多个两党共同支持的州政府正在支持新泽西州的诉求，即请求最高法院裁定各州有权对预测市场实施监管。这些州警告称，下级法院的法官们对此问题“完全困惑且意见不一”。上个月，新泽西州向最高法院递交请愿书，希望就这一在下级法院引发争议的问题作出裁决。虽然最高法院通常会驳回绝大多数案件，但此次会议期间他们计划闭门审议该案。
A bipartisan group of states are backing New Jersey’s request for the Supreme Court to declare that states can regulate prediction markets, warning that lower judges are “hopelessly confused and divided.”Last month, New Jersey petitioned the justices to decide the issue that has been bubbling up in the lower courts. The justices turn away the vast majority of cases but are set to consider hearing it at a closed-door meeting later this term.
以Kalshi和Polymarket为代表的各大预测市场平台——这些平台得到了特朗普政府的支持——则认为应由联邦政府而非各州来实施监管。
Major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — supported by the Trump administration — say the federal government should be in control, not states.
“预测市场的观点是错误的，”这些州在周三提交给法院的法庭之友意见书中这样写道。
“The prediction markets are wrong,” the group of states wrote in their amicus brief supporting New Jersey, docketed on Wednesday.
“他们无法通过更名或表面上的调整就剥夺各州的核心主权权力。我们的宪法体制远比这种做法更为稳固。联邦制的原则也确保了各州不会轻易丧失保护本国民众的能力。”这个由两党共同组成的联盟由俄亥俄州总检察长安迪·威尔逊（共和党人）牵头，成员包括哥伦比亚特区及其他38个州。各州原本就拥有广泛的权力来监管和征税境内的博彩活动，但预测市场平台则坚称其产品与传统博彩形式存在本质区别。
“They cannot strip the States of their core sovereign power through relabeling and window-dressing,” the brief continued. “Our constitutional structure is much more durable than that. And the promise of federalism ensures that States do not lose their ability to protect their citizens so easily.”The bipartisan coalition was led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson (R) and joined by the District of Columbia and 38 other states States retain broad authority to regulate and tax gambling in their borders, but prediction markets argue their products are distinct from those traditional offerings.
Kalshi等平台主张，根据联邦法律其产品应被归类为“掉期合约”，从而受联邦商品期货交易委员会管辖。然而各州政府指出，这种解释会破坏现有的博彩监管体系，相当于拆除了“安全护栏”，进而危及民众安全。
Platforms like Kalshi say their products should be deemed “swaps” under federal law, which would place it under the authority of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The states, however, said that theory would undermine their gambling regulations, arguing it eliminates “guardrails” and threatens their citizens’ safety.
“全国绝大多数州在此问题上立场一致，这一点理应足以说明问题，”这些州在意见书中强调。
“That almost all the nation’s States have spoken with one voice on the matter should be enough,” they wrote.
去年，Kalshi 起诉新泽西州，试图阻止该州对公司执行赌博相关法律，此案随后上诉至最高法院。此前，该公司在美国第三巡回上诉法院胜诉，这一判决反映了全美各上诉法院之间逐渐形成的分歧。
The case arrived at the Supreme Court after Kalshi sued New Jersey last year to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against the company. The company won before the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, part of an emerging split among the appeals courts around the country.
如今，新泽西州首次将这一问题提交至最高法院，此举也获得了美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）的支持。
As the Garden State now brings the issue to the justices for the first time, it has also garnered support from the National Football League (NFL).
NFL 对消费者金融保护局（CFTC）是否拥有足够资源来确保预测市场“不会危及比赛的公正性”表示担忧。NFL 在周四提交的诉状中写道：“这一切与各州的博彩监管机构形成了鲜明对比，这些机构多年来一直与 NFL 合作，建立了结构性保障机制，以确保比赛的公正性。”
The NFL raised concerns about whether the CFTC has sufficient resources to ensure prediction markets “do not jeopardize game integrity.”“All this stands in stark contrast to state gaming authorities, which have engaged with the NFL for years to establish structural safeguards that provide core integrity protections,” the NFL wrote in its brief, filed on Thursday.