随着中期选举日益临近，特朗普总统所承诺的、若共和党获胜便将兑现的“好处”清单越来越具体琐碎。特朗普和共和党希望，他向选民作出的重大承诺能促使他们在不到两周后的选举日前往投票站。从共和党获胜便向所有美国人支付5000美元红利，到以投资和和解方案作为诱饵，这些特朗普式承诺已成为其竞选活动的固定内容。
President Trump’s growing list of promised “goodies” if Republicans win has become more niche the closer the country gets to the midterm elections. Trump and the GOP are hoping his big promises to voters will get them out to the polls on Election Day in less than two weeks. From payment of a $5,000 dividend to all Americans if Republicans win to dangling investments and settlements, these Trump promises have become a staple at his campaign stops.
这些做法引发了质疑者的怀疑，他们质疑特朗普的重大承诺是否奏效、是否合法，甚至是否会兑现。“特朗普现在面临的问题是，在结束战争这件事上没人相信他。在降低物价上也是。在发钱上也是。全都没人信，”一位前白宫官员说。“我不确定这是否在伤害共和党候选人，但它肯定没有帮上忙。”特朗普对一些承诺加倍下注。
The efforts have drawn skeptics who question if Trump's big promises will work, are legal or will even happen. “The problem that Trump faces right now is that no one believes him on ending the war. On lowering prices. On giving away money. None of it,” said a former White House official. “I’m not sure if it is hurting Republican candidates, but it certainly isn’t helping.”Trump has doubled down on some promises.
上个月，他在Truth Social的一篇帖子中写道：“我说到做到！”指的是红利支票。“我认为，宣传你为一个选区或一个州做了什么、或者一个选区或一个州即将迎来什么，与让它看起来像是一种交换条件甚至更糟，这两者之间只有一线之隔，”一位共和党策略师说。“我们只能看看这是否足以改变他们的投票意向，还是他们会把注意力转回去，重新回到那些无论如何都在影响他们的经济问题和普遍腐败问题上，”这位策略师说，并补充道，“就我个人而言，我不喜欢这样。”
He wrote in a Truth Social post last month, “When I say something, I mean it!” in regard to the dividend checks. “I think there’s a fine line with going in and promoting what you’ve done for a district or for a state or what’s on the horizon for a district or for a state versus having it appear as a quid pro quo or worse,” said one Republican strategist. “We’ll just see if that’s enough to swing them or if they’re just going to focus back and bounce back to the economy and general corruption issues that are influencing them anyway,” the strategist said, adding, “personally for me, I don’t like it.”
西北大学普利兹克法学院法学教授迈克尔·康表示，这既不是贿赂，也不是买票计划。“这不存在买票的问题，”他说。“这就好比说，如果你投票给我们，我们就会通过减税，每个人都会拿回钱。”白宫驳斥了对这些承诺的任何批评。
Michael Kang, a law professor at the Northwestern Pritzker School of Law, said it’s not bribery or a vote buying scheme. “There’s no vote buying problem with that,” he said. “That’s just like saying, if you vote for us, we’re going to pass tax cuts and everyone’s going to get money back.”The White House dismissed any criticism of the promises.
“那些悲观论者和反对者一直对特朗普总统持怀疑态度，”白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示。“当他承诺创建‘Trump Accounts’（特朗普专属的政府账户）；通过‘最惠国’政策降低处方药价格；加强边境安全、防止非法人员入境；整治城市街道环境；取消小费税；提高实际工资；重新谈判有问题的贸易协议；并将关键制造业产业重新迁回美国时，他们依然表示怀疑。”
“The doomers and naysayers have consistently doubted President Trump: when he pledged to create the historic Trump Accounts, lowered prescription prices with Most Favored Nations, secured the border with no crossings, cleaned up our streets, ended taxes on tips, grew real wages, renegotiated broken trade deals, and reshored key manufacturing back to the United States,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement.
上个月，在达拉斯举行的共和党中期选举大会上，特朗普承诺向所有美国成年人发放金额为5000美元的“特朗普红利”。他将这一福利的发放条件设定为共和党必须赢得中期选举，并强调这笔钱必须在美国境内使用。
Trump promised the $5,000 “Trump dividend” check to all American adults last month during the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas. He made it contingent on the GOP winning the midterm elections and said it had to be spent in the U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said he would introduce legislation to support the $5,000 dividend.
俄亥俄州共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺表示，他将推动相关立法以落实这一红利计划：“我会在11月3日选举结束后立即准备相关法案，确保‘特朗普红利’能够尽快获得通过……因为共和党（以及整个美国）一定会获胜！”
“I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election … because Republicans (and America) will win!”Moreno wrote on X after Trump made the initial announcement.
周一在堪萨斯州，特朗普宣布：如果共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔在下个月赢得连任，E15（含15%乙醇的混合燃料）的销售将不再受季节性限制（目前仅在夏季被禁止），并允许全年销售。他还表示，如果堪萨斯州的共和党人获胜，还会有更多福利措施出台。
On Monday in Kansas, Trump told the audience he’ll make the sale of E15 — fuel blended with 15 percent ethanol — allowed year-round instead of being restricted during the summer months for environmental reasons, but only if GOP Sen. Roger Marshall wins reelection next month. He said more “goodies” could be coming if the Republicans in Kansas are elected.
