在赌博问题上，德克萨斯州的法律是全美国最严格的之一。然而，这并未阻止一些在11月州选票上占据重要位置的共和党候选人，在本年秋季中期选举前，从预测市场巨头Kalshi及其首席执行官处接受数千美元的资金。
When it comes to gambling, Texas has some of the strictest laws in the country. But that has not stopped high-profile Republicans appearing on the state’s November ballot from accepting thousands of dollars from the prediction market giant Kalshi and its CEO ahead of this fall’s midterm elections.
德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿长期以来一直是该州严格法律的执行者，这些法律禁止体育博彩、赌博以及“对比赛或竞赛的部分或最终结果”进行投注。但根据联邦竞选财务记录，这位共和党参议员候选人自启动竞选活动以来，已从Kalshi及其创始人塔雷克·曼苏尔处接受了至少1.2万美元的竞选捐款。
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has long been an enforcer of the rigid Texas laws that outlaw sports betting, gambling and wagers placed “on the partial or final result of a game or contest.”But since launching his campaign for the U.S. Senate, the Republican nominee has taken at least $12,000 worth of campaign contributions from Kalshi and its founder, Tarek Mansour, according to federal campaign finance records.
根据最新的州竞选财务报告，德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特——他正面临一场激烈的连任竞选——于9月收到了曼苏尔5万美元的捐款。
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who is locked in a closely contested re-election bid, received a $50,000 donation from Mansour in September, according to the most recent state campaign finance reports.
来自Kalshi及其首席执行官的捐款，是公司更广泛游说行动的一部分，旨在巩固其在州一级的影响力，因为围绕预测市场未来的法律斗争即将提交至最高法院。曼苏尔与其联合创始人卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉成立了一个专注于德克萨斯州的通用政治行动委员会，并于9月向其注入了20万美元——这发生在州议员举行临时听证会，调查在线预测市场是否构成非法体育博彩的一周之后。
The donations from Kalshi and its chief executive are part of a broader lobbying push by the company to shore up state-level influence as the legal battle over the future of prediction markets heads for the Supreme Court. Mansour and his co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, created a Texas-focused general purpose political action committee and infused it with $200,000 in September — a week after state lawmakers held interim hearings to investigate whether online prediction markets constitute illegal sports betting.
当被问及在德克萨斯州的支出问题时，Kalshi发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜表示：“与许多受美国监管的公司一样，我们支持两党的候选人。”Kalshi在加利福尼亚州和纽约州也进行了大量游说，而这些州的领导层均为民主党人。今年，该公司在行业游说支出中处于领先地位，并向共和党和民主党的总检察长及州长协会分别捐赠了超过10万美元。
“Like many U.S. regulated companies, we support candidates on both sides of the aisle,” Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said when asked for comment on the Texas spending. Kalshi has also lobbied heavily in California and New York, where leadership is Democratic. The company has led industry spending on lobbying this year, and has donated more than $100,000 each to Republican and Democratic attorneys general and governors associations.
争端的核心在于谁拥有对这一新兴行业的监管权：正如Kalshi和其他主要预测市场所坚称的那样，是联邦商品监管机构，还是它们所在的各州。今年，大多数州的检察长提出，该在线平台的体育相关赛事合约是一种非法博彩形式，违反了当地的赌博法律并分流了宝贵的税收收入。
At issue is who has the power to police the nascent industry: federal commodities regulators, as Kalshi and other major prediction markets insist, or the states in which they operate. The majority of state attorneys general have made the case this year that the online platform’s sports-related event contracts are a form of illegal betting that violates local gambling laws and siphons valuable tax revenue.
目前，预测市场受商品期货交易委员会的联邦监管。各州历史上对赌博拥有管辖权，但唐纳德·特朗普总统及其政府拒绝接受这一先例。
Currently, prediction markets are federally regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission States have historically held jurisdiction over gambling, but President Donald Trump and his administration have rejected that precedent.
CFTC已采取强硬措施以确立联邦对预测市场的控制。在特朗普任命的主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）的领导下，该机构今年起诉了九个由民主党州长执政的州，以阻止它们打击预测市场的企图。在各州针对该交易所发起的诉讼中，CFTC站在Kalshi一边，并两次动用罕禁启用的紧急权力，指示Kalshi无视密歇根州和纽约州本会叫停其运营的法院命令。
The CFTC has taken aggressive measures to cement federal control over prediction markets. The agency under its Trump-appointed chair, Michael Selig, has sued nine states with Democratic governors this year to stop their attempts to crack down on the markets. The CFTC has sided with Kalshi in lawsuits brought by states against the exchange and has twice invoked rarely used emergency powers to instruct Kalshi to ignore court orders in Michigan and New York that would have halted its operations.
