北京一家政府智库的研究人员表示，中国应抓住中美利差扩大所打开的窗口，加强支撑人民币的融资、对冲和资产吸纳体系，将周期性的低利率优势转化为该货币持久的全球使用。
China should seize a window opened by the widening US-China yield gap to strengthen the financing, hedging and asset-absorption systems behind the yuan, turning its cyclical low-interest-rate advantage into lasting global use of the currency, according to a researcher from a Beijing-based governmental think tank.
周四，美国10年期国债收益率达到5.22%，而中国国债在国庆节假期后的首个交易日收益率为1.69%，利差约为3.5个百分点，低于9月9日创下的3.7个百分点的历史高点。
The 10-year US Treasury yield was 5.22 per cent on Thursday, compared with 1.69 per cent for Chinese government bonds on their first trading day after the National Day holiday – a gap of about 3.5 percentage points, compared with a record 3.7 percentage points on September 9.
中国社会科学院金融研究所的副研究员姜振龙认为，美国更高的收益率削弱了人民币资产的吸引力，并加剧了汇率和资本流动的压力，但也推高了美元融资成本。
Jiang Zhenlong, an associate research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Finance and Banking, argued that higher US yields weaken the appeal of yuan assets and add pressure on the exchange rate and capital flows, but also raise dollar funding costs.
他在央行下属刊物《中国货币市场》最新一期中写道：“中美利差倒挂产生了不对称影响：一方面给资产配置带来压力，另一方面则为融资带来利好。”
“The China-US yield inversion presents an asymmetric effect: pressure on the asset allocation side and benefit on the financing side,” he wrote in the latest issue of China Money Market, a central bank-affiliated magazine.
借款人已作出回应。姜振龙援引国际媒体数据称，截至9月初，境内和境外人民币债券融资总额已超过1万亿元，创下纪录。
Borrowers have responded, with Jiang citing international media data showing yuan bond fundraising – onshore and offshore – had topped 1 trillion yuan by early September, a record.
但他指出，对人民币融资的需求并不必然意味着对持有人民币资产的需求，并强调“中国金融市场仍缺乏吸纳和留住全球资本的能力”。
But demand for yuan financing does not necessarily mean demand to hold yuan assets, he wrote, pointing out that “China’s financial market still lacks sufficient capacity to absorb and retain global capital”.
官方数据也反映了这一问题。国际货币基金组织的数据显示，第二季度人民币在全球官方储备中的占比为2.11%，而美元则高达56.70%。
Official figures reflect the problem – the yuan made up 2.11 per cent of global official reserves in the second quarter, against 56.70 per cent for the US dollar, International Monetary Fund data shows.
他还警告称，利差扩大可能鼓励“套息交易”——即借入人民币、将其卖出并购买更高收益的外国资产——这可能会对该货币造成持续的抛售压力。目前，人民币兑美元汇率稳定在6.7左右。
He also warned that the wider gap may encourage carry trades – borrowing yuan, selling it and buying higher-yielding foreign assets – which could create persistent selling pressure on the currency. So far, the yuan has held steady at about 6.7 per dollar.
他呼吁采取措施，包括将人民币借贷与真实贸易和投资挂钩、在压力时期加强离岸流动性、扩展长期限对冲工具，以及追踪借入人民币的用途，以区分真实融资与套息交易。
He called for measures including tying yuan borrowing to real trade and investment, bolstering offshore liquidity during stress, expanding longer-dated hedging tools and tracking how borrowed yuan was used to separate genuine financing from carry trades.
作为离岸人民币债券发行的主要场所，香港一直在扩展其工具箱。为加强国际投资者的风险管理，香港交易及结算所有限公司于8月3日推出了离岸市场首个五年期中国国债期货。
Hong Kong, the main venue for offshore yuan bond sales, has been expanding its tools. To bolster risk management for international investors, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing launched the offshore market’s first five-year Chinese government bond futures on August 3.
香港金融管理局总裁余伟文上月表示，当局还在探索设立七天期离岸人民币流动性投标机制，以拓宽银行获取短期资金的渠道。
Local authorities were also exploring a seven-day offshore yuan liquidity tendering mechanism to broaden banks’ access to short-term funding, Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Eddie Yu said last month.
姜某写道：“人民币的低利率成本优势只有植根于实体经济和贸易活动，才能真正成为国际化的长期驱动力。”
“The yuan’s low-interest-rate cost advantages can truly become a long-term driver of internationalisation only if it is embedded in real economy and trade activity,” Jiang wrote.
他补充道，提升人民币资产的流动性、便利性和抵押功能，“比单纯追求收益水平更为重要”。文/吴黛西
Improving the liquidity, convenience and collateral function of yuan assets was “more important than simply chasing yield levels,” he added.