预测市场的支持者常常将这些平台宣传为公众意见的晴雨表，甚至是“事实机器”，能够比民调或其他数据提供更清晰的事态发展图景。例如，2024 年，Kalshi 在预测美国总统选举结果方面击败了许多民调机构。但他们的交易活动也可能讲述更令人困惑的故事。
Prediction market boosters often tout the platforms as barometers of public opinion, or even “truth machines” offering a clearer picture of where things are headed than polling or other data. In 2024, for example, Kalshi beat many pollsters in forecasting the outcome of the US presidential race. But their trading activity can also tell more perplexing stories.
举例来说，Polymarket 离岸平台上的两个全球选举市场产生了超过 6 亿美元的交易量，远高于大多数政治市场通常吸引的规模。大部分交易发生在与最终未获胜的长期冷门候选人相关的合约的买卖上。
Two global election markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform, for instance, generated over $600 million in trading volume, far more than most political markets typically attract. Most of the activity took place buying and selling contracts tied to long-shot candidates who ultimately did not win.
今年夏天，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德领导的繁荣党在联邦选举中轻松获胜，赢得了 438 个议会席位，为他连任另一个五年期铺平了道路。最近的竞争对手仅赢得了 13 个席位。在预测市场上，交易量——即买卖合约的总价值——通常与给定结果的概率大致相符；领跑者往往吸引远高于长期冷门候选人的交易量。但在这种情况下，交易模式与常规背道而驰。
This summer, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party cruised to victory in federal elections, winning 438 parliamentary seats and paving the way for him to serve another five-year term. The closest competitor won 13 seats. On prediction markets, trading volume—the total value of contracts bought and sold—typically tracks roughly with the odds of a given outcome; frontrunners attract far more volume than long shots. But in this case, the trading patterns deviated sharply from the norm.
仅有 17.3 万美元押注在艾比·艾哈迈德获胜上，而其幕僚长希梅利斯·阿卜迪萨成为该国下一任领导人的交易额则超过 4100 万美元。总计，交易量累计超过 2.85 亿美元，几乎全部押注在落选候选人身上。
Just $173,000 was wagered on Ahmed winning, compared to more than $41 million traded on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, becoming the country’s next leader. Altogether, the volume traded added up to over $285 million, nearly all on losing candidates.