华盛顿州的民众尚未正式表态，但最新的民意调查揭示了他们可能实际会怎么说。
The people of Washington state haven't officially spoken yet, but new polling revealed what they might actually say.
11月3日选票上最具争议性的议题是第638号提案，该提案旨在禁止生理性别为男性的男孩在K-12阶段的体育比赛中与女孩同台竞技。周三公布的数据显示，该提案很有可能通过。
The hottest-button issue on the Nov. 3 ballot is Initiative 638, a measure that would ban biological boys from competing against girls in K-12 sports. And Wednesday, data suggested that it has a strong chance of passing.
该提案的发起组织“Let's Go Washington”公布了相关数据：在7500名可能投票的华盛顿州选民中，56%的人表示会投票支持第638号提案，24%反对，22%尚未决定。从政治倾向来看，73%的共和党受访者支持该提案，民主党支持率为48%，独立选民则为52%。
Let's Go Washington, the group behind the initiative, released numbers showing that 56% of 7,500 of likely Washington voters would vote "yes" on I-638, 24% would vote "no" and 22% were undecided. In terms of support by political affiliation, the poll showed that 73% of Republican respondents support the measure, along with 48% of Democrats and 52% of independents.
缅因州禁止男孩使用女生更衣室的投票提案面临被否决的风险 需要注意的是，此次调查并非独立进行，完整的方法论——包括误差范围——也尚未公开。但这些数据并未显示该提案在11月会陷入胶着，而更像是会取得压倒性胜利。
MAINE BALLOT INITIATIVE BARRING BOYS FROM USING GIRLS' LOCKER ROOMS IN DANGER OF BEING BLOCKED Keep in mind, this was not an independent poll, and the full methodology — including margin of error — has not been disclosed. But these data don't suggest a photo finish on the initiative come November so much as a rout.
“我们对结果并不意外，因为这正是我们在打电话、敲门以及参加活动与民众交流时听到的反馈，”“Let's Go Washington”的传播总监Hallie Herzberg告诉OutKick。“反对派的声音很大，他们试图恐吓和胁迫人们保持沉默，但我们看到并听到了许多支持我们的人说：‘够了，高中女生不是罪魁祸首。’目前，已有27个州制定了禁止生理性别为男性的男孩在K-12体育比赛中与女孩竞技的法律。但2024年，这27个州全部被唐纳德·特朗普赢得，而这些法律也无一是由选民直接推动实施的。”
"We're not surprised by the results, because it's exactly what we've been hearing from people when we're making calls, knocking on doors and talking to people at events," Let's Go Washington communications director Hallie Herzberg told OutKick. "The opposition is loud and they're intimidating and they're trying to bully people into being quiet, but we've seen and heard from people standing with us saying "enough is enough, high school girls are not the villains." As it stands, 27 states have laws prohibiting biological males from competing against girls in K-12 sports. But 27 were won by Donald Trump in 2024, and none of those laws were enacted by voters.
因此，华盛顿州不仅可能成为首个在学校体育中强制实行性别分离的民主党执政州，也将成为首个由选民亲自推动这项政策落地的州。
So not only could Washington become the first blue state with enforced gender separation in school sports, but also the first where voters themselves put that policy into place.
上周六，在华盛顿州温哥华市举行的一场支持I-638提案的集会上，这一议题成为了重点讨论内容。五位曾被迫与生理性别为男性的选手同场竞技或共用更衣室的女运动员在会上分享了自己的经历。其中一位提到，在她参加篮球赛前，有两个留着小胡子的男孩在女子更衣室的镜子前展示肌肉；另一位则讲述了自己因对一名18岁的男性对手说了句“你是个男人”，结果遭到华盛顿州高中体育管理机构WIAA以骚扰和欺凌为由展开调查的遭遇。
This was a point of emphasis at an I-638 rally in Vancouver, Wash., last Saturday, where five female athletes who had to compete against biological males and/or share a locker room with them shared their stories. One of them spoke about two mustached boys flexing in the mirror of the girls locker room before her basketball game, while another detailed how the WIAA — Washington's high school sports governing body — launched an investigation for harassment and bullying because she said "you're a man" to an 18-year-old male her team had to compete against.
