总统唐纳德·特朗普在上个月的共和党中期选举大会上，以一项极具争议的提议开启了他的全国大选攻势：保持共和党在议会中的多数席位，所有美国成年人将获得5,000美元。快进到一个半月后，他的让步进一步深化——并更加本土化。
President Donald Trump kicked off his general election push at last month’s Republican midterm convention by making voters a highly controversial offer: Keep Republicans in the majority, and every US adult will get $5,000. Fast forward a month and a half, and he’s gone quite a bit further — and more localized — with his quid pro quos.
事实上，特朗普现在已向大约一半的关键参议院竞选州的选民提供了非常具体的承诺，只要他们投票支持共和党。
In fact, Trump has now offered voters in about half of states holding key Senate contests very specific things if they vote for Republicans.
有时这些承诺被包装成显而易见的笑话。但越来越多的承诺并非如此。即便是所谓的笑话，也很难因为特朗普的过往记录而轻易否认。
Sometimes they’re couched as apparent jokes. But increasingly, they’re not. And even the supposed jokes are difficult to dismiss given Trump’s track record.
政客在赢得选举并在国会掌权后，向选民说明他们将追求哪些议程项目是正常的，但其中许多承诺如果特朗普愿意，他现在就能兑现。相反，他却以一种极具交易性的方式将这些承诺悬在选民头顶。以下是这些让步的演变过程。
While it’s normal for politicians to tell voters what agenda items they’ll pursue if they win and gain power in Congress, many of these are promises Trump could deliver now if he wanted to. But he’s instead holding them over voters’ heads in a strikingly transactional way. Here’s the progression of quid pro quos.
9月16日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州加斯托尼亚表示，他将把该州的飓风灾害救济与选民选举共和党人迈克尔·沃特利进入参议院挂钩。“现在，如果迈克尔输了，我就不发这笔钱。行吗？”特朗普说，随后又声称他“只是开个玩笑”。
September 16: Trump says in Gastonia, North Carolina, that he’ll tie the state’s hurricane disaster relief to voters electing Republican Michael Whatley to the Senate. “Now, if Michael loses, I’m not sending it. Okay?”Trump says, before claiming he’s “only kidding.”
即便他是在开玩笑，特朗普政府在红州的灾害援助上显然更为慷慨、行动也更快，而且它最近在法庭上承认，其拨款决定“完全基于拨款接受者所在州的政治身份”。
Even if he was joking, the Trump administration has clearly been more generous and quicker with disaster aid in red states, and it recently admitted in court that it made grant decisions “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state.”
10月3日：特朗普在俄亥俄州范达利亚表示，“当你身为总统时，你对各州拥有很大的权力。”他说俄亥俄州的共和党参议员可以利用与特朗普的关系为本州争取资金，但谈到民主党州长候选人艾米·阿克顿时说：“我大概不会帮她。她恨我，我猜。”
October 3: Trump says in Vandalia, Ohio, that, “when you are president, you have a lot of power over states.”He says that Ohio’s GOP senators can their access to Trump to get money for their state, but adds of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton: “I’m not gonna help her, probably. She hates me, I guess.”
10月17日：特朗普在肯塔基州海兰海茨表示，“如果共和党人获胜，战争部将投资1亿美元……重振肯塔基州温彻斯特一座大型药品生产设施。”他随后补充说，“但如果民主党人获胜，就不会有这笔投资，因为他们做不成这件事。”10月19日和22日：特朗普在堪萨斯州帕克城和艾奥瓦州苏城的两场集会上都表示，如果共和党人获胜，他将永久允许E15燃料——掺入最高15%乙醇的汽油——全年销售。
October 17: Trump says in Highland Heights, Kentucky, “If the Republicans win, the Department of War will be investing $100 million … to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.”He then adds, “But if the Democrats win, it doesn’t, because they wouldn’t be able to do it.”October 19 and 22: Trump tells rallies in both Park City, Kansas, and Sioux City, Iowa, that he’ll make E15 fuel — gasoline blended with up to 15% ethanol — available on a year-round basis permanently if Republicans win.
“有（堪萨斯州共和党参议员）罗杰·马歇尔在参议院，我们将让全年E15永久化，”特朗普在前一场活动中说，随后夸张地表示：“但如果（民主党人）亚当·汉密尔顿当选，我就不做。就这样。我只为”马歇尔“做这件事。”
“With (Kansas GOP Sen.) Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent,” Trump says in the former appearance, before saying exaggeratedly: “But if (Democrat) Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for” Marshall.