周二在北卡罗来纳州，特朗普将坎普莱琼基地的水污染问题解决计划与共和党的胜选挂钩：“如果我们没有获胜，这笔钱就拿不到；但如果我们赢了，这些福利就会实现。多年来一直困扰我们的这场‘噩梦’终于会结束。我们永远不会抛弃那些为美国付出努力的英雄们。”
In North Carolina on Tuesday, Trump tied Camp Lejeune toxic water settlements to the GOP winning. “If we don’t win, there’s no money,” he said in Greenville. “If we do win, you’re getting it. It’s going to be finally over with that nightmare that’s been going on for so many years. We will never abandon the heroes who served America.”
上周在肯塔基州，特朗普承诺：如果共和党获胜，将向制药公司Antheia投资1亿美元，以帮助该公司振兴生产设施。他还表示，如果俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯蒂德击败民主党候选人谢罗德·布朗，俄亥俄州将有望成为美国太空军的基地所在地。
Last week in Kentucky, he promised a major investment of $100 million in the pharmaceutical company Antheia to revitalize the facility if Republicans win. He said Ohio would be “very strongly” considered for the Space Force Academy if Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) prevails over Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown.
特朗普还承诺向爱荷华州、肯塔基州和威斯康星州等州提供数百万美元的灾后救济资金，但这些承诺的前提是共和党候选人必须获胜。一些人批评特朗普的这些有条件的承诺。威斯康星州民主党州长托尼·埃弗斯在社交媒体上写道：“只有等到事情真正发生时，威斯康星州的民众才会相信特朗普的承诺。”他指责特朗普和共和党候选人汤姆·蒂芙尼“正在利用本应用于帮助灾后社区恢复的紧急救援资金来谋取政治利益”。
Trump has also promised millions in disaster relief to states like Iowa, Kentucky and Wisconsin, all contingent on the Republican candidates winning. Some have called Trump out for these conditional promises. “Wisconsinites will believe it when we see it,” Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers wrote on X about Trump’s promise of disaster aid to Wisconsin if Republican candidate Tom Tiffany wins. “Clearly, President Trump and Congressman Tiffany are continuing to play politics with emergency aid that’s meant to help communities recover in the wake of disasters like tornadoes and floods,” he wrote. “That’s Complete and Total Bulls---.”
周末发布的《华盛顿邮报》-ABC新闻-Ipsos联合民调显示，特朗普的支持率跌至历史新低（33%），约66%的受访者对特朗普的表现表示不满。高昂的开支以及与伊朗的战争让共和党人对选举结果感到担忧。布鲁金斯学会治理研究高级研究员伊莱恩·卡马克指出：“我们面对的是一个极其愤世嫉俗的选民群体，因此很难想象这些承诺能够真正奏效。”
Trump’s approval rating hit a record low in a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released over the weekend, at 33 percent. Roughly 66 percent said they disapprove of his performance. High costs and the Iran war have hurt Republicans and made them wary of their elections. “We’re facing an extraordinarily cynical electorate,” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institute, said. “So it’s hard to imagine that any of this works.”
此外，关于特朗普承诺的合法性也引发了争议——特别是他承诺如果共和党获胜，将向美国人发放5000美元奖金的承诺。康表示：“从某些角度来看，特朗普政府及其领导人的言论方式非常粗俗，因为他们显然是在试图通过金钱来影响选民的投票行为；但从另一方面来看，他们也很善于用巧妙的语言来规避法律风险。”哥伦比亚大学法学院教授理查德·布里福尔认为，特朗普的这些承诺属于“受宪法保护的言论”；他解释说：“这并不构成贿赂，因为特朗普并没有向任何个人提供实质性的利益。”
Questions of legality have arisen, especially surrounding the $5,000 dividend Trump promised to Americans if Republicans win. “In a lot of ways, the way the Trump administration and Donald Trump himself, the way they sort of propose things and they talk about money and politics often is very crass because it’s obviously what they are trying to incentivize people to do,” Kang said. “But in other ways I think the Trump’s administration and Trump himself, they’re very clever about just saying things in a way that avoids the kind of legal problems.”Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School, said Trump’s promises are “constitutionally protected messages...they’re constitutionally protected speech."
“我认为，这些承诺之所以毫无可信度，正是因为它们完全脱离了现实，因此根本无法在法律或道德的框架内得到认可；它们只不过是一些空洞的竞选口号罢了。”卡马克表示，她认为这些承诺无法为共和党人带来额外的选票。“他已陷入绝境，所以只能不断尝试各种办法，就像把意大利面扔向墙壁，看看哪些方法能奏效一样，”卡马克说。
“It doesn’t really amount to the level of bribe because he’s not offering anything to any one person,” Briffault said. “I think it’s the sheer implausibility of it that takes it out of any kind of legal or ethical setting and basically makes it into empty campaign rhetoric.”And Kamarck said she doesn’t see these promises getting Republicans extra votes. “He’s desperate and so he keeps…taking spaghetti, throwing it against the wall and see what sticks,” Kamarck said.
“他正在随意提出各种主张，希望能说服美国人在中期选举中投票给共和党人。但我认为这根本行不通。”她评价这些承诺时说：“这对总统来说绝对是前所未有的。”
“He’s throwing out things to see if any of them could convince Americans to vote for Republicans in the midterms. And I don’t think it’s going to work.”“This is totally unprecedented for presidents,” she said of the promises.