最新民调显示，大多数美国人反对对选举结果进行投注。路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）周一发布的一项民调显示，随着中期选举临近，60%的受访者表示不支持通过Kalshi或Polymarket等预测市场对选举结果进行投注；另有13%表示支持，24%表示不确定，3%跳过了该问题。
Most in new poll oppose bets on elections Most Americans regardless of party oppose betting on election results through prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket, according to a new survey. A Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Monday, found that 60 percent of respondents did not support betting on election results, as the midterm elections near.
预测市场允许人们对各种事件的结果进行投注，从选举到体育再到经济。
Another 13 percent said they support betting, while 24 percent were unsure and 3 percent skipped the question.
在共和党受访者中，61%反对对选举结果进行投注，16%表示支持，23%表示不确定，1%跳过了该问题。调查显示，民主党受访者中有略低于70%的人反对对选举结果进行投注，12%表示赞成，18%表示不确定，1%跳过了该问题。
Prediction markets allow people to place wagers on the outcome of various events, from elections to sports to the economy. Among Republican respondents, 61 percent opposed election-result betting, 16 percent were supportive, 23 percent were unsure and 1 percent skipped the question.
在考虑其他市场的投注时，结果有所不同。大约43%的受访者反对对职业体育进行投注，29%表示赞成，25%表示不确定，4%未作答。
Just less than 70 percent of Democratic respondents were against betting on elections, while 12 percent approved, 18 percent were unsure and 1 percent skipped the question, the survey found. The results differ when considering betting in other markets.
按党派划分，约44%的共和党受访者和50%的民主党受访者反对对体育进行投注。另有33%的共和党受访者和29%的民主党受访者表示支持这种投注方式。
Roughly 43 percent of respondents opposed betting on professional sports, 29 percent approve it, 25 percent were unsure and 4 percent did not answer. Broken down by party, about 44 percent of Republican respondents and 50 percent of Democrats opposed betting on sports.
预测市场在2024年总统选举期间人气飙升。根据该平台的数据，Polymarket的“2024年总统选举胜者”项目共计投入37亿美元。数据显示，仅在Polymarket平台上，就有约13亿美元被押注在特朗普总统赢得选举上，而约10.3亿美元被用于押注前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯将赢得选举。
Another 33 percent of GOP and 29 percent of Democratic respondents supported this kind of wagering. Prediction markets jumped in popularity around the 2024 presidential elections, in which $3.7 billion was spent on Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” according to the platform. Around $1.3 billion was wagered on President Trump winning the election on Polymarket alone, while $1.03 billion was spent on betting former Vice President Kamala Harris would win the election, the data shows.
Polymarket的一位发言人对《国会山报》表示：“大多数美国人对我们的信息生态系统深感失望，因为其中的真相往往难以辨认，而且很难避免被骗。”
A Polymarket spokesperson told The Hill, “Most Americans are deeply disenchanted with our information ecosystem, because it’s often impossible to find the truth and avoid being scammed.”
“预测市场是获取影响我们生活的事件的无偏见、准确信息的一种方式，”发言人继续说道。“公众对预测市场公共价值的认可正在增长，但对大多数人来说，它们仍然是全新的事物，公众需要一些时间来进一步了解并看到其真正的价值。”这种势头也与2024年一项联邦法院裁决有关，该裁决阻止了商品期货交易委员会——一个监控衍生品市场的小型金融监管机构——阻止对选举的下注。
“Prediction markets are a way to get unbiased, accurate information about the events that impact our lives,” the spokesperson continued. “Recognition of the public value of prediction markets is growing, but they’re still brand new to most, and it’s going to take some time for the public to learn more and see the real value.”The momentum is also tied to a 2024 federal court ruling that stopped the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a small financial regulator that monitors derivatives markets, from blocking bets on elections.
Decision Desk HQ的首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利称，2026年中期选举中的预测市场投注“现在就像是西部荒野。”他补充道：“我们正处于全新的领域，看到州政府、联邦政府以及其他方面将如何应对这一情况将很有趣。”
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, called prediction market betting in the 2026 midterm elections “the wild west right now.”“We’re in real new territory, and it’ll be interesting to see how state and federal governments and others respond to it,” he added.
这凸显了立法者对腐败可能性的担忧。《华尔街日报》报道称，Kalshi据称正在调查其平台上在新闻媒体开始宣布特朗普选择下一任新闻秘书之前不久进行的至少三笔交易。Kalshi未能立即回应《国会山报》的置评请求。
This underscores the worry among lawmakers about the possibility of corruption. Kalshi is reportedly investigating at least three trades placed on its platform shortly before news outlets began announcing Trump’s selection of his next press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported. Kalshi did not respond immediately to The Hill’s request for comment.
路透/益普索民意调查于9月30日至10月5日在4506名受访者中进行。误差范围为2.3个百分点。
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 among 4,506 respondents. The margin of error is 2.3 percentage points.