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胡塞武装不是别人的问题。美国不能视而不见The Houthis aren't somebody else's problem. America can't afford to look away

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华盛顿有些人希望把胡塞武装视为“别人的麻烦”。这种想法不难理解:美国早已深陷与伊朗的对抗之中,而中期选举在即,各方都不愿进一步扩大战事。此外,胡塞武装还故意释放信号,声称不会将美国船只作为攻击目标,这也为华盛顿提供了减少军事介入的借口。

Some in Washington would like to believe the Houthis are somebody else’s problem. It is easy to understand why. America is already deeply engaged in the war with Iran, and there is little appetite for widening the battlefield with the midterm elections approaching. The Houthis have also cynically given Washington a reason to limit its involvement by signaling that American shipping will not be targeted.

然而,也门局势并非一场独立的冲突。被美国列为外国恐怖组织的胡塞武装与伊朗立场一致,且得到德黑兰的武装与支援;他们对也门境内由沙特支持的政府发动攻击,这其实也是整个地区对抗的一部分。

But Yemen is not a separate conflict. The Houthis—a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization aligned with Iran and armed and supported by Tehran—are waging a campaign against Yemen’s Saudi-backed government that forms part of the same regional confrontation.

值得欣慰的是,对也门政府而言,战局正朝着有利方向发展。尽管战斗依然艰难,且如同所有战争一样会有起伏波折,但沙特空军的支援下,也门政府军已将胡塞武装从曼德海峡周边一些战略要地驱逐出去,显示出自身的作战能力。这些战果虽仍面临威胁,但战场态势确实令人鼓舞。

The good news is that the war is beginning to move in the right direction for the Yemeni government, although the battle will be challenging and, like all battles, will have its ups and downs. Government forces, supported by Saudi air power, have expelled the Houthis from some strategically important areas around the Bab el-Mandeb and are demonstrating their capacity to operate effectively. These gains remain vulnerable, but the battlefield momentum is encouraging.

沙特阿拉伯向特朗普方面表示,眼下正是采取军事行动的最佳时机,因为伊朗支持的胡塞武装正在不断推进。这一情况也改变了美国是否介入的考量。目前美国虽尚未直接发动打击,但已向沙特提供情报与目标定位方面的协助。这些帮助极具价值:美国的卫星及其他监视系统有助于定位导弹发射阵地、无人机基地、指挥中心以及移动式发射装置。

SAUDI ARABIA TELLS TRUMP NOW IS THE TIME FOR MILITARY ACTION AS IRAN-BACKED HOUTHIS ADVANCE It also changes the calculation about American involvement. The United States is already providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence and targeting support while stopping short of direct strikes. That assistance is valuable. American satellites and other surveillance systems can help locate missile batteries, drone facilities, command centers and mobile launchers.

美国的直接空中力量能够显著提升情报的利用效率。美国战机可直接接入本国的情报、监视与目标定位网络,从而使卫星及其他传感器采集到的信息能迅速在“感知—打击”链条中传递。沙特战机同样能够获取美国及盟友提供的精准目标信息,包括通过具备互操作性的系统实现信息传递;不过,分享给盟友的情报在送达执行打击任务的战机前,可能还需经过额外的分发、审批及指挥流程。

Direct American air power could make that intelligence considerably more effective. U.S. aircraft can operate directly within American intelligence, surveillance and targeting networks, allowing information gathered by satellites and other sensors to move rapidly through the sensor-to-shooter chain. Saudi aircraft can also receive sophisticated U.S. and allied targeting information, including through interoperable systems, but intelligence shared with a partner may require additional dissemination, release and command steps before reaching the aircraft assigned to strike.

对于那些能在数分钟内完成发射、转移并隐匿踪迹的移动式导弹发射装置而言,哪怕只是短暂的延迟也可能造成严重后果。

Even a short delay matters when a mobile missile launcher can fire, relocate and disappear within minutes.

因此,让美国战机直接融入这一“感知—打击”闭环,便能大幅缩短从发现目标到实施打击所需的时间。美国的介入规模可有所限制,重点针对移动式导弹发射装置、无人机基地及其他时效性极强的目标,而无需展开大规模或无期限的军事行动。如此一来,华盛顿目前已在收集并分享的情报便能以更快速度、更高效率得到运用。

Placing American aircraft directly inside this sensor-to-shooter loop could therefore shorten the time between detecting and attacking a target. A limited American role could concentrate on mobile missile launchers, drone facilities and other time-sensitive assets rather than expand into a large or open-ended campaign. It would allow intelligence Washington is already collecting and sharing to be exploited with greater speed and effect.

