距离中期选举还有不到一个月的时间，预测市场的政治契约成为焦点，观察人士希望看看他们是否能准确预测谁将赢得全国各地的各种竞选。但一位民主党代表希望限制候选人进行这些合同的交易。
With less than a month until the midterm elections, prediction markets' political contracts are in focus as observers look to see if they'll accurately forecast who will win various races across the country. But one Democratic representative wants to restrict candidates from trading on those contracts.
众议员唐·戴维斯，北卡罗来纳州民主党人，周一提出了一项法案，禁止联邦公职人员候选人进行与自己选举相关的预测市场合约交易，他的办公室与CNBC独家共享。
Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., introduced a bill on Monday to ban candidates for federal office from trading on prediction market contracts related to their own elections, his office shared exclusively with CNBC.
“禁止对自己的种族进行投注法案”在众议院的一次形式会议上提出，旨在将平台本身已经自行执行的内容正式纳入法律。出于对内幕交易的担忧，预测市场积极寻求限制个人候选人使用自己的合同进行交易。
Introduced during a pro forma session of the House of Representatives, the "No Betting on Your Own Race Act" seeks to formally put into law what platforms themselves have already been enforcing on their own. Prediction markets have actively sought to curb individual candidates from trading on their own contracts due to concerns about insider trading.
戴维斯的提议将对被发现在与自己的候选资格相关的活动合同上进行交易的个人处以10，000美元或相当于违规净财务收益三倍的罚款（以较大者为准）。
Davis' proposal would apply a fine of $10,000 or an amount equal to three times the net financial gain from the violation — whichever figure is larger — to individuals who are caught placing trades on event contracts related to their own candidacy.
“我们不希望我们的运动员在他们的比赛上下注。竞选联邦民选公职的候选人应该受到完全相同的待遇，不应该被允许利用自己的选举进行交易，”戴维斯在一份声明中说。“为了建立一致性并确保所有联邦候选人竞选委员会都明白这一点，国会必须通过这项常识性立法。“戴维斯决定提出该法案之前，他在北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区的共和党对手劳里·巴克霍特（Laurie Buchout）引发了争议，该选区被视为一场激烈的战场竞选。
"We don't want our athletes to bet on their games. A candidate running for federal elected office should be treated exactly the same and should not be allowed to trade on their own election," Davis said in a statement. "To establish consistency and ensure all federal candidate campaign committees understand this, Congress must pass this common-sense legislation." The decision by Davis to introduce the bill follows a controversy involving Laurie Buckhout, his Republican opponent in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, which is seen as a tight battleground race.
巴克豪特于8月与预测市场平台Kalshi达成和解，此前该公司发现她交易了与她的选举相关的合同。她因交易支付了近2，600美元的罚款，并被卡尔希停职三年。
Buckhout settled with prediction market platform Kalshi in August after the company found that she traded on contracts related to her election. She paid a penalty of just under $2,600 for her trades and was suspended from Kalshi for three years.
“我把赌注押在自己身上。从字面上看，”巴克豪特当时在一份声明中说道。“这是一个愚蠢的错误，当我得知有问题时，我就努力纠正它。"
"I bet on myself. Literally," Buckhout said in a statement at the time. "It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right."
戴维斯当时在X上的一篇帖子中表示，他的对手进行交易的决定是“对公众信任的丧失资格的破坏。“众议院和参议院要到中期选举之后才会举行会议，这意味着该提案在当前的选举周期中几乎没有机会得到实施。
Davis in a post on X at the time said that his opponent's decision to place the trades was "a disqualifying breach of public trust." The House and Senate are not set to meet until after the midterm elections, meaning the proposal has little to no chance of getting implemented for the current electoral cycle.
今年4月，参议院批准了一项禁止参议员和工作人员在预测市场上交易的决议，此举受到了领先平台Kalshi和Polymarket的赞扬。不过，该决议并未适用于非现任美国参议院候选人。众议院尚未通过类似的禁令，尽管已经提出了这样做的决议。
In April, the Senate approved a resolution to ban senators and staff from trading on prediction markets, a move which leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket praised. That resolution, though, did not extend to candidates running for the U.S. Senate who are not an incumbent. The House of Representatives has yet to pass a similar ban, though resolutions to do just that have been proposed.