
特朗普总统似乎已将民主党人变成了关税怀疑论者。这仅仅是党派间的反对吗?或许是。但民主党人不仅是在谈论其关税政策带来的成本,他们还在挑战总统实施这些关税时所动用的权力。这预示着美国贸易政治中可能出现更持久的重组,而重写相关法规有助于巩固这一趋势。
President Trump appears to have turned Democrats into tariff skeptics. Is this just partisan opposition? Perhaps. But Democrats are not just talking about the costs of his tariffs. They are also challenging the presidential powers used to impose them. That points to a potentially more durable realignment in U.S. trade politics, one that rewriting the statutes could help make stick.
在竞选活动中,民主党人很快指出,特朗普的关税提高了成本,损害了“负担能力”。这并不令人意外。大多数美国人都认同这一观点。美国外交关系协会与晨间咨询公司(Morning Consult)一月份进行的一项民意调查显示,超过65%的受访者认为关税导致日常商品变得更难以负担。
On the campaign trail, Democrats are quick to point out that Trump’s tariffs raise costs and undermine “affordability.”No surprise there. Most Americans agree with this view. A January Council on Foreign Relations-Morning Consult poll found that more than 65 percent of respondents believed tariffs made everyday goods less affordable.
但民主党人的批评正日益深入,他们不仅关注关税本身,还关注特朗普为维持这些关税而采取的“打地鼠”式策略。在最高法院驳回特朗普利用《国际紧急经济权力法》实施全面关税的做法后,政府转而寻求其他法规依据。
But Democrats increasingly take their critique a step further, looking past the tariffs themselves to Trump’s whack-a-mole strategy for preserving them. After the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs, the administration pivoted to other statutes.
然而,这一策略也受到了挑战。今年5月,国际贸易法院裁定,特朗普征收的10%关税超出了国会根据第122条所授予的权力,并驳回了政府试图将美国贸易逆差等同于该法规所设想的“大规模且严重”的国际收支问题的做法。该裁决在等待上诉期间已被暂缓执行。
But this strategy has also been challenged. In May, the Court of International Trade held that Trump’s 10 percent tariffs exceeded the authority Congress had delegated under Section 122, rejecting the administration’s effort to equate the U.S. trade deficit with the “large and serious” balance of payments problem envisioned by the statute. That decision has been stayed pending appeal.
特朗普依据第301条款实施的“强迫劳动”关税也正处于法律审查之中。国际贸易法院最近质疑政府是否在每个目标国家的行为与实施关税的法定依据之间建立了必要的关联。如果没有这种关联,第301条款就有可能演变成一种永久性的贸易战权力,而非国会所制定的那种有针对性的补救措施。
Trump’s Section 301 “forced labor” tariffs are also under legal review. The Court of International Trade recently questioned whether the government had established the necessary nexus between the conduct of each targeted country and the statutory basis for imposing tariffs. Without that nexus, Section 301 risks becoming a permanent trade war powers authority rather than the targeted remedy Congress enacted.
这些案件考验着国会授予行政部门的关税权力的边界。民主党人更进一步,质疑国会是否把这些边界划得太宽了。
These cases test the boundaries of the tariff powers Congress delegated to the executive. Democrats are going a step further, asking whether Congress drew those boundaries too broadly.
参议院财政委员会资深民主党议员、俄勒冈州参议员罗恩·怀登在7月给出了最宽泛的答案。他提出的《2026年国会贸易权力改革法案》将要求总统新征关税须经国会批准,设立两党联合的关税与贸易联合委员会来审查拟议行动,要求贸易协定须经国会批准,并加强国会对美国贸易代表办公室的监督。
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, gave the broadest answer in July. His Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026 would require congressional approval of new presidential tariffs, establish a bipartisan Joint Committee on Tariffs and Trade to review proposed actions, require congressional approval of trade agreements and increase congressional oversight of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
怀登明确将目标描述为扭转行政越权,让国会在贸易问题上“重新掌握方向盘”。9月,参议院民主党人提出了三项进一步推进这一方向的提案。
Wyden explicitly described the objective as reversing executive overreach and putting Congress “back in the driver’s seat” on trade. In September, Senate Democrats offered three proposals that push further in that direction.