由此可见,美国空军的直接参与虽大有裨益,却并非此次军事行动成功的必要条件。沙特阿拉伯拥有足以支援也门政府的战机、情报能力及各类资源,而也门军队也展现出独立开展地面作战的能力。不过,即便不承担战争主导责任,华盛顿仍可助力此次行动提速并提升成效。

Direct U.S. Air Force involvement would therefore be very helpful, but it is not critical to the campaign’s success. Saudi Arabia has the aircraft, intelligence capabilities and resources necessary to support the Yemeni government, while Yemeni troops are proving capable of conducting the ground fighting themselves. Washington, however, could make the campaign faster and more effective without assuming responsibility for the war.

分析人士指出,伊朗支持的胡塞武装对红海构成的威胁或促使美国调整相关政策。这一区别至关重要:美国提供支援的理由不应是“沙特与也门若无援助便无法取胜”,而应基于“美国自身有明确利益促使这两国取得成功”这一事实。

IRAN-BACKED HOUTHI THREAT IN RED SEA COULD LEAD TO MAJOR US POLICY SHIFT, ANALYSTS SAY This distinction matters. The case for American support should not rest on the claim that Saudi Arabia and Yemen cannot succeed without it. It should rest on the fact that the United States has a clear interest in helping them succeed.

地理因素使得也门问题不容忽视。胡塞武装已巩固了其在红海沿岸及曼德海峡一带的势力范围,而曼德海峡堪称全球最重要的海上要道之一。该武装有能力威胁沙特的航运安全,其影响范围远不止也门。全球约22%的海运集装箱贸易需经由红海。一旦这条航线受阻,船只便不得不绕行非洲,导致航程延长,运费与保险成本随之上升。

Geography makes Yemen difficult to ignore. The Houthis have strengthened their position along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. Their ability to threaten Saudi shipping has consequences far beyond Yemen. Roughly 22 percent of global seaborne container trade passes through the Red Sea. When the route is disrupted, ships must travel around Africa, lengthening journeys and raising freight and insurance costs.

一位前美国国防部官员警告称,胡塞武装在控制住红海这一“关键通道”后,正逐步进入美国的“打击名单”。另一个令人担忧的趋势是,胡塞武装正与索马里的“青年党”加强联系。“青年党”是基地组织在东非的重要分支,财力雄厚。美国官员已发出警告,称两组织间可能存在武器转让、无人机与爆炸物使用培训以及战术协作等情况。这预示着一个武装网络可能同时在亚丁湾两岸活动。目前其攻击目标虽为沙特及也门政府,但谁也无法保证其未来行动方向不会发生变化。

HOUTHIS ENTER US 'KILL BOX' AFTER SEIZING RED SEA 'CORK,' FORMER PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS There is also another worrying development. The Houthis are building ties with al-Shabaab in Somalia, al Qaeda’s wealthy East African affiliate. American officials have warned of weapons transfers, training in drones and explosives, and tactical coordination between the groups. This raises the prospect of a militant network operating on both sides of the Gulf of Aden. Its targets may be Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government today, but there is no reason to assume that its priorities will remain unchanged.

能源安全问题更让这一局势变得至关重要。沙特主要通过霍尔木兹海峡出口石油,但其东西输油管道也能将原油从境内输送至红海沿岸的延布港,作为霍尔木兹海峡受阻时的替代通道。然而,若胡塞武装也能对红海构成威胁,这条管道的战略价值便会大幅降低。

Energy security makes the issue even more consequential. Saudi Arabia exports oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but its East-West Pipeline also carries crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline provides an alternative route when Hormuz becomes dangerous. Its strategic value declines sharply if the Houthis can threaten the Red Sea simultaneously.

伊朗及其盟友因此有可能在两个关键要道同时施加压力:一处是霍尔木兹海峡附近的伊朗,另一处则是曼德海峡附近的胡塞武装。这已不再仅仅是沙特或也门的问题。中国高度依赖海湾地区的能源供应,欧洲则依赖红海与苏伊士运河构成的贸易体系;即便美国自身能源产量可观,其消费者也仍无法摆脱全球油价波动的影响。

OIL SQUEEZE TIGHTENS AS IRAN-BACKED ATTACKS CRIPPLE HORMUZ ESCAPE ROUTES Iran and its allies could therefore apply pressure at two critical chokepoints: Tehran around Hormuz and the Houthis around the Bab el-Mandeb. This is not merely a Saudi or Yemeni problem. China depends heavily on Gulf energy flows, Europe relies on the Red Sea and Suez trading system, and American energy production does not insulate American consumers from global oil prices.

