预测市场平台 Kalshi 与美国各州就谁应监管该行业的法律争端最终可能上诉至最高法院，Kalshi 联合创始人 Tarek Mansour 告诉路透社。
A legal clash between prediction markets and US states over who should regulate the industry could eventually end up at the Supreme Court, Tarek Mansour, the co-founder of Kalshi, told Reuters.
“我认为程序将按其应有的方式进行，”作为该平台首席执行官的 Mansour 在路透社“Econ World”播客节目中表示。
"I think the process will play out the way it’s going to play out," Mansour, who is chief executive of the platform, said on the Reuters Econ World podcast.
数十个州已就 Kalshi 上的体育相关交易采取法律行动。Kalshi 是一个预测市场平台，为用户提供关于从下个月中期选举后哪个政党将控制国会，到谁将赢得当前季《与星共舞》等各类事件的“是或否”押注。各州称，像 Kalshi 这样的预测市场受州赌博法律和赌博税约束。Kalshi 则辩称其押注不属于赌博，应免受州政府监管。公司表示，其平台上交易的体育合约属于一种金融衍生品，受商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）联邦监管。
Dozens of states have taken legal action over sports-related trades on Kalshi, a prediction markets platform that offers users yes-or-no bets on everything from which political party will control Congress after next month's midterms to who will win the current season of "Dancing with the Stars." The states say prediction markets like Kalshi are subject to state gambling laws and gambling taxes. Kalshi argues that its wagers aren’t gambling and should be exempt from state supervision. The company says sports contracts traded on its platform are a type of financial derivative and are subject to federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
联邦上诉法院目前判决不一，Kalshi 在一些近期案件中败诉。但该平台在新泽西州提起的诉讼中赢得了一场重大的上诉法院胜利，新泽西州已请求最高法院复审。
Federal appeals courts have so far split, with Kalshi on the losing end of some recent cases. But the platform secured a big appeals court victory in the action brought against it by New Jersey, which has asked for a Supreme Court review.
Mansour 拒绝就 Kalshi 若最高法院同意受理案件的胜算发表评论，但表示公司对其法律立场非常有信心。
Mansour declined to comment on Kalshi’s odds of winning if the Supreme Court agrees to take up the case, but said the company was very confident in its legal position.
“坦白说，法规和架构非常、非常清晰，无论人们是否认为体育比赛是一种游戏，《商品交易法》赋予了 CFTC 决定如何处理该游戏、以其认为适当的方式对其进行监管的权力，而这正是它正在做的事情。”这关乎一个蓬勃发展行业的未来。据知情人士透露，随着体育博彩的爆发式增长，预测市场近年来激增，帮助推动 Kalshi 在新一轮融资中的估值达到约 400 亿美元。
"Frankly, the statute and the structure is very, very clear and, you know, whether people think a sports game is a game, this commodities exchange act gave the CFTC the authority to decide what to do with the game, and to regulate it the way it sees fit, and that's what it's doing." At stake is the future of a booming industry. The prediction market has surged in recent years with an explosion in sports betting, helping drive Kalshi’s valuation to around $40 billion in a new funding round, according to people familiar with the matter.
曼苏尔表示，目前体育类业务占其营收的近 65%，而九个月前这一比例约为 95%。
Mansour said sports currently accounts for close to 65% of its revenue, compared to around 95% nine months ago.
如果卡尔希在最高法院获胜，将巩固其在预测市场领域的领导者地位，并助推其成为一个涵盖多种资产类别的一站式交易平台，与芝加哥商品交易所集团和洲际交易所（纽约证券交易所的母公司）等传统交易所巨头展开竞争。如果败诉，该公司将面临希望严格管控博彩业务的各州的挑战，其来自体育博彩的利润可能会受到压制。
A Supreme Court victory for Kalshi could cement its position as a leader in prediction markets and boost its push to become a one-stop trading platform for a wide array of asset classes competing with traditional exchange heavyweights, like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange. A defeat would leave the company vulnerable to states that want to maintain tight control over gaming and could crimp its profits from sports wagers.