作者：尼古拉·M·怀特随着预测市场行业日益繁荣，围绕其监管权的法律争议不断升级，美国商品期货交易委员会提议对“金融互换”的定义进行修订，明确将基于体育、政治、文化及天气等事件的合约纳入其中。
By Nicola M White The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed defining financial swaps to explicitly include event contracts based on sports, politics, culture and weather-related wagers as the legal fight escalates over the booming prediction markets industry.
在主席迈克尔·塞利格的带领下，该委员会极力主张自身才是该行业的唯一监管机构。目前，用户可通过Kalshi、Polymarket等平台交易此类事件合约。然而，各州及原住民部落则认为预测市场实质上属于非法赌博行为，违反了各州的税收及博彩法规。
The agency, led Chairman Michael Selig, has aggressively defended itself as the sole regulator of the industry, which allows users to trade so-called event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. States and tribes, however, have argued prediction markets are illegal gambling operations that shirk state tax and gaming laws.
由于美国各联邦上诉法院对此问题存在分歧，这场争议极有可能最终交由最高法院裁决。
The dispute is now likely headed to the Supreme Court after a split among regional federal appellate courts.
塞利格在周五发布的声明中称：“美国人利用事件合约来规避风险、进行投机，同时也能借此获取有关未来事件走向的信息。”
“Americans use event contracts to hedge risks, speculate, and provide the public with information about the outcome of future events,” Selig said in a statement on Friday.
此外，该委员会还宣布，赌场式赌博产品以及体育博彩均不属于“金融互换”的定义范畴。商品期货交易委员会通过一项临时最终规则对定义作出修正，并称此举是“在围绕其对事件合约监管权争议持续发酵的背景下”做出的决定。
In a separate measure, the agency said casino-style gambling products and wagers on sportsbooks explicitly are excluded from the definition of a swap. The CFTC issued the amendment to the definition via an interim final rule, saying it did so “in the context of the ongoing debate” over the agency’s jurisdiction over event contracts.
该规则一经在《联邦公报》上发布即生效，但委员会仍会在30天内征求公众意见。目前受美国监管的预测市场允许用户对从体育赛事到地缘政治事件等几乎所有事项下注，不过通常并不提供纯靠运气的赌场类游戏。
That measure will go into effect as soon as it is published in the Federal but the regulator also will accept public feedback on it for 30 days. US-regulated prediction markets allow users to place wagers on just about anything, from sports to geopolitical events, but do not typically offer casino-style games of pure chance.
总部位于华盛顿的智库“Better Markets”一直对商品期货交易委员会支持预测市场的做法持批评态度。该机构称，商品期货交易委员会周五的举措表明其正逐渐沦为预测市场的“鼓吹者”。
Better Markets, a Washington think tank that has criticized the CFTC’s embrace of prediction markets, called Friday’s moves an example of the agency becoming a “cheerleader” for prediction markets.
“仅仅将其称为‘事件合约’并不能使其摇身一变成为金融衍生品，”该组织的证券政策主管本杰明·希夫林在一份声明中说道。“与Kalshi及美国商品期货交易委员会的说法相反，根本没有人‘交易’体育赛事。人们只是在对体育赛事下注，而体育赛事事件合约正是让人们能够这么做的工具。”Kalshi的发言人暂未对置评请求作出回应。
“Calling it an event contract does not magically transform it into a financial derivative,” Benjamin Schiffrin, the group’s director of securities policy, said in a statement. “Contrary to what Kalshi and the CFTC say, nobody ‘trades’ on sports. They bet on sports, and that is what event contracts on sporting events enable people to do.”A spokesperson for Kalshi didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.