斯德哥尔摩——近日，在Polymarket平台上，关于2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主的投注热度迅速攀升。这一情况与一年前类似：当时该网站遭黑客攻击，导致获奖者姓名可能被泄露。
STOCKHOLM – Bets for who will take home the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize surged overnight on Polymarket, echoing similar events a year ago when a website hacking likely leaked the winner’s name.
俄罗斯已故反对派领袖阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼的遗孀尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼，如今在10月9日正式公布结果前，成为该平台上最受瞩目的候选人。她的胜出概率一度高达65.5%，目前仍维持在46%左右；相关投注总额已超过170万美元（约合220万新元）。整个活动的投注总额则超过了3000万美元。
Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, has suddenly emerged as frontrunner in betting on the Polymarket platform before the announcement due later on Oct 9. Her odds went as high as 65.5% at one point, now sitting at around 46% with more than US$1.7 million (S$2.2 million) in betting volume. The event overall has a volume of just over US$30 million.
2025年，诺贝尔和平奖得主玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多的姓名也曾提前泄露，引发Polymarket平台上的投注热潮，随后她果然被宣布为获奖者。此前，这位委内瑞拉反对派领袖并不被视为该奖项的热门人选。挪威诺贝尔研究所与安全部门经调查后认定，系有人或某个国家行为体通过网络攻击非法获取了网站信息。
In 2025, a leak of Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado’s name triggered an unusual betting surge on the Polymarket platform hours before she was unveiled as the award recipient. The Venezuelan opposition leader had not previously been considered a favourite for the 2025 prize. An investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute assisted by security authorities later concluded that an individual or a state actor may have illegally gained access to its website in a cyber breach.
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼目前身处流亡地，自其丈夫于2024年2月在北极地区的一所监狱中去世后，她便继续着丈夫的政治事业。纳瓦尔尼的死因被其支持者及西方多国政府归咎于俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的专制统治。
Navalnaya, from exile, has carried on her husband’s campaign after his February 2024 death in an Arctic prison that his supporters and Western governments blamed on the authoritarian regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
作为全球最具影响力的外交奖项，诺贝尔和平奖近年来争议不断。2025年，一直渴望获得该奖的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾积极争取，但最终落空。2026年初，马查多更是将自己的奖章赠予特朗普，此举令挪威举国震惊。
Arguably the most prestigious prize in global diplomacy, the Nobel Peace Prize has stirred more controversy. In 2025, US President Donald Trump, who has long coveted the award, aggressively campaigned to obtain the award, in vain. Earlier in 2026, Machado gifted her medal to Trump, stunning Norway.
诺贝尔奖每年颁发一次，旨在表彰在物理学、化学、医学、和平及文学领域的杰出成就。该奖项由瑞典炸药发明者阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔在其遗嘱中设立，他于1896年去世。除和平奖外，其余奖项均在斯德哥尔摩颁发，2026年的获奖者将分别获得1200万瑞典克朗（约合150万新元）的奖金。来源：彭博社
The Nobel prizes are annual awards for achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, peace and literature. They were established in the will of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish inventor of dynamite who died in 1896. All except the Peace Prize are awarded in Stockholm, and the awards in 2026 come with 12 million kronor (S$1.5 million) of money. BLOOMBERG