2023年7月6日，在中国上海举行的世界人工智能大会（WAIC）上，可以看到一个人工智能（AI）标志。片（权需在新标签页中打开） 墨尔本，10月9日——错失恐惧（FOMO）可能是一种强烈的情绪。然而，Firmus Technologies似乎将这种情绪发挥到了极致。周五，这家获得英伟达支持的新云公司放弃了首次公开募股（IPO），此前其估值目标为440亿澳元（310亿美元）——这比8月份融资轮中设定的估值高三倍，也比一年前的价值高出23倍。
An AI (Artificial Intelligence) sign is seen at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai, China July 6, 2023. MELBOURNE, Oct 9 - Fear of missing out can be a powerful emotion. Firmus Technologies, though, appears to have taken it too far. On Friday the Nvidia backed neocloud firm ditched its IPO after aiming for a A$44 billion ($31 billion) valuation - triple that set in an August funding round and 23 times higher than its worth a year earlier.
这一决定以及其他一系列担忧，让这家数据中心开发商的潜在股东将“错失恐惧”（FOMO）转变为“被坑恐惧”（FOGS）。
That and a slew of other worries had potential shareholders in the data center developer switching FOMO for FOGS - fear of getting screwed.
当然，尝试推出这项交易本身或许就不是最佳时机。如果成功，这将是近三十年来澳大利亚最大的首次公开募股，预计将筹集超过50亿美元。战争和地缘政治问题已使全球市场普遍动荡——例如，周四油价单日就飙升了5%。此外，随着对人工智能技术的担忧加剧，相关股票也遭受了打击：例如，竞争对手新云公司CoreWeave的股票自5月份高点以来已下跌41%；Anthropic和OpenAI也都推迟了自己的IPO计划。
Sure, it wasn't necessarily the best time to try to launch what would have been, at more than $5 billion raised, the biggest initial public offering in Australia in almost three decades. War and geopolitical have made global markets volatile in general - the oil price shot up 5% on Thursday alone, for example. And AI-related stocks have taken hits as concerns grow about the technology: shares in rival neocloud CoreWeave for example, have fallen 41% since a May peak; Anthropic and OpenAI have both pushed back their own IPO plans.
《虚假信息观察》简报会汇总国际范围内的虚假信息叙事，每期均附有“是真的还是假的？”测验。
But all that was known before Firmus co-CEOs Tim Rosenfield and Oliver Curtis embarked on their sales pitch.
但所有这些情况，在Firmus的联合首席执行官Tim Rosenfield和Oliver Curtis开始路演之前，其实就已经为人所知。直到周二，他们和他们的顾问们仍然相信能够达成预期的估值目标。毕竟，他们已与OpenAI等超大规模科技公司签署了合同，并表示现有股东将认购此次发行的大约一半股份。
Until Tuesday they and their advisers were confident they'd secure the price tag they were shooting for. They did, after all, have signed contracts with hyperscalers like OpenAI and said existing owners would buy around half of the offer.
他们还大力宣传公司成本更低的模式，支持者称这将使其成为数据中心提供商中的“必和必拓”（BHP）——这明显是在影射这家澳大利亚矿业公司能够比竞争对手更廉价地开采铁矿石，同时也是相当直白地试图将自己与该国最大的上市公司、最大的出口商和纳税人之一相提并论。
And they touted the firm's lower-cost model, which supporters said would make it the BHP of data centre providers - a clear reference to the Australian-based miner's ability to dig up iron ore more cheaply than rivals, and a rather unsubtle attempt to be viewed in the same light as the country's biggest listed company and one of its biggest exporters and taxpayers.
问题在于，Firmus 的业绩记录非常短暂，其计划中的 1 吉瓦产能中仅有 42 兆瓦投入运营。此外，在过去几个月里，该公司还从主要面向国内市场转向瞄准亚洲市场；虽然追随客户可以理解，但这种战略转向也引发了更多对其能否实现目标的质疑。其澳大利亚合作伙伴 CDC Data Centres 周二更是雪上加霜，首席执行官 Greg Boorer 表示，双方的合作基本上已经彻底失败。
Trouble is, Firmus has a very short track record, with just 42 megawatts of its hoped-for 1 gigawatt of capacity up and running. It also in the past couple of months shifted from being a mostly domestic player to targeting Asia; while it's understandable to follow your clients, the pivot raised more questions about its ability to hit its targets. Its Australia partner, CDC Data Centres, rubbed plenty of salt into that wound on Tuesday when CEO Greg Boorer said their venture was essentially toast.
Firmus 团队自身也并未做出多少贡献：他们不仅推行了非传统的估值指标，还允许目前持有公司近 60% 股份的投资人在股票开始交易后立即出售其持股——此举可能导致股价暴跌。所有这些因素叠加在一起，将原本看似稳操胜券的局面变成了混乱不堪的灾难，也让“错失恐惧症”（FOMO Sapiens）的投资者陷入了困境——至少目前是如此。
Nor did Team Firmus do themselves much of a favour by pushing unconventional valuation metrics and allowing current investors that own almost 60% of the company to sell their stakes as soon as the stock started trading - which would risk tanking the price.
背景新闻：Firmus Technologies 于 10 月 9 日撤回了其首次公开募股（IPO）申请。当天本应是其发布招股说明书的日子，而该公司此前设定的股价为每股 11 澳元，若以此发行，这家数据中心开发商的市值将接近 440 亿澳元。
It all totted up to turn a sure thing into a mess and shoved FOMO Sapiens into a corner - for now. Context News Firmus Technologies withdrew its IPO on October 9, the day it was due to publish its prospectus and after aiming for a price of A$11 a share, which would have given the data centre developer a market worth of almost A$44 billion.
公司在一份声明中表示，“近期的市场波动和当前的市场状况”意味着“此次发行的条款将无法恰当反映公司业务的实力及长期增长前景”。此前，潜在股东已对该估值表示不满。
In a statement the company said "recent market volatility and prevailing market conditions" meant "the terms on which the offer could proceed would not appropriately reflect the strength of the Company's business and long-term growth outlook". That came after prospective shareholders baulked at the valuation.
Firmus 还表示，将寻求“其他公开和私人市场渠道”来筹集资金。
Firmus also said it would pursue "alternative public and private-market options" for raising capital.
作者为路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。文中观点仅代表作者本人。后续将更新图表。
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Updates to add graphics.
【突发观点】路透社“突发观点”是全球领先的设定议程的金融洞察来源。作为路透社旗下的金融评论品牌，我们每日剖析全球突发的重要商业与经济事件。由约30名常驻纽约、伦敦、香港及其他主要城市的记者组成的全球团队，提供实时的专家分析。
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