唐纳德·特朗普在面临法律挫折和公众批评的情况下，仍在推进新的关税政策。此举引发了人们对价格上涨、贸易报复以及中期选举前政治反弹的担忧。
Donald Trump is pressing ahead with fresh tariffs despite legal setbacks and public criticism. The move has raised fears of higher prices, trade retaliation and a political backlash before the midterms.
尽管物价上涨、贸易专家的批评以及选民的不满，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普仍坚持其关税政策，他押注这种做法将在11月3日中期选举前在政治上奏效。
US President Donald Trump is sticking to his tariff policy despite higher prices, criticism from trade experts and discontent among voters, betting that the approach will work politically ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
这一赌注看来风险很大。最近的一项民意调查显示，大多数美国成年人不赞成他的贸易政策，超过64%的人认为他通过最新关税走得太远，这一比例较1月份的58%有所上升。
That bet appears risky. A recent poll found that most US adults disapprove of his trade policies, with more than 64 per cent saying he has gone too far with his latest tariffs, up from 58 per cent in January.
美国对大多数国家的商品征收了低个位数百分比的进口关税，尽管由于法律挫折和特朗普的多次调整，税率水平有所变化。去年最大的一轮关税中，特朗普实施了他所谓的“互惠”关税及其他税款，涉及数十个国家，他援引1977年的一项法律称，该法律允许他在经济紧急情况下无需国会批准即可采取行动。
The United States has imposed import duties on goods from most countries at rates in the low double digits, though the levels have shifted because of legal setbacks and Trump’s repeated changes. In the biggest round last year, Trump imposed what he called “reciprocal” tariffs and other duties on dozens of countries, citing a 1977 law that he said let him act without congressional approval during an economic emergency.
在最高法院于2月份推翻该法律后，特朗普转而依赖其他贸易法规。目前主要依据的是1974年《贸易法》第301条，该条款允许他对被认为实施不公平贸易做法的国家征收关税，例如未能正确执行禁止强迫劳动的禁令。新关税对60个经济体的进口商品税率在10%至12.5%之间，包括欧盟、印度、日本、加拿大和墨西哥。
After the Supreme Court struck that down in February, Trump turned to other trade laws. The main one now is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows him to impose tariffs on countries he believes are using unfair trade practices, such as failing to properly enforce a ban on forced labour. The new duties range from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent on imports from 60 economies, including the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico.
贸易专家表示，特朗普正在破坏一个相对开放的全球贸易体系，许多主流经济学家认为该体系通过支持增长、保持低价以及使美国企业在全球产业中更具竞争力，使美国受益。美国是仅次于中国的世界第二大出口国。去年其出口商品和服务总额达3.4万亿美元，远高于德国的2.3万亿美元。
Trade experts say Trump is disrupting a relatively open global trading system that many mainstream economists believe has benefited the US by supporting growth, keeping prices low and making American businesses more competitive in global industries. The US is the world’s second-largest exporter after China. It exported USD 3.4 trillion in goods and services last year, far ahead of Germany’s USD 2.3 trillion.
特朗普表示，外国出口商正在承担关税，但包括纽约联储和哈佛大学在内的研究发现，海外公司基本没有降价到足以抵消美国企业在边境支付的关税的程度。这些企业要么吸收额外成本，要么通过提高价格将成本转嫁给消费者。白宫表示，制造业繁荣已经展开，并指出数据显示，制造业岗位在去年下降后正在回升，与此同时，一些非住宅建筑行业的就业也在增加。“如今的工厂建设岗位意味着，一旦这些工厂投入运营，未来将带来更多制造业岗位，”白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯说。
Trump says foreign exporters are paying the tariffs, but studies, including from the New York Fed and Harvard, have found that overseas companies have largely not cut prices enough to offset the duties paid by US businesses at the border. Those businesses are either absorbing the extra costs or passing them on to consumers through higher prices. The White House says a factory boom is already under way and points to data showing that manufacturing jobs, after falling last year, are rising again, along with work in some non-residential construction trades. “Factory construction jobs of today mean more manufacturing jobs down the road once those factories come online,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said.
特朗普认为其他国家在占美国便宜的论点也存在矛盾证据。中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织后的四年里，近300万美国制造业岗位流失，加速了远离制造业的趋势。即使是全球贸易的坚定支持者也承认这种损害。许多美国公司发现，难以与中国倾销产品的浪潮竞争，而中国通过抑制消费来鼓励出口。
There is also mixed evidence behind Trump’s argument that other countries are taking advantage of the US. In the four years after China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, nearly 3 million US manufacturing jobs were lost, speeding up the shift away from factory work. Even strong supporters of global trade acknowledge that damage. Many US companies found it hard to compete with a wave of discounted products from China, which has suppressed consumption to encourage exports.
与此同时，一些国家确实对美国征收更高的关税，通过贬值货币使出口在美国市场更具竞争力，并通过补贴支持产业。但美国主要贸易伙伴之间的关税普遍较低，通常接近美国水平，甚至在某些情况下更低。根据布鲁塞尔智库布鲁盖尔的数据，在贸易战爆发前，美国对欧盟商品的平均关税率为1.47%，略高于欧盟对美国商品的平均关税率1.35%。据欧洲央行数据，约30%的欧洲进口来自美国拥有的公司。
At the same time, some countries do have higher tariffs than the US, weaken their currencies to make exports cheaper in the American market and support industries with subsidies. But tariffs among major US trading partners are generally low, often close to US levels and in some cases lower. Before the trade war, the US average tariff rate on goods from the European Union was 1.47 per cent, slightly above the EU’s average 1.35 per cent on American goods, according to Brussels think tank Bruegel. About 30 per cent of European imports come from US-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank.
在谈判于今夏破裂之前，美国与加拿大的贸易关系也类似。根据牛津经济研究院的数据，加拿大对美国进口商品的实际关税税率约为2.4%，低于美国对加拿大商品征收的5%关税的一半。目前，两国陷入以牙还牙的争端，双方相互提高关税，凸显了围绕特朗普贸易策略的政治、法律和经济压力。
Trade ties with Canada were also similar before talks broke down this summer. Canada’s effective tariff rate on US imports was about 2.4 per cent, less than half the 5 per cent that the US imposed on Canadian goods, according to Oxford Economics. The two countries are now locked in a tit-for-tat dispute, with both sides raising tariffs on each other, underlining the political, legal and economic pressures around Trump’s trade strategy.