
几十年来,好莱坞一直警告我们:杀人机器人将在街头肆意横行,把人类化为灰烬。但这种情形仅仅是一个相当可怕故事的一方面。
For decades, Hollywood warned us about killer robots marching through the streets, reducing humanity to piles of ash. But that scenario represents only one side of the rather scary story.
另一种可能是:人类将始终牢牢掌控先进技术。这对许多人来说或许是更令人安心的前景,我猜是这样,但对我而言不是。这是因为人工智能时代可能催生一种高科技封建主义——人们只能租用基本工具的使用权,却永远无法真正拥有它们。
The alternative is that humans remain firmly in control of advanced technology. This is a more reassuring prospect for many, I imagine, but not for me. That’s because the age of AI risks creating a form of high-tech feudalism, in which people rent access to essential tools but never own them.
如果这听起来有些危言耸听,不妨看看2012年至2023年社交媒体的预演。美国疾病控制与预防中心的数据显示,在那十年里,青少年抑郁率出现急剧上升,这与算法的兴起惊人地吻合——那些似乎知道每个人一切的算法。2021年,Meta内部文件泄露表明,公司高管早已知道他们的设计选择正在损害年轻用户的心理健康。然而,工程师们仍然让参与度循环持续运转。
If that sounds alarmist, consider social media’s dry run from 2012 to 2023. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data revealed a sharp spike in teen depression during that decade, remarkably coinciding with the rise of algorithms that seemed to know everything about everyone. In 2021, internal documents leaked from Meta proved that company executives knew their design choices were harming the mental health of young users. Engineers kept the engagement loops running anyway.
原因很简单:用户注意力转化为广告收入,注意力越多,收入越高。整整一代人就这样用理智换取了点赞、点击和分享。
The reason was simple: User attention translates into ad revenue, and more attention means more money. An entire generation grew up trading its sanity for likes, clicks and shares.
情况很糟,但很可能会变得更糟。社交媒体只是劫持了我们的注意力。而人工智能正在夺走我们操作系统的其余部分。生成模型构建出合成现实和个性化伴侣,它们镜像着人类的情感。如今,一个青少年可以花费全部清醒时间与一个定制的对话机器人交谈——这个机器人记得ta的每一个秘密,并逐渐取代真实的人际互动。人工智能垄断了人类认知,影响着人们的思考和行为方式。用户甚至在完成最基本的任务时——比如发送邮件或给亲人发短信——也完全依赖于专有软件。
Things were bad, but they’re likely to get worse. Social media merely hijacked our attention. AI is coming for the rest of the operating system. Generative models construct synthetic realities and personalized companions that mirror human affection. Today, a teen can spend their entire waking hours talking to a custom conversational bot that remembers every secret and gradually replaces real human interaction. AI monopolizes human cognition and influences how people think and act. Users become entirely dependent on proprietary software for even the most basic tasks, including sending emails and texting a loved one.
随着机器变得越来越聪明,我们却变得越来越愚蠢。而制造这些机器的人,却从这种疯狂中获利丰厚。
As the machines get smarter, we get dumber. And the people building the machines profit handsomely from the madness.
OpenAI 现在价值 8520 亿美元。微软承诺投入超过 130 亿美元以获得其底层模型的商业使用权。Anthropic、Meta、Alphabet 和亚马逊每年在计算基础设施上投入数十亿美元,以维持市场主导地位。这些实体的首要目标是最大化股东价值,其他所有优先事项均居次位。提出合理担忧的员工常常被忽视或被辞退。华尔街要求指数级增长。高管们通过将用户锁定在具有成瘾性和剥削性的生态系统中来实现这种增长。
OpenAI is now worth $852 billion. Microsoft committed more than $13 billion to secure commercial access to its underlying models. Anthropic, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon spend tens of billions annually on computing infrastructure to maintain market domination. These entities operate to maximize shareholder value above all other priorities. Staff members who voice legitimate concerns are often ignored or shown the door. Wall Street demands exponential growth. Executives deliver that growth by locking users into addictive and exploitative ecosystems.
1998 年,在多年明知故犯地向青少年销售成瘾产品之后,主要烟草公司签署了《主和解协议》。2008 年,全球投资银行引发了按揭市场崩盘,并拿走了纳税人的救助资金,而数百万人失去了住房。历史表明,企业行为者始终如一地追求短期利润,同时将长期社会成本转嫁给公众。任何精神健全的人为何还会指望这种情况会改变?
In 1998, major tobacco companies signed the Master Settlement Agreement after decades of knowingly selling addictive products to teenagers. In 2008, global investment banks crashed the mortgage market and collected taxpayer bailouts while millions lost their homes. History shows a consistent pattern of corporate actors pursuing immediate profits while shifting long-term societal costs onto the public. Why would anyone of sound mind expect that to change?
科技高管们要求公众信任他们的内部伦理委员会,尽管业内许多人士对这项技术可能导致的后果深感担忧。这些人正是正在构建这些系统的人。他们明白,少数几家公司最终可能掌控能够完成人类目前所做工作很大比例的技术。如果这听起来像是夸张,那就考虑一下进步的速度。人工智能正在快速发展。在未来十年内,这些系统在几乎所有任务上超越人类的表现并非不可想象。
Tech executives ask the public to trust their internal ethics committees, even as many figures inside the industry voice deep concerns about where this technology could lead. These are the people building the systems themselves. They understand that a small number of companies could eventually control technologies capable of doing a vast share of the work humans do today. If that sounds like an exaggeration, consider the pace of progress. AI is advancing rapidly. It’s not unreasonable to imagine a future, perhaps within the next decade, when these systems outperform humans across virtually every task.
更糟的是,敢闯敢拼的小型创业公司的时代即将终结。构建强大AI系统的巨额成本形成了几乎无法逾越的进入壁垒。运行先进模型需要专门的数据中心,这些中心耗费数百兆瓦的电力和数十亿美元的硬件投入。一个在车库里运营的普通美国人根本没有机会。这种集中化的架构确保了一小群科技高管将对现代文明的数字基础设施拥有绝对控制权。每一次搜索和每一个自动化工作流都将经过四到五家巨型企业所拥有的服务器。
To compound matters, the days of the plucky little startup are coming to an end. The sheer cost of building powerful AI systems creates an almost insurmountable barrier to entry. Running an advanced model requires specialized data centers that consume hundreds of megawatts of power and billions of dollars in hardware. A normal American operating out of a garage doesn’t stand a chance. The centralized setup guarantees that a select group of tech executives will maintain absolute control over the digital infrastructure of modern civilization. Every search and every automated workflow will pass through servers owned by four or five mega-corporations.
这种对信息的垄断对社会产生了前所未有的影响力。"前所未有"这个词至关重要。将其与工业革命或互联网进行比较是毫无意义的。两者都没有将如此巨大的对人类知识和决策的权力集中在如此少数的私营公司手中。
That dominance over information creates an unprecedented source of influence on society. The word unprecedented matters. Comparisons to the Industrial Revolution or the internet are nonsensical. Neither put this much power over human knowledge and decision-making in the hands of so few private companies.
这种反乌托邦的场景不需要终结者,只需要顺从的消费者每月付费,让他们的朋友Claude告诉他们该说什么以及怎么说。
The dystopian scenario requires no Terminators, only compliant consumers paying monthly bills to let their friend Claude tell them what to say and how to say it.