
民主党人可能正在发现,将某事描述为“被操纵”所蕴含的政治力量。
Democrats may be discovering the political power of calling something rigged.
随着新研究表明,将腐败与美国人的经济困境联系起来可以帮助民主党人冲刺到最后阶段,他们正在竞选活动的最后几周大力推行反腐败信息。
They’re leaning hard into anti-corruption messaging in the final weeks of the campaign as new research suggests that linking corruption to Americans’ economic struggles can boost Democrats into the home stretch.
根据蓝玫瑰研究公司(Blue Rose Research)和亲民主党的“赢得就业叙事行动”(Winning Jobs Narrative Action)上月进行的一项全国性调查——该调查由《政治》杂志(POLITICO)获得——民主党人将腐败与住房、医疗和生活成本挂钩的信息,使选民对民主党国会候选人的支持度提高了大约3个百分点。这些发现与民主党人谈论腐败方式的转变相一致,也有助于解释为何这一信息在竞选活动中迅速升温。
Messaging from Democrats that tied corruption to housing, health care and the cost of living increased voter support for Democratic congressional candidates by about 3 percentage points, according to a national survey last month conducted by Blue Rose Research and Democratic-aligned Winning Jobs Narrative Action, which was obtained by POLITICO The findings align with a shift in how Democrats are talking about corruption — and help explain why that message has exploded on the campaign trail. From Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia to James Talarico in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Democrats have zeroed in on a common argument: Washington is rigged to benefit the wealthy at the expense of everyday Americans.
从佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)到德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)和密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛耶德(Abdul El-Sayed),民主党人已经将注意力集中在一个共同的论点上:华盛顿正被操纵,以牺牲普通美国人的利益为代价来使富人受益。
“We have a corruption crisis in this country, and it is leading to an affordability crisis,” Iowa Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek said during his Senate debate against Rep. Ashley Hinson last week.
“我国存在腐败危机,这正导致可负担性危机,”爱荷华州民主党州众议员乔什·图雷克(Josh Turek)在上周与众议员阿什利·欣森(Ashley Hinson)的参议院辩论中表示。
It’s a message that is reverberating across campaigns.
这一信息正在各竞选活动中产生回响。在最近一次向国会山民主党团体发表的演讲中,资深民主党策划人杰西·弗格森(Jesse Ferguson)提供了一份简明的行动指南:“腐败是导致你成本高昂的原因,”根据《政治》杂志所查看的演讲内容所述。
In a recent presentation delivered to Democratic groups on Capitol Hill, longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson offered a succinct playbook: “Corruption is why your costs are high,” according to the presentation viewed by POLITICO. His presentation also encouraged Democrats to lead with the acknowledgement that costs are high and then go into corruption, acknowledge that it happens across parties and avoid making President Donald Trump the sole focus of their attacks.
他的演讲还鼓励民主党人首先承认成本高昂,然后再谈腐败,承认腐败存在于各党派之间,并避免将唐纳德·特朗普总统作为他们攻击的唯一焦点。“特朗普可以作为腐败导致成本上升的一个例子,而不是整个案例,”演讲中如此表示。
“Trump works as an example of corruption that raises costs, not as the whole case,” the presentation said. Since April, Democratic candidates and outside groups in House and Senate races have spent roughly $104 million on advertising mentioning corruption, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
自四月以来,民主党候选人及其在众议院和参议院选举中的外部组织在广告中提及腐败的支出约为1.04亿美元,广告追踪公司AdImpact称。与此同时,共和党人在同一时期的众议院和参议院竞选中花费了3600万美元。
Republicans, meanwhile, have spent $36 million across House and Senate campaigns over the same period. “It’s not just like, ‘oh, look at what’s happening with the ballroom,’ or ‘boy, Donald Trump’s made a lot of money on crypto,’” Democratic strategist Chris Meagher said.
民主党策略师克里斯·梅格尔(Chris Meagher)说:“这不仅仅是‘哦,看看舞厅发生了什么’或‘哎呀,唐纳德·特朗普在加密货币上赚了很多钱’。你必须能够把它与人们生活的影响联系起来。”长期担任民主党民调员的塞琳达·莱克(Celinda Lake)在谈及反腐信息时表示:“当一个局外人候选人将被操纵的经济与被操纵的政治体制联系起来时,这种叙事最为有效。”
"You have to be able to tie it to the impact on people’s lives." “The narrative works best when it’s an outsider candidate who is linking a rigged economy to a rigged political system,” longtime Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said of the anti-corruption messaging.
