如今，唐纳德·特朗普总统不受欢迎这一点已是众所周知。事实上，根据我和同事们在 FiftyPlusOne.news 上统计的民意调查平均值，他目前的净支持率——即支持其总统任期的美国人比例减去反对者的比例——是所有总统在中期选举前所创下的最低纪录。但问题并不仅仅出在特朗普身上。共和党在候选人好感度方面存在更广泛的问题，这威胁到该党在11月中期选举前维持美国众议院多数席位的能力。
By now, it is common knowledge that President Donald Trump is an unpopular man. In fact, his net approval rating — the percentage of Americans who approve of his presidency minus the percentage who disapprove — is the lowest ever for a president heading into a midterm, according to the average of polls my colleagues and I calculate at FiftyPlusOne.news But it’s not just Trump. The Republican Party has a broader candidate favorability problem that threatens its majority in the U.S. House ahead of November’s midterms. Take Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton as the chief example.
以得克萨斯州参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿为例。帕克斯顿的政治履历臭名昭著，包括在担任“孤星之州”州检察长期间被指控婚姻不忠和腐败。2023年5月，得克萨斯州众议院以受贿、滥用职权和妨碍司法等罪名对其提出弹劾，但同年9月，得克萨斯州参议院最终宣告其无罪。
Paxton has an infamous political biography, including allegations of marital infidelity and corruption during his time as the Lone Star State’s attorney general. The Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton in May 2023 on charges of bribery, abuse of office and obstruction but he was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate in September 2023. None of the Republican Party’s nominees for U.S. Senate in competitive races have positive favorability ratings on average.
在所有具有竞争力的选区中，共和党的美国参议员候选人平均好感度均无一项为正。
If you want to run for higher office, black marks such as these can add up.
如果想竞选更高职位，这类污点会不断累积。事实上，根据 FiftyPlusOne 专为本专栏整理的一份最新民意调查数据库，帕克斯顿是所有共和党美国参议员候选人中好感度最低的一位。在12项不同民意调查的平均结果中，37.5%的得克萨斯州民众对帕克斯顿持负面看法，而持正面看法的则为51.7%。由此得出的净好感度为-14%。
In fact, according to a new database of polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne exclusively for this column, Paxton has the worst favorability rating of any Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. In an average of 12 different polls, 37.5% of Texans said they viewed Paxton unfavorably, compared to 51.7% who viewed him favorably. That makes for a net rating of -14%. Among the GOP’s other comparable negative favorability ratings are North Carolina GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley the current chair of the Republican National Committee, who is trailing in the polls by 10 percentage points to Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor of the state; and Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican senator from Kansas who has been dogged by controversies a much closer-than-expected race in that state against first-time candidate — and former Republican turned Democrat — Adam Hamilton.
共和党其他候选人中，负面支持率同样较高的还有北卡罗来纳州的共和党参议员候选人迈克尔·沃特利——他现任共和党全国委员会主席，但在民意调查中落后于该州前民主党州长罗伊·库珀10个百分点；此外，堪萨斯州的现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔也深陷争议，在该州与首次参选、且曾为共和党人后转为民主党人的亚当·汉密尔顿的竞争中，局势比预期更为胶着。
In fact, none of the Republican Party’s nominees for U.S. Senate in competitive races have positive favorability ratings on average.
事实上，在具有竞争力的选区中，共和党的所有参议员候选人平均支持率均未达到正值。帕克斯顿的支持率最差，为-14，而爱荷华州的共和党候选人艾什莉·欣森的平均支持率为-2。
Paxton has the worst ratings, at -14, while the GOP nominee in Iowa, Ashley Hinson, has an average rating of -2. But Paxton also has the lowest rating of any of the GOP candidates across the country.
但帕克斯顿的支持率也是全美所有共和党候选人中最低的。德克萨斯州的民主党挑战者、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科目前拥有+6.5个百分点的支持率优势：46.6%的德克萨斯州民众对他持正面看法，而40.0%的人持负面看法。这一约21个百分点的差距，是全美所有候选人组合中最大的。
The Texas Democratic challenger, state Rep. James Talarico, currently boasts a +6.5-point favorability advantage, with 46.6% of Texans giving him a positive rating and 40.0% viewing him negatively. That roughly ~21-point gap is the largest between any pair of candidates across the country. It is true that Trump’s (un)popularity is like an albatross around his party’s neck.
诚然，特朗普的（不）受欢迎程度如同一个沉重的负担，压在其政党的肩上。但仅凭这一点，可能还不足以让德克萨斯州这样的“红州”转变为“蓝州”。2024年，总统以14个百分点的优势赢得了该州，但FiftyPlusOne的预测模型目前将这场选战判定为“倾向民主党”。从这一点来看，帕克斯顿并非个例。在特朗普于2024年以两位数优势获胜的州中，共和党候选人的支持率平均落后对手13个百分点。
But that alone would likely not have been enough to flip a state like Texas from red to blue. The president won that state by 14 percentage points in 2024, but our forecasting model at FiftyPlusOne now puts up the race as “leaning Democratic.”And in this respect, Paxton is not an outlier. In states that Trump won by double digits in 2024, Republican nominees trail their rivals on favorability by 13 points on average. In Texas, Kansas, Ohio Iowa Alaska the Democratic nominee averages a favorability rating of +6, and the Republican −7.
在德克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州和阿拉斯加州，民主党候选人的平均支持率为+6，而共和党候选人则为-7。在另外四个竞争更为激烈的州中，这一差距缩小至约6个百分点。
In the four closer states, that gap shrinks to about 6 points. Paxton launches probe accusing doctors of conspiring to push parents into vaccinating kids October 6, 2026 Some of this edge for the Democrats is the result of solid recruiting of quality candidates.
帕克斯顿发起调查，指控医生合谋强迫家长为孩子接种疫苗 2026年10月6日 民主党取得的部分优势，源于他们成功招募了优质候选人。但在大多数这些竞争激烈的选区，共和党候选人主动处于劣势，而民主党候选人也并非凭借高人气轻松取胜。密歇根州、缅因州和新罕布什尔州的民主党候选人同样处于劣势，其净支持率分别为-1.8、-4.6和-11.3。不过，在这三个州，共和党的候选人从净支持率来看，比民主党候选人更不受欢迎。
But Republicans are underwater of their own volition in most of these competitive races, as Democrats aren’t exactly sailing on popularity, either. The Democratic nominees in Michigan Maine New Hampshire are all underwater, too, with a net favorability rating, respectively, of -1.8, -4.6 and -11.3. But in those three states, the Republican nominee is less popular, on a net basis, than the Democrats. Paxton seems to know he’s in trouble.
帕克斯顿似乎意识到自己处境艰难。据《政治报》报道，他上个月在一次私人筹款活动中对捐赠者表示：“我无力改变任何事。”他还称，自己的竞选活动实际上是由全国党部和华盛顿的总统在主导。
“I don’t have the ability to change anything,” he told donors at a private fundraiser last month, according to Politico. He said his campaign was effectively being run by the national party and the president in Washington. An unpopular president is always a drag on its party’s nominees up and down the ballot.
一位不受欢迎的总统，总是会对党内所有层级的候选人造成拖累。但今年，共和党还在那些输不起的州中，提名了选民同样不喜欢的人选。这或许会导致共和党在11月失去对国会的控制权。
But this year, the Republican Party has also nominated candidates that voters don’t like in states it can’t afford to lose. That may cost the GOP control of Congress in November. The post Ken Paxton is deeply unpopular — but the GOP has a bigger problem MS NOW