本月早些时候，纽约一块 Kalshi 广告牌显示美国参议院中期选举赔率。| BLOOMBERG AFP-Jiji 10月27日 2026年 华盛顿 —— 美国中期选举正在一块备受争议的新记分牌上演，这是预测市场走向主流以来，美国举行的首次重大选举。
A Kalshi billboard displaying U.S. Senate midterm election odds in New York earlier this month. | BLOOMBERG AFP-Jiji Oct 27, 2026 Washington – The U.S. midterms are playing out against a controversial new scoreboard, as the nation votes in its first major elections since prediction markets went mainstream.
随着数亿美元押注在手，专家警告称，实时赔率大量涌入新闻报道和社交媒体，可能造成混淆，并为误导信息提供素材。
With hundreds of millions of dollars on the line, experts are warning that the proliferation of live odds into news coverage and on social media could sow confusion — and provide fodder for misinformation.
担忧范围从有动机的行为者采取极端手段操纵市场，到选民过度信任赔率，并在选举结果与赔率不符时毫无根据地指责舞弊。
Concerns range from motivated actors taking extreme measures to sway markets, to voters overtrusting the odds and baselessly blaming fraud where election results differ.