
随着选举日的临近,各种引人注目的民意调查结果纷纷出炉。但作为一名长期从事政治腐败报道的记者,我对那些反映美国人对于华盛顿特区腐败现象态度的数据尤为感兴趣。简而言之:选民们对此非常担忧——而且这种担忧并非只是少数人的观点;在多项调查中,几乎所有受访者(约90%)都表示对腐败问题感到忧虑。
As Election Day closes in on us, a lot of fascinating poll results are flying around. But as a longtime political corruption reporter, I’ve found myself particularly intrigued by the numbers showing how Americans feel about the out-of-control graft in Washington, DC. To be brief: Voters are very concerned. And not just a bare majority. Nearly everyone is worried about corruption—roughly 90 percent of respondents in multiple surveys.
最近有很多新闻加剧了选民的焦虑情绪。例如,唐纳德·特朗普显然通过加密货币交易赚取了数亿美元,其中还包括将他旗下加密货币公司的部分股权卖给了阿拉伯联合酋长国的国家安全顾问(该顾问同时也是该国领导人的兄弟)。特朗普还向企业和寡头索要资金用于自己的私人建设项目,而他的成年子女也将自己的经济利益与美国的国家利益紧密地联系在了一起。
Plenty of news has been feeding voter anxieties lately. There’s the hundreds of millions of dollars Donald Trump has apparently earned in crypto deals, including selling a stake of his crypto firm to the national security adviser (and brother to the leader) of the United Arab Emirates. The president has solicited corporate and oligarch money for his pet building projects, and his adult children have mingled their own financial interests with America’s global priorities.
在特朗普的第一任总统任期内,政府道德专家就指出他的行为已经突破了历任总统从未越过的界限;到了现在,他们已经找不到其他词汇来形容这种腐败行为的“空前严重性”。那么,这些腐败问题真的会在投票时对选民的决策产生影响吗?简而言之:确实有可能。
During Trump’s first administration, government ethics experts explained how he was crossing lines no president had ever before crossed. This term, they’ve run out of synonyms for “unprecedented.”The big question is: Will it actually matter in the voting booth? And, to be brief again: It actually might. The reason for skepticism is simple.
人们持怀疑态度的原因很简单:几十年来,无论属于哪个政治派别的美国人都在抱怨“腐败”以及金钱在政治中的作用,但这些抱怨很少转化为实际行动。毕竟,你上一次真正信任政客、或者认为他们会接受来自不良来源的竞选资金,是什么时候呢?在大多数选举年份,选民们更关注的是经济问题或外交战争等议题。
For decades, Americans of all political stripes have complained about “corruption” or the role of money in politics, but it rarely translates to political action. After all, when was the last time you felt like you really trust politicians or that they taking campaign cash from the wrong people? In most election years, voters are simply more interested in issues like the economy or foreign wars.
那么,这次情况会有所不同吗?最近的研究表明,选民对腐败问题的担忧已经不再仅仅是与其他民生问题竞争选民的注意力;相反,他们开始将腐败视为自己所面临问题的一个核心组成部分。
So what might be different this time around? Recent research suggests that concerns over corruption are no longer simply competing for voter attention with bread-and-butter issues. Instead, voters have begun to see corruption as inextricably linked to the the problems they face.
CNN 本周报道称,在最近一次中西部共和党选民焦点小组中,参与者表达了对高油价的担忧——这并不令人意外。但当被问及归咎于谁时,选民的回答却令人惊讶:“腐败政客”和“亿万富翁”。据称,这些回答让民调人员感到震惊,毕竟这是特朗普在 2024 年赢下的地区。那次焦点小组并非孤例。
CNN reported this week that in a recent GOP focus group in the Midwest, voters expressed concern over high gas prices—nothing surprising about that. But when asked who they blamed, the voters’ responses surprising: “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires.”Those responses, in a part of the country Trump won in 2024, apparently alarmed the pollsters. That focus group isn’t alone in its findings.
早在 5 月,布伦南中心的一项民调发现,92% 的受访者(涵盖所有政治立场)认为腐败是政治中的一个主要问题。这些受访者对“腐败”的定义相当宽泛且各异。但几乎所有人都同意,政客利用职权谋取私利,或将亿万富翁和大公司的利益置于选民利益之上,都属于腐败。正如共和党焦点小组的参与者一样,79% 的布伦南中心受访者认为,腐败妨碍了政府解决日常问题。
Back in May, a Brennan Center poll found 92 percent people, of all political affiliations, believe corruption is a major problem in politics. Those respondents had pretty broad and varying definitions of what “corruption” means. But almost everyone agreed that politicians using their offices for personal gain, or putting the interests of billionaires and big corporations over the interests of voters, qualified. And, just like the participants in the GOP focus group, 79 percent of the Brennan Center respondents felt that corruption was getting in the way of the government’s solving everyday problems.
9 月,盖洛普的一项民调得出了非常相似的结果——89% 的受访者认为腐败在政府中“普遍存在”。这些数字似乎与一项更新的盖洛普民调相吻合,后者显示公众对政府处理重大问题能力的信任已降至历史最低点。
In September, a Gallup poll found quite similar results—89 percent of respondents thought that corruption was “widespread” in the government. Those figures seem to match a more recent Gallup poll that shows the public’s trust in the government’s ability to handle big problems is at an all-time low.
雪上加霜的是,福克斯新闻最近的一项民调发现,88% 的美国人对腐败感到极度或非常担忧。值得注意的是,这一比例高于表示担忧通胀或油价、医疗保健或伊朗战争的美国人比例。
Piling on, a recent Fox News poll found that 88 percent of Americans are extremely or very concerned about corruption. Notably, that number is higher than the portion of Americans who said they were concerned about inflation or gas prices, healthcare or the war in Iran.
所有民调中潜藏的底层趋势是,人们担心政府腐败,国会尤其不受民众看好。选民似乎也不打算放过民主党。特朗普不遗余力——且常常不诚实地——将对手与腐败联系起来,他的努力往往奏效。布伦南中心的民调发现,大多数人认为最高法院和总统都存在腐败。
An underlying current in all the polling is that people are worried about corruption the government, with Congress being held in particularly low regard. And voters don’t seem to be inclined to let Democrats off the hook. Trump has worked tirelessly—and often dishonestly—to link his opponents to corruption, and his efforts have been often been successful. The Brennan Center poll found that most people thought the Supreme Court and the presidents were corrupt.
话虽如此,值得注意的是,所有这些情况都不寻常——这对民主党来说可能是个好兆头。对政府不满的选民不太可能支持现任者。
That said, what stands out is that all of this is unusual—which is potentially a good sign for Democrats. Voters who are mad at the government aren’t likely to favor the incumbents.