
海军舰艇常常被用作重大事件的隐喻。福雷斯特·舍曼号驱逐舰(USS Forrest Sherman)是二战后首批设计的驱逐舰之一,正是其中之一。舍曼号的主要武器是其三门速射炮——一门安装在船首前方,两门安装在船尾并面向船尾。因此,持怀疑态度的人曾声称,舍曼号是第一艘专门为逃跑而战而建造的军舰。上周发生的三件事进一步强化了这一隐喻,针对美国而言。
Naval ships are often metaphors for great events. The USS Forrest Sherman, one of the first post-World War II designed destroyers, is one of them. Sherman’s main armament is its three rapid-fire guns — one mounted forward on the bow and two in the stern facing the tail. Hence, cynics claimed Sherman was the first warship built to fight running away. Three events last week reinforced this metaphor for America.
首先,面对可能的伊朗威胁,12架美国B-1轰炸机被迅速从英国皇家空军在英格兰费尔福德基地调走, presumably 转移到更安全的地点。鉴于乌克兰出色的“蛛网行动”(Operation “Spider’s Web”)——该行动通过将无人机偷运进俄罗斯关键基地并摧毁了若干战略轰炸机——人们担心伊朗可能试图效仿此类袭击。在这种情况下,附近飞行的无人机四旋翼飞行器可能成为破坏的工具。
First, in the face of a possible Iranian threat, 12 U.S. B-1 bombers were quickly moved from the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force base at Fairford in England, presumably to a safer location. Given Ukraine’s brilliant Operation “Spider’s Web,” which launched drones smuggled into Russia at key bases, destroying several strategic bombers, the concern was that Iran might attempt to duplicate such an attack. In this case, drone quadcopters flown nearby could have been the agents of destruction.
但其他驻有美军的基地又如何呢?F-15“打击鹰”战斗机驻扎在英格兰萨福克郡的皇家空军拉肯希思基地。而在欧洲,美国海军驱逐舰的母港设在西班牙的罗塔,此外还有陆军和空军部队散布在整个大陆。虽然已采取行动以防御可能的袭击,但美军的广泛分布使得伊朗或任何恐怖组织拥有众多潜在目标。而在某些情况下,如9·11袭击那样,驻扎在美国境内的美军也可能成为潜在目标。
But what about other bases where U.S. forces are located? F-15 Strike Eagles are stationed in Suffolk, England at Royal Air Force Lakenheath. And in Europe, U.S. Navy destroyers are home ported in Rota, Spain, as well as army and air force units scattered throughout the continent. While actions have been taken to defend against possible attacks, American forces being widely distributed gives Iran or any terrorist group an array of potential targets. And under certain conditions, like the Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. forces stationed inside the U.S. could also be potential targets.
这些潜在危险既不应被夸大,也不应被忽视。第二件凸显美国脆弱性的事件是上周发布的一份令人震惊的国会研究服务报告,该报告详细披露了在“史诗之怒行动”(Operation Epic Fury)中迄今为止惊人地损失了81架美国飞机。损失的飞机包括12架F-15“打击鹰”战斗机、一架F-35、七架KC-135“同温层加油机”、一架E-3“哨兵”空中预警机以及50架无人机或其他无人驾驶飞机。这些损失的总成本估计高达33亿美元。
These potential dangers should not be exaggerated or ignored. The second event underscoring U.S. vulnerability was a stunning Congressional Research Service report released last week, detailing the surprising loss of 81 U.S. aircraft so far in Operation Epic Fury. Among the losses were 12 F-15 Strike Eagles, one F-35, seven KC-135 Stratotankers, one E-3 Sentry airborne warning aircraft and 50 drones or other unmanned aircraft. The total losses are estimated to cost up to $3.3 billion.
这还不包括迄今为止在行动中使用的所有弹药和武器的估计成本——380亿美元。战争从来都不便宜。第三件事是胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯利雅得的哈立德国王机场的袭击,导致机场运营暂时中断。国内航班的机场综合体在两天内被击中两次。12人遇难,约300人受伤。就在最新一轮袭击之前,据报道,特朗普总统正考虑让美国加入对胡塞武装的作战。
And that does not include the estimated $38 billion for all the munitions and weapons used so far in the operation. War is not cheap. The third event was the Houthi attacks against the King Khalid airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia that temporarily shut down operations. The airport complex for domestic flights was hit twice in two days. Twelve people were killed and around 300 were wounded. Before the latest strikes, President Trump was reportedly considering bringing the U.S. into the battle against the Houthis.
