SINGAPORE: Malaysia's efforts to re-engage Myanmar and support its eventual reintegration into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) come amid a broader increase in engagement between the bloc’s member states and Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing, observers say.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Thursday (Oct 8) pledged that he would do“whatever is possible” to strengthen cooperation and bring Myanmar back into the ASEAN fold.

Malaysia is the fifth ASEAN member state to host Min Aung Hlaing since he took office in April, after visits to Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos.

Analysts say the growing engagement raises questions about the bloc's unity and the future of the Five-Point Consensus.

Moe Thuzar, senior fellow and coordinator of the Myanmar Studies Programme at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, acknowledged the need to keep communication channels open, but warned against allowing dialogue to come at the expense of compliance and accountability.

Hunter Marston, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Australian think-tank The Lowy Institute, also noted that Malaysia's outreach to Myanmar appears to be driven partly by domestic political considerations.

"The push stems from Anwar's coalition's recent electoral losses in Johor Negeri Sembilan in July and August, which have prompted increased pressure on Anwar to act in response to popular opposition to the hosting of Rohingyas in Malaysia,” he said.

Rohingya Muslim refugees have been facing increasing harassment and scrutiny in Malaysia amid a surge of online hate speech and misinformation.

Malaysia has also said it can no longer take in refugees from Myanmar, saying they had become a financial burden and a security risk.

Anwar confirmed on Thursday that 10,493 Myanmar nationals had been repatriated so far this year and he has also vowed to push for Myanmar to accept Rohingya refugees.

While Malaysia’s position is that the visit does not amount to recognition of Myanmar's military-backed government, analysts say the growing number of ASEAN member states engaging with Min Aung Hlaing risks weakening the bloc's collective pressure on Myanmar and could further complicate efforts to uphold the peace plan.

"That increasingly divides ASEAN," Marston said, adding that countries such as the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia may find themselves in a “very uncomfortable position”.

He added that this also leaves the Five-Point Consensus – which all ASEAN countries, including Myanmar, agreed to in 2021 – in a “very tenuous position”.

ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus Following a 2021 military coup ASEAN has excluded Myanmar from high-level meetings as it has yet to make meaningful progress on the bloc's Five-Point Consensus to end hostilities.

During a meeting in April 2021, all ASEAN leaders reached a consensus about the situation in Myanmar. The five points are:

First, there shall be immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and all parties shall exercise utmost restraint.

Second, constructive dialogue among all parties concerned shall commence to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people. Third, a special envoy of the ASEAN chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with the assistance of the secretary-general of ASEAN. Fourth, ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the AHA Centre.

Fifth, the special envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned. Collapse Experts say that for Myanmar, the benefits of engagement outweigh the cost of taking back thousands of its nationals from Malaysia as it seeks to restore its standing within ASEAN and strengthen regional economic ties. “It's a small price to pay really for the de facto recognition that comes with a state visit to Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia literally rolled out the red carpet for Min Aung Hlaing,” Marston said.

“This is the normalisation that he is seeking within ASEAN. This is part of the long-term play to restore Myanmar's recognition … restore trade and intra-regional connectivity to get the economy of Myanmar back on its feet.”Marston noted that ASEAN's official position on Myanmar has not changed despite the growing number of member states engaging Min Aung Hlaing.

He pointed to comments by Philippine Foreign Minister Teresa Lazaro, who has said the Five-Point Consensus remains the bloc's preferred roadmap for Myanmar.

Marston added that Singapore appears poised to continue a similar approach when it assumes the ASEAN chairmanship in 2027.

MYANMAR LEADERSHIP SEEKING LEGITIMACY Thuzar also said that diplomatic outreach is part of a concerted push by Myanmar’s military leadership to gain greater acceptance within the region after years of diplomatic isolation.

"The optics that we're seeing out of this recent visit (to Malaysia) indicate that Naypyidaw is going to milk any diplomatic mileage that it can get out of it," she told CNA.

Thuzar noted that Myanmar has traditionally prioritised bilateral diplomacy, using ties with individual countries to advance its regional interests. She added that Min Aung Hlaing's overseas visits have often included business delegations and investment-focused engagements, underscoring efforts by Myanmar’s leadership to attract economic support amid ongoing instability at home.

ENGAGEMENT VS COMPLIANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY While acknowledging the need to keep communication channels open, Thuzar warned against allowing dialogue to come at the expense of compliance and accountability.

"There's no denying the need for dialogue and communication," she said. "But I think the nuance that we probably need to look out for in the coming weeks and months is compliance and accountability.”

She added that these considerations are crucial if ASEAN wants to maintain its position on implementing the Five-Point Consensus. She also pointed to the need for continued engagement with other Myanmar stakeholders, including the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s main opposition organisation which views itself as the country’s legitimate government.

Malaysia had previously stressed the importance of maintaining such balance, Thuzar noted. The question for ASEAN, both analysts suggested, is whether growing bilateral engagement with Myanmar can be reconciled with the bloc's long-standing position that meaningful progress on the Five-Point Consensus is needed before the country can be fully reintegrated into the regional fold.