（NEXSTAR）随着在线博彩平台的日益普及，如今人们几乎可以对任何事情下注——从超级碗比赛结果到谁会被任命为白宫新闻秘书（针对后者的可疑投注行为目前正在接受调查）。
(NEXSTAR) – With the expansion of online betting platforms, you can wager on nearly anything, from the Super Bowl to who will be selected as the White House press secretary (suspicious bets tied to the latter are being investigated).
政治领域似乎已成为最受欢迎的投注领域。例如，今年早些时候，Kalshi平台在前众议员乔治·桑托斯对该平台的“国情咨文演讲结果”下注后，便将其列入禁投名单。
Politics has seemingly become one of the most popular spaces in which wagers are being cast. Earlier this year, for example, Kalshi banned former Rep. George Santos after he placed wagers on the State of the Union.
近几个月来，预测市场一直是立法者关注的焦点。3月份，美国参议院提出了一项跨党派法案，旨在限制Kalshi、Polymarket等平台所提供的投注项目范围。
Prediction markets, in particular, have been a focus of lawmakers for several months. In March, bipartisan legislation was introduced in the Senate to restrict what entities like Kalshi and Polymarket can offer wagers on.
多个州也在针对预测市场采取措施，甚至警告选民切勿对选举结果下注。
Several states are also targeting prediction markets and even warning voters against betting on their ballots.
7月份，威斯康星州的选举官员提醒选民：对选举结果下注不仅可能导致投票资格被取消，还可能构成刑事犯罪。
In July, election officials in Wisconsin warned voters that betting on an election could not only cost them their vote but culminate in a felony charge.
“我们希望选民明白，从法律层面来讲，他们既不能在选举期间下注，又不能在同一次选举中投票，”威斯康星州选举委员会执行主任梅根·沃尔夫说道，“虽然我们无法监控选民是否在相关平台上下注，但让他们了解这么做可能带来的后果至关重要。”据美国各州立法会议会统计，威斯康星州属于那些至少在特定情况下禁止选举投注的州之一，其他类似州还包括俄勒冈州、北达科他州、南达科他州、明尼苏达州、印第安纳州、纽约州以及马萨诸塞州。
“We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” Wisconsin Election Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe said. “We are not able to police someone placing a bet on these platforms, but it’s important for voters to understand the consequences if they bet on an election outcome.”Wisconsin is one of several states that prohibit election betting, at least in some circumstances, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Others like it include Oregon, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Indiana, New York, and Massachusetts.
据该会议会统计，另有24个州——爱达荷州、内华达州、犹他州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、内布拉斯加州、俄克拉荷马州、得克萨斯州、艾奥瓦州、阿肯色州、路易斯安那州、伊利诺伊州、密歇根州、田纳西州、密西西比州、乔治亚州、南卡罗来纳州、北卡罗来纳州、西弗吉尼亚州、马里兰州、特拉华州、新泽西州、宾夕法尼亚州以及罗德岛州——均全面禁止选举投注。
Twenty-four other states – Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island – have blanket prohibitions on election betting, NCSL reports.
德克萨斯州一直在研究预测市场可能对选举产生何种影响。据Nexstar旗下KXAN电视台报道，今年8月，在德克萨斯州众议院选举委员会关于新兴选举技术的听证会上，这一议题曾被提及。
Texas has been weighing how prediction markets could impact elections. In August, the issue was discussed during a Texas House Elections Committee hearing on emerging election technologies, according to Nexstar’s KXAN.
该州目前禁止对选举结果、政治提名及任命进行赌博活动。不过，预测市场运营方辩称其提供的只是交易服务而非传统意义上的赌博，因此不应受相关禁令约束。
The state prohibits gambling on election outcomes, as well as political nominations and appointments. However, prediction markets argue they offer swaps or exchanges, not traditional betting, exempting them from the rule.
Decision Desk HQ的首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利称，2026年中期选举期间的预测市场赌博行为“目前仍处于无序状态”。“我们正身处一个全新的领域，各州政府、联邦政府及其他相关方将如何应对，值得拭目以待，”他向《国会山报》说道。
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, called prediction market betting in the 2026 midterm elections “the Wild West right now.”“We’re in real new territory, and it’ll be interesting to see how state and federal governments and others respond to it,” he told The Hill.
据美国国家州议会会议所统计，目前尚未禁止对选举结果进行赌博的州包括阿拉斯加州、夏威夷州、加利福尼亚州、华盛顿州、蒙大拿州、怀俄明州、新墨西哥州、堪萨斯州、密苏里州、俄亥俄州、肯塔基州、弗吉尼亚州、阿拉巴马州、佛罗里达州、康涅狄格州、缅因州、佛蒙特州以及新罕布什尔州。
States without prohibitions on betting on elections, according to the NCSL, are Alaska, Hawaii, California, Washington, Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Alabama, Florida, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
本周发布的路透社/益普索民调显示，60%的受访者表示不支持对选举结果进行赌博。
Sixty percent of respondents to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week said they did not support betting on election results.