在民意调查中处于落后地位的唐纳德·特朗普认为，他已经找到了扭转舆论、减少11月3日众议院选举和参议院三分之一席位选举中损失的有效方案。自9月10日起，他一直承诺，如果共和党成功保住两院控制权，将向“美国所有成年公民”发放5000美元（约合4400欧元）的支票。不出所料，他将其称为“特朗普红利”。向选民提出的这种腐败交易本身并不违法。
Trailing in the polls, Donald Trump believes he has found a winning formula to turn public opinion around and limit electoral losses in the November 3 elections for the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. Since September 10, he has been promising to give "all adult citizens in the United States of America" a $5,000 check (about €4,400) if the Republicans manage to keep control of both chambers. He is calling it, unsurprisingly, the "Trump Dividend." The corrupt pact being offered to voters is not illegal.
毕竟，由纳税人资助的此类竞选承诺与选举本身一样历史悠久：美国记者HL·门肯（1880-1956）曾讽刺地指出：“每一次选举都像是在提前拍卖偷来的货物。”但特朗普的宣布在道德和预算层面都让许多人感到震惊。如果这笔款项真的发放，“特朗普红利”将使本已庞大的美国公共债务再增加1.25万亿美元。
After all, such campaign promises funded by taxpayers are as old as elections themselves: "Every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods," as American journalist HL Mencken (1880-1956) wryly put it. But Trump's announcement shocked many, both ethically and in terms of budget. If paid out, the Trump Dividend would increase the already massive US public debt by $1.25 trillion.
需要明确的是，这5000美元支票真正落入2.5亿成年公民口袋的可能性微乎其微。共和党或许希望保住参议院，但他们在众议院仅以微弱多数（435个席位中的218席）领先，而众议院很可能最终会倒向民主党。尽管如此，“特朗普红利”仍可能对选举结果产生重大影响。选民投票并非仅仅基于价值观或理念，他们也不会忽视自身的物质利益。
To be clear, the chances of these $5,000 checks actually landing in the pockets of 250 million adult citizens are slim. Republicans may hope to retain the Senate, but they hold a narrow majority (218 seats out of 435) in the House of Representatives, which is very likely to swing to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the Trump Dividend could have a significant electoral impact. Voters do not cast their ballots solely for values or ideas: They do not forget their material interests.
清晰且可信 多位经济学家已经记录了此类承诺所带来的影响。2017年，当时任职于奥斯陆大学的意大利研究员马泰奥·阿尔皮诺（Matteo Alpino）发表了一项严谨的研究，对象是西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi，1936-2023）在2006年意大利大选竞选活动最后阶段所作出的承诺。当时，贝卢斯科尼担任部长会议主席，并与温和左翼领袖罗马诺·普罗迪（Romano Prodi）展开角逐。
Clear and credible Several economists have documented the impact of such promises. In 2017, Italian researcher Matteo Alpino, then at the University of Oslo, published a rigorous study on a pledge made by Silvio Berlusconi (1936-2023) at the very end of his 2006 campaign in Italy. At the time, Berlusconi was president of the Council of Ministers and facing the moderate left leader, Romano Prodi.
在两人最后一次电视辩论中，贝卢斯科尼突然宣布：他以“对家庭住宅神圣尊重”之名，承诺废除对主要住宅征收的房产税——这一承诺的价值高达30亿欧元。
During their final televised debate, Berlusconi made a surprise announcement: He vowed to scrap the property tax on primary residences, in the name of "sacrosanct respect for the family home" – a promise worth €3 billion.