对抗腐败并非新鲜事。但在2024年后民主党寻找走出政治荒野之路时,他们开始将熟悉的攻击手段——反腐——转化为与选民经济痛苦相挂钩的更广泛信息。曾经主要针对特朗普的攻击,如今已演变为候选人用以解释美国人为何在经济上举步维艰的更宏大论点,可能为该党在十一月之后提供行动蓝图。
Running against corruption is not new. But as Democrats looked for a way out of the political wilderness after 2024, they began turning a familiar attack — anti-corruption — into a broader message tied to voters’ economic pain. What once was an attack largely focused on Trump has become a more expansive argument for candidates trying to connect it to why Americans are struggling financially, potentially providing a blueprint for the party beyond November.
民主党策略师弗格森(Ferguson)说:“民主党过去把腐败当作犯罪来谈论。现在腐败成为成本的解释。”
“Democrats used to talk about corruption as a crime. Now corruption is the explanation for costs,” Ferguson, the Democratic strategist, said.
在本轮选举周期中,围绕该议题及其宣传也日益突出——此时对埃普斯坦文件被压制的愤怒达到沸点,公众要求禁止国会议员进行股票交易的压力也在持续上升。
The issue — and messaging around it — is also coming to the fore in a cycle when anger over the suppression of Epstein files hit a fever pitch and public pressure to ban Congress from trading stocks continues to mount.
而且,不仅是蓝玫研究所(Blue Rose)的研究显示了该信息的潜在效力。
And it’s not just the research by Blue Rose that shows the potential potency of that message.
在另一项由POLITICO获得的民主党智囊团Navigator Research的最新调查中,绝大多数美国人——无论是民主党人还是共和党人——表示腐败正在推高他们的成本。该调查于8月进行,针对选民进行,结果显示多数人认为特朗普正在为华盛顿带来更多腐败,而非解决腐败问题,其中大约四分之一的共和党人持这一观点。
In another recent survey from the Democratic group Navigator Research obtained by POLITICO, the vast majority of Americans — both Democrats and Republicans — say corruption is driving up their costs. That same survey ofed voters, conducted in August, found majorities, including roughly a quarter of Republicans, say Trump is bringing more corruption to Washington than fixing it.
而来自非党派机构Center Square的“选民之声”民意调查的最新结果显示,该调查由Noble Predictive Insights本月进行,并首次与POLITICO分享,有10%的选民将政府腐败列为美国人面临的第二重要议题,与经济和就业并列,仅次于通胀和价格上涨。
And new results from the nonpartisan Center Square’s Voter Voice Poll, conducted this month by Noble Predictive Insights and shared first with POLITICO, show 10% of voters ranking government corruption as the second most important issue facing Americans, tied with the economy and jobs, and only behind inflation and price increases.
在某些情况下,民主党人已经从特朗普手中夺回了“操纵”一词——特朗普曾在未经证实的选举欺诈语境中使用该词——并将其转化为一种动员性的政治话题。这与2024年3月形成了背离:当时民主党曾批评时任众议员凯蒂·波特,指责她在加利福尼亚州初选失利后,称特殊利益集团花钱“操纵”了参议院选举。但如今,一些民主党人正在接受这种表述,作为对他们所认为的腐败体制进行抨击的方式。
In some instances, Democrats have wrested the word “rigged” away from Trump who has used it in the context of unproven election fraud and turned it into a mobilizing political talking point. That’s a departure from March 2024 when Democrats criticized then Rep. Katie Porter for accusing special interests of spending money to “rig” the California Senate race after she lost in the state’s primary. But now some Democrats are embracing that language as a way to rail against what they see as a corrupt system.
“他们正在操纵规则,以使其富裕捐助者和企业特殊利益集团受益,”前俄亥俄州民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗在向支持者发布的消息中宣布其竞选重返政坛的启动时如此说道。
“They’re rigging the rules to benefit their wealthy donors and corporate special interests,” former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown said in a message to supporters announcing the launch of his campaign to return to office.
但腐败问题在两党之间产生共鸣。接受POLITICO采访的共和党人表示,民主党并不垄断这一议题——全美各地的选民都对此感到愤怒。虽然民调显示,两大党派的选民都认为政府存在腐败,但共和党人指责民主党在该问题上缺乏可信度。
But the corruption resonates across parties. Republicans who spoke with POLITICO said Democrats do not own the issue — voters everywhere are animated by it. While polling shows that voters in both major parties believe the government is corrupt Republicans accuse Democrats of lacking credibility on the issue.