当前的战事也暴露出2018年在荷台达所犯下的严重错误。当时,得到沙特和阿联酋支持的也门政府军推进至该城郊外,对胡塞武装控制的主要红海港口形成了巨大压力。西方各国政府担心,港口周边的战斗会中断食品、燃料及药品的供应。这些担忧不无道理,但当时采取的解决方案在战略层面却造成了灾难性后果。

The current fighting also exposes the magnitude of the mistake made at Hodeidah in 2018. Saudi- and Emirati-backed Yemeni forces had advanced to the outskirts of the city and placed the Houthis’ principal Red Sea port under severe pressure. Western governments feared that fighting around the port would interrupt supplies of food, fuel and medicine. Those concerns were legitimate, but the solution imposed was strategically disastrous.

在西方的强烈施压下,军事进攻被迫中止。《斯德哥尔摩协议》规定停止交战并要求各方军队从荷台达撤出。然而,这一撤军计划并未按预期实施。胡塞武装依然掌控着港口,保住了其经济与军事生命线;此后数年里,他们进一步巩固了统治地位,强化了与伊朗的关系,还获得了愈发先进的导弹与无人机。

SAUDI FOREIGN MINISTER WARNS HOUTHI THREAT GOES GLOBAL AS TRUMP HOLDS FIRE Under intense Western pressure, the offensive was stopped. The Stockholm Agreement froze the fighting and called for forces to redeploy from Hodeidah. That withdrawal never occurred as intended. The Houthis retained the port, preserved their economic and military lifeline and used the following years to consolidate their rule, strengthen their relationship with Iran, and acquire increasingly sophisticated missiles and drones.

中止荷台达攻势是一个极其严重的错误。这一举措在胡塞武装最为脆弱的时刻挽救了他们,使得原本或许能被控制的也门叛乱演变为对沙特阿拉伯及国际航运构成威胁的战略性隐患。

Stopping the Hodeidah offensive was a grave mistake. It rescued the Houthis at a moment of vulnerability and transformed what might have been a containable Yemeni insurgency into a strategic threat to Saudi Arabia and international shipping.

这给我们的教训并非是要忽视人道主义关切,而是说明:在缺乏可强制执行的和平协议的情况下强行终止成功的军事行动并不能带来和平,只会让弱势一方得以喘息恢复。若停火协议未能摧毁侵略方的军事基础,或许能暂时缓解苦难,却最终会导致规模更大、危险性更高的战争爆发。

The lesson is not that humanitarian concerns should be ignored. It is that stopping a successful military campaign without an enforceable political settlement does not create peace. It allows the weaker party to recover. A ceasefire that preserves the aggressor’s military infrastructure may postpone suffering only to produce a larger and more dangerous war later.

这一错误绝不可重犯。目前,也门政府及其沙特盟友正处于有利态势,他们将借此机会将胡塞武装逐出曼德海峡,剥夺其威胁国际航运的能力,并持续施压以摧毁支撑其导弹与无人机作战体系的基础设施。

That mistake must not be repeated. The Yemeni government and its Saudi backers now have momentum. They will use it to push the Houthis away from the Bab el-Mandeb, deprive them of the ability to threaten international shipping and place sustained pressure on the infrastructure that enables their missile and drone campaign.

美国提供情报支持,并在必要时给予有限的空中援助,将大有裨益。也门政府已经证明:只要其军队团结一致、获得充足补给并得到沙特阿拉伯的持续支持,便能够取得胜利。华盛顿理应支持这一努力,因为最终结果关乎美国的国家利益。

American intelligence and, where appropriate, limited air support would be helpful. The Yemeni government is demonstrating that it can succeed when its forces are unified, supplied and backed consistently by Saudi Arabia. Washington should support that effort because the outcome affects American interests.

胡塞武装并非他国的问题。不过,他们也并非只有美军才能击败的威胁。当地武装力量正日益展现出抵御胡塞武装的能力;而美国适度施以空中支援,则能极大提升当地军队的战斗力。

The Houthis are not somebody else’s problem. Nor, however, are they a threat that only American forces can defeat. Local forces are increasingly demonstrating that they can confront them, while carefully applied U.S. air power would serve as a powerful force multiplier.