散努力？
First cited by Iranian officials in the mid-2000s, the fatwa was reaffirmed by Khamenei in 2019, when he said producing and stockpiling nuclear weapons was forbidden. Has Iran war harmed nuclear nonproliferation efforts?
然而，随着德黑兰政治局势的发展，以及穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自成为新任最高领袖以来始终未重申这份教令，人们开始质疑：这条宗教红线是否依然有效，还是已经让位于新的安全考量。
However, amid political developments in Tehran and Mojtaba Khamenei's silence on reaffirming this fatwa since becoming the new supreme leader, questions have been raised whether this religious red line remains intact or has given way to new security considerations.
鸟观察者集团首席执行官、荷兰情报与安全总局前高级情报官员蒂姆·博什指出，在德黑兰军方人士纷纷发表相关言论的背景下，这一沉默具有重要意义。
Thim Bosch, CEO of the Birdwatcher Group and a former senior intelligence officer with the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), pointed to the significance of this silence alongside rhetoric from military figures in Tehran.
博什告诉德国之声，目前没有确凿证据表明德黑兰的核学说发生了正式变化。
Bosch told DW that there is no definitive proof of a formal change in Tehran's nuclear doctrine.
“然而，德黑兰内部反对获取核武器的力量如今已大为削弱；鉴于穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊没有重申其父亲的教令，这一判断具有重要意义。”他说。
"However, those opposed to acquiring nuclear weapons in Tehran are now far weaker, and given Mojtaba Khamenei's silence in reiterating his father's fatwa, this observation carries significant weight," he said.
2024年12月，国际原子能机构评估称，伊朗是唯一一个拥有浓缩丰度达到60%的铀、却尚未拥有核武器的国家，同时警告德黑兰正在“大幅加快”浓缩进程。制造核武器需要纯度达到90%的浓缩铀。
In December 2024, the IAEA assessed that Iran was the only country without a nuclear bomb to posses uranium enriched to 60%, while warning Tehran was "dramatically accelerating" enrichment A purity of 90% is needed to produce nuclear weapons.
然而，国际原子能机构（IAEA）被禁止进行核查，伊朗目前究竟发展到了何种程度，谁也说不准。
However, with the IAEA barred from inspections, it is anyone's guess as to how far along Iran currently is.
博什说：“如果世界的核监督机构无法观察到浓缩铀，任何情报机构都无法诚实地声称自己知道伊朗是否已经作出制造炸弹的最终决定。”
"If the world's nuclear watchdog cannot observe enriched uranium, no intelligence agency can honestly claim to know whether Iran has made the final decision to build a bomb," Bosch said.
他补充说：“那些声称绝对确定‘他们已经作出了决定’的人，要么是在虚张声势，要么主要是在推进自己的政治议程：一边是伊朗的强硬派，另一边则是以色列和美国的强硬派。”编辑：基思·沃克
"Those who claim with absolute certainty that 'they have made their decision' are either bluffing or mostly advancing their own political agendas: hardliners in Iran on one side, and hardliners in Israel and the United States on the other," he added. Edited by: Keith Walker