《克雷格·卡顿秀》——直率、坦诚且不容错过的节目。即刻下载他的每日播客吧！
THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. DOWNLOAD HIS DAILY PODCAST NOW!
不过，发声讨论这些问题的并不只有华盛顿州的现任或前任居民，还有来自全国各地的女性。她们深知，如果I-638提案得以通过，很可能引发全国范围内的连锁反应。
But it wasn't just current or former Washingtonians speaking up on the issues — it was women from around the country. Because they know that I-638 passing could set off a chain reaction across the nation.
“如果我们能证明像华盛顿这样的州也有足够的常识来保护女童和女性，那么其他各州也能做到这一点，”学生运动员弗朗西斯·斯托特说道，“我认为我们需要明白，这样做是完全可行的。”反对该提案的人并非认为女童与男童同场竞技毫无问题，而是采用恐吓手段，声称I-638一旦实施，女童从幼儿园起就可能面临“生殖器检查”。
"If we can show that a state like Washington has enough common sense to stand up for the girls and women, then any other state can do so as well," said student-athlete Frances Staudt. "I think we need to know that it's possible to be done." Opponents of the initiative aren't arguing that girls competing against boys is perfectly fine. Instead, they're resorting to scare tactics — warning that I-638 could subject girls to "invasive genital inspections" as early as kindergarten.
然而提案文本中并未提及此类检查；正如“XX-XY Athletics”创始人詹妮弗·塞伊所指出的，全美27个强制实行性别隔离体育政策的州也均未实施此类检查。华盛顿州又怎会例外呢？
But the initiative contains no language regarding such inspections, and as XX-XY Athletics founder Jennifer Sey has pointed out, none of the 27 states with enforced gender separation in sports are performing these exams. Why would it be different in Washington?
华盛顿官员在女孩就涉嫌袭击事件向最高法院提起上诉后，拒绝在跨性别运动员政策上让步。生物学男性占据体育中女性空间的问题在常青州并非虚幻之事。去年，跨性别田径运动员维罗妮卡·加西亚赢得了华盛顿州400米冠军。上周，OutKick报道称，华盛顿一个家庭在女儿去年据称遭到一名跨性别运动员袭击后，请求最高法院发布禁令。
WASHINGTON OFFICIALS WON'T BUDGE ON TRANS ATHLETE POLICY AFTER GIRL FILES SCOTUS APPEAL FOR ALLEGED ASSAULT Biological males taking over girls' spaces in sports is no phantom issue in the Evergreen State. Last year, trans track athlete Veronica Garcia won the Washington state title in the 400 meters. Last week, OutKick reported that a Washington family requested a SCOTUS injunction after their daughter was allegedly assaulted by a trans athlete last year.
今年秋天，卡马斯高中的越野跑选手洛根·米哈伊洛夫在赛季中期从男子队——他在九月份的一场赛事中排名第76位——转到了女子队。他已经在一场对阵女子队的校队比赛中获胜。
And this fall, Camas High cross country runner Logan Mihailoff switched from the boys team — where he finished 76th in a September event — to the girls team midseason. He has already won a varsity meet against the girls.
这正是“让我们前进华盛顿”组织表示I-638号提案旨在防止的那类情况。正因如此，赫茨伯格提醒支持者们不要认为民调结果理所当然。
These are precisely the kinds of situations that Let's Go Washington says I-638 is intended to prevent. Which is why Herzberg cautioned supporters not to take the poll results for granted.
“这绝不是稳操胜券的事，”她说。“我们不觉得现在可以放松下来随波逐流。还有大量工作需要做。”不要低估这项法案的反对者能在选民心中植入恐惧的能力。那是他们的专长。但这份民调表明，华盛顿州人正在挺身对抗欺凌者。理智或许确实会占上风。
"It's not a shoo-in by any means," she said. "We don't feel like we can just relax now and ride the wave. There's still a ton of work that needs to be done." Don't underestimate the fear this bill's foes can instill in voters. It's what they specialize in. But this poll suggests Washingtonians are standing up to the bullies. Sanity may indeed prevail.