帕克斯顿在很大程度上由于得到特朗普的背书而赢得共和党提名，但在各州检察长为将预测市场监管权收归地方而进行的跨党派努力中，他却明显缺席。据Politico最先报道，帕克斯顿在6月份接受曼苏尔7000美元捐款几天后，拒绝签署由34位总检察长提交给费城第三巡回上诉法院的陈述摘要，他们在该摘要中要求获得监管Kalshi的权利。
Paxton, who won the Republican nomination due in large part to Trump’s endorsement has been notably absent from bipartisan efforts by state attorneys general to move regulation of the markets under their control. Politico first reported that Paxton, days after accepting a $7,000 donation from Mansour in June, declined to sign a brief submitted by 34 attorneys general to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia, in which they asked for the right to regulate Kalshi.
帕克斯顿的名字也未能出现在8月44位共和党和民主党州检察长致函美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的激烈措辞的信件中。这些检察长认为，一项旨在对金融市场实施联邦监管的拟议规则将“用大锤砸碎各州的历史性权力”，并让联邦政府“几乎拥有对州政策的否决权”。帕克斯顿选择置身这场围绕市场控制权的全国性争论之外，似乎与他过去执行反赌博法律的做法相悖。
Paxton’s name was also absent from a fiery letter 44 Republican and Democratic state attorneys general sent to the CFTC in August, arguing that a proposed rule to federally regulate the markets would take “a sledgehammer to the States’ historic power” and hand the federal government “a virtual veto over state policies.”Paxton’s choice to sit out the nationwide brawl over control of the markets appears at odds with his past enforcement of anti-gambling laws, which included a court battle with the fantasy sports platform DraftKings after he determined that paid daily fantasy sports were illegal under Texas law.
此前，他曾认定付费每日幻想体育在得克萨斯州属非法，并与幻想体育平台DraftKings展开了一场法庭诉讼。然而，他如今对该问题的缺席，却与特朗普政府的立场一致。
But his absence from the issue now does align with the position of the Trump administration.
“CFTC对预测市场的专属管辖权必须得到维持，这样这些市场才能蓬勃发展，这一点至关重要。”特朗普今年5月在Truth Social上发帖写道。
“It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social in May.
特朗普的家人与Kalshi及其最大竞争对手Polymarket存在直接的经济联系。特朗普的长子小唐纳德·特朗普担任这两家公司的顾问委员会成员，并持有大量Kalshi股份，还通过其风险投资公司1789 Capital投资了Polymarket。他否认自己与预测市场的关系曾影响过联邦政策或执法行动。
Trump’s family holds direct financial ties to Kalshi and Polymarket, its largest competitor. Trump’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., sits on the board of advisers of both companies, and he holds a large volume of shares in Kalshi and has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. He has denied that his ties to the prediction markets have influenced federal policies or enforcement actions.
在担任州长的11年间，阿博特对得克萨斯州合法化赌博的提议一直持更友好的态度。他在去年的一次采访中表示，他并不反对得克萨斯州立法机构将在线体育博彩合法化。然而，副州长丹·帕特里克则采取了更为严格的做法。今年3月，他指示得克萨斯州参议院研究关闭当前允许Kalshi在该州运营的“赌博漏洞”的方法。
Abbott has been friendlier to the idea of legalizing gambling in Texas throughout his 11 years as the state’s governor. He said in an interview last year that he has no objection to the Texas state Legislature legalizing online sports betting. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, however, has taken a tighter approach. He directed the Texas Senate in March to explore ways to close the “gambling loopholes” that currently allow Kalshi to operate in the state.
阿博特和帕克斯顿的竞选团队均未回应MS NOW多次提出的评论请求。得克萨斯州总检察长办公室也未回应MS NOW的评论请求，帕克斯顿的“孤星自由政治行动委员会”（Lone Star Liberty PAC）同样未作回应。
The campaigns for Abbott and Paxton did not respond to MS NOW’s multiple requests for comment. The Texas attorney general’s office did not respond to MS NOW’s request for comment, nor did Paxton’s Lone Star Liberty PAC.
特朗普支持的得州共和党人从 Kalshi MS NOW 获得支持
The post Trump-endorsed Texas Republicans get a boost from Kalshi MS NOW