“美国人对民主党政客们肆意蔓延的自私腐败感到厌恶,这种腐败像疱疹一样蔓延开来,而现在他们突然改变了说法,因为这是个选举年,”全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉在一份声明中表示。“选民看穿了伪装,他们知道共和党人正在清理民主党领导人留下的烂摊子。”在参议院方面,全国共和党参议院委员会发言人伯纳黛特·布雷斯林向《政治》杂志指出了一项明尼苏达州的民意调查 — — 这是本轮参议院共和党人罕见的进攻机会 — — 该调查显示,责怪明尼苏达州民主党州长蒂姆·沃尔兹导致联邦资助的政府项目出现广泛欺诈的选民人数,与责怪罪犯的选民人数大致相当。
“Americans have been disgusted by the level of self-serving corruption that spread like herpes through the slimy politicians who run the Democrat Party, and now they’re suddenly changing their tune because it’s an election year,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement. “Voters see through the facade, and they know Republicans are cleaning up the rot left behind by Democrat leaders.”On the Senate side, National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Bernadette Breslin pointed POLITICO to a poll in Minnesota — a rare offensive opportunity for Senate Republicans this cycle — that shows there are just about as many voters who blame Democratic Gov. Tim Walz for widespread fraud of federally-funded government programs in the state as there are who blame the criminals.
沃尔兹的副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根正在参议院选举中对抗共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚,而在选举中,民主党执政下的腐败问题是共和党人的核心议题。
Walz’s lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, is running for Senate against Republican Michele Tafoya, and corruption under Democratic rule is a key theme for Republicans in the race.
“明尼苏达州绝大多数选民认为沃尔兹-弗拉纳根政府 — — 以及它所帮助和纵容的罪犯 — — 负责掠夺他们的辛苦纳税所得,”布雷斯林说。“他们将在今年11月投票支持米歇尔·塔福亚来纠正局面。”赢得就业叙事行动组织执行主任史蒂夫·皮尔斯表示,民主党在这个选举周期中关于腐败的最大转变之一,是他们正在远离一种主要根植于对民主规范担忧的信息,这种信息在过去的选举周期中一直难以打动选民。
“The overwhelming majority of Minnesotans blame the Walz-Flanagan administration — and the criminals it aided and abetted — for plundering their hard-earned taxpayer dollars,” Breslin said. “They’ll vote for Michele Tafoya to right the ship this November.”Steve Pierce, executive director at Winning Jobs Narrative Action, said one of the biggest shifts for Democrats this cycle on corruption has been a move away from a message largely rooted in concerns over democratic norms, which have struggled to break through in a way that moves voters in past cycles.
“你们看到的是,民主党人不是把腐败与民主联系起来,而是把腐败与可负担性联系起来,把它与选民最关心的问题联系起来,”皮尔斯说。“他们以一种与选民日常所思所想相关的方式来阐述腐败问题,使其对选民具有意义。”反腐败信息已经在全国范围内展开,并且作为对不同经济痛点不满的解释,包括电费上涨和地方数据中心项目。
“You’ve seen Democrats, rather than connecting corruption to democracy, connecting it to affordability, connecting it to the top concern that voters have,” said Pierce. “It’s connecting it in a way that’s meaningful to voters around the things that they are thinking about every day.”The anti-corruption message has played out across the country, and as an explanation for frustration against different economic pain points, including rising electric bills and local data center projects.
众议院多数党政治行动委员会(House Majority PAC)最近的一份关于数据中心的备忘录指出,“2026年选举周期的信息环境一直被成本主导,而围绕腐败的重要次要主题去年开始浮现。”该委员会的发言人CJ·沃恩克告诉《政治》杂志:“每一次民调和每一次焦点小组都显示,可负担性是选民的首要问题,他们特别指出腐败的政客是导致价格上涨的责任方。”
recent memo on data centers from House Majority PAC, the main super PAC working to elect House Democrats, noted the “message environment in the 2026 election cycle has been dominated by costs, with an important secondary theme around corruption that began to emerge last year.”The group’s spokesperson, CJ Warnke, told POLITICO that “every single poll and every single focus group shows affordability to be voters’ number one issue, and they specifically point to corrupt politicians as being responsible for driving up prices.”
下个月的中期选举将是检验民主党能否将这一信息转化为选票的最清晰试验。但民主党操作人员越来越认为,反腐败信息不仅仅是一种短期政治武器——只要他们在明年赢得控制权后,如果他们真的尝试去做点什么的话。
Next month’s midterms will offer the clearest test yet of whether Democrats can turn this message into votes. But Democratic operatives increasingly see anti-corruption messaging as more than just a short-term political weapon — as long as they try to do something about it if they win control next year.
“我认为,如果民主党人真的希望在2028年之前将此议题保持在议程上,我认为他们应该这样做,因为我认为这是他们一个非常有力的议题,他们也必须在行动上兑现它,”皮尔斯说。“他们必须能够站出来,展示他们正在努力尝试,”他说。
“I think the thing for Democrats, if they do want to keep it on the radar heading into 2028, and I think they should because I think it is a really potent issue for them, they are going to have to also deliver on it,” said Pierce. “They have to be able to show up to get caught trying,” he said.