字号·· | 护眼
国会山报

腐败未必是民主党所预期的制胜议题Corruption might not be the winning issue Democrats expect

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

《华盛顿邮报》-ABC新闻-Ipsos联合民调于10月18日公布的结果显示,66%的美国人认为特朗普总统“正在利用总统职权谋取私利”。此前,福克斯新闻的一项调查显示,88%的受访者对政府腐败极其或非常担忧,这一问题在包括通胀、油价和医疗保健在内的议题列表中排名首位。

The results of a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Oct. 18 show that 66 percent of the American people believe President Trump “is using the presidency to enrich himself.”This follows on the heels of a Fox News survey showing that 88 percent are extremely or very concerned about government corruption, topping a list of issues including inflation, gas prices and health care.

美国人表示,他们更信任民主党而非共和党来处理上述每一个问题,领先优势均为“两位数”。《华盛顿邮报》的民调还给特朗普及其政党带来了更多坏消息:认为总统正在利用职权谋取私利的自认共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士比例大幅上升。

Americans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle each of those issues by “double digits.”And the Post poll contained more bad news for Trump and his party: there has been a steep increase in the percentage of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who think the president is using his office to enrich himself.

乍一看,这些结果似乎为民主党在即将到来的中期选举中大获全胜奠定了基础,表明全国各地民主党人将华盛顿腐败作为竞选核心议题的策略是明智的。

At first glance, these results would seem to be teeing up a Democratic sweep in the upcoming midterm elections, suggesting the wisdom of the strategy pursued by Democrats across the country in making corruption in Washington a central part of their campaigns.

没有人比参议员乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)做得更好。在一次次公开露面中,他反复强调以下信息:“这是有史以来最腐败的政府,人尽皆知。当美国人付出更多却得到更少,当我们的保险费飞涨、医院削减服务,当美国军人在战斗中伤亡之际,第一家族(正)赚取数十亿美元。”但民主党人应当记住,纵观美国历史,将民众对某一政党腐败的感知转化为另一政党的选举优势,极少是易事。这是因为选民倾向于认为两个政党——乃至政治本身——都是腐败的。

None has done this better than Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). In appearance after appearance, he has hammered home the following message: “This is the most corrupt administration of all time, and everybody knows it. While Americans pay more and get less, while our insurance premiums skyrocket and hospitals close down services, while American service members are wounded and killed in action, the first family (is) raking in billions of dollars.”But Democrats should remember that throughout American history, it has seldom been easy to turn the perceived corruption of one party into an electoral advantage for the other. That is because voters tend to see both parties — and politics itself — as corrupt.

如果民主党想利用腐败议题获益,他们需要做的不仅仅是指责特朗普。他们需要提出一套打击腐败的方案,无论谁执政都适用。

If Democrats want to capitalize on the corruption issue, they need to do more than point the finger of blame at Trump. They need to offer a set of proposals to combat corruption, regardless of who is in office.

到目前为止,他们做了大量的相互指责,却几乎没有提出任何建议。

So far, they have done a lot of finger-pointing while offering few, if any, proposals.

民主党面临的部分问题在于,特朗普已深入人心地传递了这样一个信息:拜登政府(包括前总统及其儿子亨特)是美国历史上最腐败的政府。正如《华盛顿邮报》所指出的,早在2019年,特朗普就频繁指控称,拜登在担任副总统期间,曾介入阻止一名乌克兰检察官“调查乌克兰最大的私营天然气公司布里斯马,该公司于2014年将拜登的儿子亨特纳入董事会”。特朗普把亨特·拜登当作攻击拜登家族腐败的替罪羊,指控亨特从中国收取了数百万美元款项,以此向其父亲谋取好处。

Part of the problem that Democrats face is that Trump has driven home the message that the Biden administration, including the former president and his son, Hunter, was the most corrupt in American history. As The Washington Post notes, as far back as 2019, Trump was frequently making accusations that when Biden was vice president, he had intervened to stop a Ukrainian prosecutor from “investigating Ukraine’s largest private gas company, Burisma, which had added Biden’s son, Hunter, to its board in 2014.”Trump has used Hunter Biden as a whipping boy for his claims about the Biden family’s corruption, alleging that Hunter received millions in payments from China as a way to curry favor with his father.

