
詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯五角大楼本周突然从英国一个空军基地撤走十余架远程B-1轰炸机,引发了一系列令人担忧的问题。副总统J.D. Vance表示,此举是“出于极度谨慎”,因为美国和英国官员据称收到了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下令的潜在无人机袭击警告。
The Pentagon’s abrupt withdrawal of a dozen long-range B-1 bombers from a British airbase this week raises a host of troubling questions. Vice President J.D. Vance said the move was made “out of an abundance of caution” after US and British officials reportedly received warnings of a potential drone attack ordered by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
这自然让人想起2025年6月乌克兰对俄罗斯战略轰炸机的“蜘蛛网行动”,当时乌克兰将无人机装在卡车里运入俄罗斯,随后发射,取得了惊人的效果。
This naturally brings to mind Operation Spiderweb, the innovative Ukrainian strikes in June 2025 against Russian strategic bombers more than 1,000 miles from Kyiv. The Ukrainians moved their drones into Russia in trucks and then launched them with spectacular results.
伊朗和其他所有军事大国一样,正关注世界另一大战场的动态。数月来,伊朗也一直袭击中东的美军基地,造成了重大破坏,尤其是巴林海军第五舰队总部。
The Iranians, like every other military power, are paying attention to what’s going on in the world’s other major theater of war. Tehran has also been striking US military bases in the Middle East for months, causing significant damage, especially to the headquarters of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
五角大楼应如何为这一新兴威胁做好准备,以防其全球基地网络受到攻击——即使是像英国费尔福德这样曾被视为安全避风港的地点?
How should the Pentagon prepare for this emerging threat against its global network of bases — even at locations once assumed to be safe havens such as Fairford in the UK?
美国在80多个国家拥有约750个军事设施,规模从小型通信中继站到德国拉姆施泰因空军基地这样的大型设施不等。拉姆施泰因拥有如此庞大的军需品和兑换中心,以至于我们曾开玩笑说从太空都能看到它。
The US has roughly 750 military installations in more than 80 countries. These range from small communications-relay sites to massive installations such as Ramstein Air Base in Germany, which has a commissary and exchange complex so big we used to joke you could see it from space.
十多年前,我担任北约最高盟军司令时,始终在思考部队防护的必要性。我们最大的担忧是基地会遭到基地组织及其附属组织使用装有炸药的卡车或自杀式炸弹进行相对低技术的袭击。当时我们并不需要担心高科技无人机攻击,但许多基地防护的原则是相通的。
I grappled with the imperatives of force protection constantly while I was the supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization more than a decade ago. Our biggest concern was that al-Qaeda and its affiliates would carry out relatively unsophisticated attacks with explosive-laden trucks or suicide bombers. We didn’t have to worry about high-tech drone attacks, but many of the principles of base protection are the same.
通常而言,五角大楼在海外的军事基地并不被视为美国领土;驻外美军只是东道国基地的“客人”。应对当前各类威胁的首要举措便是重新审视那些规范美军与东道国关系的复杂协议,以确保最大程度的安全与顺畅协作,并对那些不合时宜的协议重新进行谈判。1983年贝鲁特美国海军陆战队营房遭炸弹袭击,导致近300名美军及法军士兵丧生,这一事件充分说明了在东道国局势动荡不安的环境下可能出现的严重后果。
The Pentagon’s installations abroad are generally not regarded as US territory; US forces are typically guests on the host nation’s installation. The first step in countering today’s threats is reviewing the complex agreements governing relationships with host nations to ensure maximum safety and smooth interoperation — and renegotiating those that don’t. The 1983 bombings of the US Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed nearly 300 US and French troops, showed what can go wrong in a fractured and uncertain host-nation environment.
第二项优先事项便是与东道国共享情报。英国提供的情报很可能是促使美军决定撤出B-1“枪骑兵”轰炸机的原因。然而,东道国与驻军之间的情报共享往往缺乏连贯性,沟通渠道也并不清晰。鉴于全球安全风险日益加剧,针对任何重大威胁的双向情报交流不应仅局限于当地指挥官层面,而应直达两国最高情报决策层。
A second priority is sharing intelligence with the host nation. Information provided by the UK was probably behind the decision to pull the B-1 Lancers out. But intelligence-sharing between host and guest is often inconsistent, and channels of communication can be unclear. Given rising global risks, the two-way flow of information on any serious threat should go beyond the local commanders and to the top of the intelligence ladders in both countries.