10月20日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔表示，“如果我们赢得众议院和参议院，我将指示司法部尽快解决所有剩余的合法索赔”，这些索赔与勒琼营的水污染有关。他补充道：“所以，如果我们不赢，就没有钱。如果我们赢了，你们就能拿到钱。”
October 20: Trump says in Greenville, North Carolina, that “if we win the House and the Senate, I will be directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims” related to water contamination at Camp Lejeune “as soon as possible.”He adds: “So, if we don’t win, there’s no money. If we do win, you’re getting it.”
10月24日：特朗普在佐治亚州佩里表示，他不会接听民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫寻求帮助农民和其他便利的电话。特朗普设想了一场对话，他在其中说：“告诉他我不在。我不在。”想象中的对方回应：“但他需要给佐治亚州的钱。”特朗普说：“我才不在乎他想要什么。我不在。”
October 24: Trump says in Perry, Georgia, that he wouldn’t accept calls from Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff looking for help for farmers and other favors. Trump imagines a conversation in which he says, “Tell him I’m not in. I’m not in.”The imaginary other person responds, “But he needs money for Georgia.”Trump says, “I don’t give a damn what he wants. I’m not in.”
10月24日：特朗普在社交媒体帖子中暗示，如果民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉获胜，他将停止向阿拉斯加提供数十亿美元。“我已为阿拉斯加提供了历史性水平的支持，”特朗普说，随后补充道：“民主党人试图窃取这个重要的共和党席位，如果发生这种情况，我们为阿拉斯加所做的一切将立即停止” [原文sic]。
October 24: Trump in a social media post signals he will stop delivering billions of dollars for Alaska if Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola wins. “I have delivered for Alaska at Historic Levels,” Trump says, before adding: “The Democrats are trying to steal this important Republican Seat and, if that happens, everything we’ve done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault” [sic].
无论这些言论中的任何一条是否以玩笑形式表达，或可能被解读为指代立法行动——如永久性全年销售E15燃料——它们的主旨都是显而易见的。特朗普希望美国人将投票给共和党与他给予他们想要的东西联系起来。
Whether any of these comments is couched as a joke or might be read to refer to legislative action — like permanent year-round E15 — the thrust of all of them is unmistakable. Trump wants Americans to associate voting Republican with him giving them things they want.
但即使共和党在2026年大选中获胜，他似乎拥有的实现这些事情的权力，与今天相比并无二致。（毕竟，共和党已经控制了众议院和参议院。）即使涉及飓风救灾和勒琼营受害者多年遭受痛苦后的赔偿等生死攸关的议题，特朗普也愿意提出这些权钱交易。
But he would seem to have just as much power to accomplish those things today as he would after the 2026 election, even if Republicans win. (The GOP, after all, already controls the House and Senate.) And Trump has been willing to float these quid pro quos even when they involve deadly serious subjects like hurricane relief and compensation for victims who have suffered for years from Camp Lejeune.
特朗普现在还向美国人提供更大笔的金钱——高达100万美元——如果他们举报欺诈行为并导致定罪。
Trump is also now offering Americans even larger sums of money — up to $1 million — if they report fraud that results in a conviction.
目前甚至不清楚这一策略在政治上是否有利。例如，民调显示特朗普的5000美元提议反响不佳。
It’s also not even clear that this strategy is good politics. Polls suggest Trump’s $5,000 offer, for instance, has gone over poorly.
路透社/益普索上月的一项民调显示，注册选民以66%对18%的比例认为特朗普的承诺不合适。NBC新闻最近的一项民调显示，不到六分之一的注册选民认为，如果共和党获胜，他们实际拿到这笔钱的可能性很大。选民以46%对21%的比例表示，支持特朗普这一想法的候选人会让他们更不可能投票给此人，而非更有可能。
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed registered voters said 66%-18% that Trump’s promise was inappropriate. A more recent NBC News poll showed fewer than 1 in 6 registered voters thought it was likely they would actually get the money if Republicans won. And they said 46%-21% that a candidate supporting Trump’s idea would make them less likely to vote for that person rather than more likely.
但这些民调并未阻止特朗普提出更多交换条件。如果说有什么变化，那就是在2026年竞选活动的最后阶段，这种做法正在加速。
But those polls haven’t dissuaded Trump from offering more quid pro quos. If anything, it’s accelerating in the final stretch of the 2026 campaign.