总统也得到了国会盟友的协助。2023年,众议院监督委员会声称:“拜登家族及其关联人创建了20多家空壳公司,从中国和其他外国敛财超过2400万美元,确认有9名拜登家族成员参与或从商业骗局中获益,并证实乔·拜登至少与其家族的商业伙伴互动过二十多次。” 此类指控反复炒作,助长了公众“腐败人人都在搞”的情绪。这就是为什么早在20年前,约60%的美国公众就认为腐败遍布政府各处。从那时起,这种认知变得更加普遍。

The president has been aided by his allies in Congress as well. In 2023, the Oversight Committee of the House of Representatives claimed that “the Bidens and their associates created over 20 shell companies, raked in over $24 million [dollars] from China and other foreign countries, identified nine members of the Biden family who have participated or benefited from the business schemes, and confirmed that Joe Biden interacted with his family’s business associates at least two dozen times.”Such accusations, repeated over and over, foster public sentiment that, when it comes to corruption, “everybody does it.”That’s why, as far back as 20 years ago, around 60 percent of the American public believed that corruption was widespread throughout government. Since then, that belief has become even more widespread.

这个国家的大片公众似乎已经吸收了一位英国贵族、约翰·达尔伯格-阿克顿勋爵的教诲。他在1887年写信给圣公会主教曼德尔·克雷顿,信中说:“我不能接受你的教条,即我们要以一种有利的推定来评判教皇和国王,认为他们没有做错事,这与评判其他人不同。如果有任何推定的话,那应该是相反的,即针对权力持有者的推定,而且随着权力的增加而增加。”

Large swathes of the public in this country seemed to have imbibed the teachings of a British aristocrat, Lord John Dahlberg Acton, who in 1887 wrote to Mandell Creighton, an Anglican bishop, “I cannot accept your canon that we are to judge Pope and King, unlike other men, with a favorable presumption that they did no wrong. If there is any presumption, it is the other way against holders of power, increasing as the power increases.”

他补充道:“权力倾向于腐蚀人,绝对的权力绝对地腐蚀人。伟人几乎总是坏人。”如果所有伟人都是坏人,那么选民通常不利用手中的选票来惩罚他们认为腐败的领导人,也就不足为奇了。相反,他们听到的关于领导人腐败的消息越多,就越对这一事实感到无奈。

“Power,” he added, “tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men.”If all great men are bad men, then, it is not surprising that voters generally do not use their votes to punish leaders whom they believe are corrupt. Instead, the more they hear that leaders are corrupt, the more resigned they become to that fact.

今年3月,布伦南司法中心写道:“腐败最具破坏性的影响之一是它抑制了民主参与。一项又一项研究表明,当人们认为其政治体制腐败时,他们去投票的可能性显著降低。”

In March, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that “One of the most destructive effects of corruption is that it depresses democratic participation. Study after study demonstrates that people are significantly less likely to vote when they view their political system as corrupt.”

该中心继续指出:“这种政治参与度的降低,在原本表现出最强公民习惯的公民中最为明显:那些投票最坚持、获取政治信息最多、动员能力最强的人,在认为腐败普遍存在时,特别容易陷入无奈。”这并不是说民主党人应该在中期选举前的剩余天里停止谈论腐败。但当他们这样做时,需要意识到,公众对腐败的担忧本身,未必会直接转化为对民主党众议院和参议院候选人的选票。

“This reduced political engagement,” the center continues, “is most pronounced among citizens who otherwise exhibit the strongest civic habits: Those who vote most consistently, consume the most political information, and have the highest capacity to mobilize are especially vulnerable to resignation when they believe corruption is pervasive.”This is not to say that Democrats should stop talking about corruption in the remaining days before the midterm elections. But as they do so, they need to realize that public concern about corruption in itself may not readily translate into votes for Democratic candidates for the House and Senate.

奥斯汀·萨拉特是安默斯特学院威廉·纳尔逊·克伦威尔法学与政治学教授。

Austin Sarat is the William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science at Amherst College.

阅读媒体原文 ↗