历史同样为我们提供了惨痛的教训:1996年沙特阿拉伯的胡巴尔塔楼爆炸事件导致19余人丧生、400余人受伤,其发生原因之一便是沙特政府与当地美军空军指挥官之间的情报合作存在严重疏漏。
Again, history has a deadly lesson: The Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia in 1996, in which more than 19 people were killed and 400 injured, was partly the result of poor intelligence cooperation between the Saudi government and local US Air Force commanders.
第三项优先事项则是各军事基地周边、上空乃至地下的物理安全防护。通常情况下,外部安全事务由东道国负责。但双方应共同努力,强化基地周边的防护屏障及其他防御措施。五角大楼需对其所有海外基地展开全面审查,评估其抵御各类无人技术攻击的能力——尤其是无人机,同时也需防范地面、地下及海上无人平台的威胁。此类审查应首先从那些位于俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜周边国家的基地开始。
A third priority is the physical security around, over and even under each base. Ordinarily, the host nation has the lead on external security arrangements. But we should encourage joint efforts to strengthen perimeter barriers and other defenses. The Pentagon needs to undertake a top-to-bottom review of all its bases for protection against unmanned technologies: aerial drones in particular, but also surface, tunneling and maritime platforms. This should start with bases in countries closest to Russia, Iran and North Korea.
对美国基地的任何审查都应包括对其电力供应、水源、IT基础设施和指挥控制节点的研究。虽然可以理解伊朗人对大胆的无人机攻击B-1轰炸机的兴趣,但俄罗斯更可能以不那么戏剧化但更有效的方式利用其网络战能力,对欧洲的大型美国基地如拉姆斯坦进行攻击。
Any review of US bases should also include studying their power supplies, water sources, IT infrastructure and command-and-control nodes. While you can see why an audacious drone attack on B-1 bombers would appeal to the Iranians, Russia is more likely to use its cyberwarfare capabilities in less dramatic but more effective ways against huge US bases in Europe like Ramstein.
另一种做法可以基于“凤凰乌鸦”——被指定为“飞行安全”的高度训练的空军人员,负责保护海外高价值飞机。他们通常搭乘货运和人员航班,进行机场评估并与当地安保团队合作。扩大这一精英部队的规模——目前获得该称号的军人不足3,000人——并为其他军种发展类似部队,将是明智之举。
Another step could be based on the Phoenix Ravens, highly trained Air Force personnel designated as “flyaway security” to protect high-value aircraft overseas. They typically travel on cargo and personnel flights, conduct airfield assessments and work with local security teams. Expanding this elite group’s numbers — fewer than 3,000 service members have earned the designation — and developing similar forces for the other services would be a smart move.
虽然提升每个设施的安全是迫切需求,但有时通过缩小规模也能更安全。国防部应对整个基地网络进行审查,着眼于削减可能冗余或特别脆弱的部分。在中东和欧洲可能存在一些规模缩小的实体存在更为合理的地点。
While improving security at each installation is an urgent need, sometimes you can get safer by getting smaller. The Pentagon should conduct a review of its entire basing network with an eye toward cutting back where it may be redundant or especially vulnerable. In the Middle East and Europe there are probably locations where a downsized physical presence could make sense.
全球基地网络具有深远的军事价值——它使我们能够监视威胁、前置人员和装备,并与数十个国家的当地军队建立联系。但它也为我们的敌人提供了大量目标。将B-1从费尔福德撤出可能是正确的决定——英国当局已在调查中逮捕了七人。但美国军方需要更好地准备来应对这些威胁,即使这意味着要缩小全球足迹,也应在采取如此激进措施之前做好准备。
A worldwide web of bases has deep military value — it allows us to monitor threats, forward-position personnel and equipment, and forge links with local militaries in scores of countries. But it also creates a huge set of targets for our enemies. Pulling the B-1s out of Fairford was probably the right move — UK authorities have made seven arrests in their investigation. But the US military needs better preparation to combat these threats before such drastic steps are required, even if this means shrinking that global footprint.