CNBC的吉姆·克ramer周三表示，不断上升的借贷成本正在将股市划分为两个阵营：受债券市场制约的公司，以及似乎基本不受利率上升影响的人工智能企业。
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wednesday that rising borrowing costs are dividing the stock market into two camps: companies constrained by the bond market and artificial intelligence businesses that seem largely insulated from higher rates.
这位《疯狂金钱》节目的主持人表示，周三的10年期国债拍卖让他回想起自己经营对冲基金的日子。当时，投资者在购买股票前会等待政府债券销售结果，因为一次表现不佳的拍卖可能导致利率上升、股价下跌。
The "Mad Money" host said Wednesday's 10-year Treasury note auction reminded him of his hedge fund days, when investors waited for the results of government bond sales before buying stocks because a poorly received sale could send rates higher and equities lower.
周三的390亿美元国债拍卖吸引了强劲需求，帮助国债收益率从当天早些时候的数十年来高位回落。然而，由于基准10年期国债收益率一度升至5.365%，创下自2002年4月以来的最高水平，投资者受到惊吓，股市最终以下跌收盘。克ramer表示，市场重新关注国债拍卖，凸显了借贷成本对股票的重要性。
Wednesday's $39 billion auction drew strong demand, helping bring Treasury yields off their multidecade highs earlier in the day. Still, stocks ended the day lower after investors were spooked by the benchmark 10-year yield briefly climbing to 5.365%, its highest level since April 2002. Cramer said the market's renewed focus on Treasury auctions underscores how much borrowing costs matter for stocks.
“任何需要等待国债拍卖结果才能判断的市场，都不如那些不受国债拍卖影响的市场那么理想，”克ramer说。“每次在公式中增加一个新的变量，都会让持有股票变得更加困难。”更高的利率可能对经济多个领域产生连锁反应。克ramer指出，金融、住房、公用事业、娱乐、零售、汽车和工业等部门的公司或其客户都严重依赖信贷。
"Any market where you need to wait to see the results of a Treasury auction is simply not as good as a market where you don't care about them," Cramer said. "Every time you add a new variable into the equation, it makes owning stocks tougher." Higher rates can ripple across much of the economy. Cramer pointed to finance, housing, utilities, entertainment, retail, autos and industrials as sectors where companies or their customers depend heavily on credit.
不过，他表示，与人工智能相关的公司似乎遵循着不同的规则。据克ramer称，数据中心建设商、半导体公司、电力供应商和网络安全公司的限制要小得多，因为贷款机构仍然热衷于为它们的增长提供资金。这也解释了为何近期股市走势如此集中：本周，人工智能股票推动标准普尔500指数重回历史新高。
However, he said AI-related companies appear to play by different rules. Data center builders, semiconductor companies, power providers and cybersecurity firms are far less constrained, according to Cramer, because lenders remain eager to finance their growth. And that also explains why the stock market has lately been so narrow, with AI stocks leading the S&P 500 back to record highs this week.
“他们似乎可以随心所欲地借款，”克ramer说道。“他们对资金的需求正在挤占其他借款人的空间。”SpaceX就是一个例子。据《金融时报》报道，埃隆·马斯克的火箭和人工智能公司计划借款400亿美元，用于购买英伟达的芯片以建设数据中心，并出售由此产生的计算能力——这与其目前与Alphabet旗下谷歌和Anthropic的合作模式如出一辙。尽管SpaceX的信用评级仅为BBB，且潜在借款规模巨大，但克ramer认为，由于市场对人工智能的热烈追捧，该公司仍可能获得相对有利的借款条款。
"They seem to be able to borrow at their leisure," Cramer said. "They're crowding out other borrowers with their demand for money." SpaceX is one example. According to a Financial Times report, Elon Musk's rocket and AI company is looking to borrow $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips for data centers and sell the resulting computing power, as it already does with Alphabet's Google and Anthropic. Despite SpaceX's BBB credit rating and the size of the potential borrowing, Cramer expects it could secure relatively attractive terms because of enthusiasm around AI.
“如果换成任何与数据中心无关的公司，其[借款]利率肯定会飙升，”克ramer说。“但数据中心公司则不会。”他将此与最近更名为Skydance的公司进行了对比：该公司近期在收购华纳兄弟探索公司时发行了类似规模的债务。然而，由于投资者担忧电影和电视行业面临的经济敏感挑战——包括用户取消订阅和广告收入压力——其债券价格迅速下跌。
"If it were any non-data center related company, its [borrowing] rate would skyrocket," Cramer said. "Not the data centers, though." He contrasted that with the newly named Skydance, which recently issued a similar amount of debt as part of its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The bonds quickly fell as investors weighed challenges facing the economically sensitive movie and television businesses, including cord cutting and advertising pressure. The contrast underscores Cramer's larger point: traditional companies remain vulnerable to higher borrowing costs, while AI businesses are largely escaping those same credit concerns.
这种对比凸显了克ramer的核心观点：传统企业仍然容易受到更高借款成本的影响，而人工智能企业却基本避开了同样的信用担忧。这种分野也反映在股市上，克ramer甚至将人工智能股票称为“受祝福”的标的。
The bifurcation has been showing up in the stock market, with Cramer calling AI stocks "sainted" names. "The AI data center stocks, aside from maybe Oracle, have nothing to do with what price the Federal government borrows at," Cramer said. "They only have to do with a future that's considered so bright that it obscures any problems, any bumps, even any pimples.
“除了甲骨文可能例外，人工智能数据中心股票与联邦政府的借款利率毫无关系，”克ramer说。“它们只与一个被视作极其光明的未来有关，这个未来足以掩盖任何问题、任何波动，甚至任何小瑕疵。美国其他企业要是能有这种运气就好了。”
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