内华达州参议员杰基·罗森将重点放在加拿大。她的决议针对特朗普援引1930年《关税法》第338条对加拿大商品征收关税的做法。决议认为,这些关税增加了美国消费者和企业的成本,扰乱了北美一体化供应链,并招致加拿大的报复。决议呼吁特朗普撤销这些关税。
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) focused on Canada. Her resolution targets Trump’s use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose tariffs on Canadian goods. It argues that the duties increase costs for American consumers and businesses, disrupt integrated North American supply chains and invite Canadian retaliation. It calls on Trump to rescind the tariffs.
罗森与纽约州参议员克尔斯滕·吉利布兰德、佛蒙特州参议员彼得·韦尔奇和明尼苏达州参议员艾米·克洛布彻通过他们的《糟糕协议法案》进一步扩展了这一立场。他们的法案不是逆转对加拿大的关税,而是废除第338条本身,使依据该条采取的总统行动归于无效,并退还已征收的关税。
Rosen and Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) expand upon this with their BAD DEAL Act. Rather than reversing the Canada tariffs, their bill would repeal Section 338 itself, nullify presidential actions taken under it and refund duties already collected.
参议院民主党领袖、纽约州参议员查克·舒默走得更远。他的《终结特朗普关税税法案》将终止本届政府依据第301条征收的强迫劳动关税,废除第122条和第338条,并自动连本带息退还已征收的关税。
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) went further still. His End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act would terminate the administration’s Section 301 forced labor tariffs, repeal Sections 122 and 338 and automatically refund duties with interest.
目前,这些提案只是政治信号。但政治信号往往会演变为政策议程。而这一议程给两党提出了不同的问题。
For now, these proposals are political markers. But political markers have a way of becoming policy agendas. And this agenda poses different questions for the two parties.
对于共和党人来说,他们愿意在多大程度上捍卫特朗普的关税制度?他们一直退守的论点是,关税提供了谈判筹码并保护了国内产业。但随着法院不断缩小行政权力,中间地带正在萎缩。共和党人可能必须在重写法规以保留总统自由裁量权,还是接受国会更大的作用之间做出选择。
For Republicans, how much of Trump’s tariff regime are they willing to defend? They’ve been falling back on the argument that tariffs provide negotiating leverage and protect domestic industries. But as courts narrow executive authorities, the middle ground shrinks. Republicans may have to choose between rewriting the statutes to preserve presidential discretion or accepting a larger congressional role.
国会共和党人中已出现不安的迹象,其中一些人反对特朗普的部分关税,或呼吁加强国会监督。菲尔·格拉姆(Phil Gramm)和唐纳德·布德罗(Donald Boudreaux)认为,在特朗普退出政治舞台后,共和党人甚至可能回归其对低关税和开放市场的传统偏好。
There are signs of unease among congressional Republicans, some of whom have opposed some Trump tariffs or called for more congressional oversight. After Trump exits the political stage, Phil Gramm and Donald Boudreaux argue Republicans may even revert to their traditional preference for lower tariffs and open markets.
民主党人也面临同样的问题。如果他们对特朗普关税的主要反对意见涉及总统的自由裁量权,那么收回国会权力或许就足够了。关税仍将是经济政策的工具,但国会将对其使用行使更大的控制权。法院的裁决将使这一选择变得难以回避。
Democrats face the same question. If their principal objection to Trump’s tariffs concerns presidential discretion, clawing back congressional authority may be enough. Tariffs would remain instruments of economic policy, but Congress would exercise much greater control over their use. Court rulings will make that choice harder to avoid.
但如果他们的批评在于关税会推高价格、增加投入成本并扰乱供应链,那么特朗普卸任后的挑战将是确定关税在何时仍然有用,以及如何在不重蹈民主党今天所警告的经济成本覆辙的情况下部署关税。
But if their critique is that tariffs raise prices, increase input costs and disrupt supply chains, the challenge after Trump will be to determine when tariffs remain useful and how to deploy them without reproducing the economic costs Democrats are warning about today.
特朗普搅乱了美国贸易政策的政治格局。问题在于,特朗普离任后,两党是否会回归原位。如果他们不这样做,特朗普在贸易方面最持久的遗产可能不是关税本身,而是它们所留下的党派重组。
Trump has scrambled the politics of U.S. trade policy. The question is whether the parties scramble back once Trump leaves office. If they don’t, Trump’s most enduring legacy on trade may be not the tariffs themselves, but the partisan realignment they leave behind.
马克·L·布施(Marc L. Busch)是乔治城大学沃尔什外交学院国际商业外交专业的卡尔·F·兰德格(Karl F. Landegger)教授。
Marc L. Busch is the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.