这三件事表明,基地和基础设施对远程攻击有多么脆弱,而乌克兰在“蛛网”行动中的突袭进一步凸显了这一点。此外,伊朗似乎在公然挑战特朗普的威胁——即在选举后对伊朗发动打击——正在加强对海湾能源设施的攻击。从更广泛的战略角度来看,美国似乎也在远离欧洲和北约。特朗普政府一直要求北约的欧洲成员国承担更大的防御责任。
These three events show how vulnerable bases and infrastructure can be to remote attacks, reinforced by Ukraine’s surprise attack in Spiderweb. Additionally, Iran has been intensifying attacks against Gulf energy facilities in apparent defiance of Trump’s threat to strike Iran after the election. In a broader strategic sense, the U.S. seems to also be running away from Europe and NATO. The Trump administration has demanded that European members of the alliance assume a greater burden for their defense.
当然,自联盟成立以来的所有美国总统都曾提出过类似要求。但没有哪位总统曾威胁或实际上将美军从欧洲撤出,以迫使盟友承担更多防御责任。美国国防部政策副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比将于下月在波兰举行关于北约未来的会议,据报道,英国、法国和波罗的海国家并未受邀参加。与此同时,五角大楼正在审视美国在欧洲的军力部署。
Of course, all presidents since the alliance was founded have made similar requests. But no president has threatened or actually removed American forces from Europe to compel allies to shoulder greater responsibility for their defense. U.S. Defense Policy Undersecretary Elbridge Colby will hold a meeting in Poland next month on NATO’s future, to which the United Kingdom, France and the Baltic States were reportedly not invited. Concurrently, the Pentagon is reviewing U.S. force posture in Europe.
随着旗帜和将军军官编制提出的20%削减计划,欧洲司令部是否可能被降级为三星指挥部?而且,在北约历史上首次也是唯一一次,欧洲的最高盟军司令是否可能不是美国人?如果这种情况真的发生,这将对北约构成战略性灾难。这将意味着美国领导力的丧失,而没有其他国家能够承担起取代的角色。
Along with the proposed 20 percent cut in flag and general officer billets, could the four-star European Command be downgraded to three? And for the first and only time in NATO’s history, could the alliance’s supreme allied commander in Europe be a non-American? If this were to occur, it would be strategically catastrophic for the alliance. It would signal the abdication of U.S. leadership, with no other country able to take on the replacement role.
同样糟糕的是,它将切断与美国核威慑的联系,因为欧洲的最高盟军司令官将不再隶属于美国的指挥链。这将为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京提供机会,扩大旨在破坏和分裂北约的“主动措施”攻击。乌克兰可能屈服于进一步的俄罗斯侵略。在特朗普政府内部,谁是主张对欧洲采取更均衡政策的倡导者?谁在反对那种看似单方面的将中国视为敌人而忽视俄罗斯的倾向?
Just as bad, it would cut the link with the U.S. nuclear deterrent, as Europe's supreme allied commander would no longer be in the U.S. chain of command. This would give Russian President Vladimir Putin the opportunity to expand the “active measure” attacks designed to disrupt and divide NATO. And Ukraine could succumb to further Russian aggression. Inside the Trump administration, who is the advocate for a more balanced policy toward Europe? Who is arguing against the seemingly one-sided tilt into making China the enemy while ignoring Russia?
如果有这样的人,那位倡导者正在等待时机。而过去75年来美国安全的基石可能被扔进历史的垃圾堆。哈兰·乌尔曼,一家私营公司的董事长,是“震慑与 awe” doctrine(震慑与威慑 doctrine)的主要作者。他的下一本书,与英国前国防参谋长大卫·理查兹元帅(The Lord David Richards)合著,书名为《谁思考得最好谁就获胜:决定性战略思维如何防止全球混乱》。
If there is one, that advocate is biding his or her time. And the bedrock for U.S. security for the last 75 years could be thrown on the dustbin of history. Harlan Ullman, chairman of a private company, was the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former United Kingdom chief of defense, is “Who Thinks Best Wins: How Decisive Strategic Thinking Will Prevent Global Chaos."