预测市场卡尔什周二宣布了一系列措施，旨在在2026年中期选举之前提高选举市场透明度。该公司在接受记者电话采访时表示，将在其所有美国中期选举市场上推出三项新功能。第一个是预测准确性的衡量标准，使用历史数据的汇总将预测与可能的结果进行比较。第二个将显示市场交易者相对较少的情况，因此可能不太准确。
Prediction market Kalshi announced on Tuesday a list of measures designed to boost transparency of its election markets ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In a call with reporters, the company said it will include three new features on all of its U.S. midterm election markets. The first is a measure of forecast accuracy that compares the prediction with the probable outcomes using an aggregation of historical data. The second will show when markets have relatively few traders and therefore could be less accurate.
第三个将实时显示个人交易。该公司表示，目标是确保用户对各个市场的可靠性有更多了解，并能够更好地解释这些数字。“这对我们来说是一个特殊的时刻。四周后，美国人将在中期选举中投票。这确实是预测市场成为主流后的第一次选举，”Kalshi首席执行官塔里克·曼苏尔说。这些举措是在该平台上选举交易活动有所增加的同时进行的。
And the third will show individual trades in real time. The goal, said the company, is to ensure that users have more context on the reliability of various markets and are better able to interpret the numbers. “This is a special time for us. Four weeks from now Americans will be voting in the midterm elections. And this is really the first election after prediction markets have gone mainstream,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said. The moves come alongside a pickup in election trading activity on the platform.
卡尔什表示，过去两年选举市场交易量有所上升，许多用户对州和国会选区选举进行投票。8月，威斯康星州民主党州长初选的失败引发了人们对预测市场作为指标的可靠性的质疑。在选举前夕，卡尔什的市场让最终失败者获胜的可能性约为95%。Kalshi联合创始人Luana Lopes Lara在社交媒体上写道：“5%不是0%。”她指出，仅仅因为领跑者输掉比赛的预测几率很低，并不意味着市场不准确。
According to Kalshi, election market trading volumes have risen over the past two years, with many users voting on their state and congressional district elections. In August, an upset in Wisconsin’s democratic primary for governor raised questions about the prediction market’s reliability as an indicator. In the run-up to the election, Kalshi’s market gave the eventual loser a roughly 95% probability of winning. “5% is not 0%,” wrote Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara on social media, noting that just because the predicted odds that the frontrunner could lose the race were low did not mean the market was inaccurate.
曼苏尔在电话会议上表示：“我们很高兴能够在这感觉像是第一次有意义的预测市场选举中展示这些市场的力量。”
“We are excited to showcase the powers of these markets in what feels like the first meaningful prediction market election,” Mansour said on the call.
“将这些市场置于背景下非常重要。”当天早些时候，Kalshi还宣布，现在将托管永久期货，这是一种允许交易员进行不会到期的赌注的金融产品，该指数是针对该国500家最大上市公司的专门创建的指数，模仿标准普尔500指数。
“It’s important to put these markets in context.”Earlier in the day, Kalshi also announced it will now host perpetual futures, a type of financial product that allows traders to make wagers that don't expire, on a specially-created index of the country's 500 largest publicly-listed companies that mimics the S&P 500.