周日，华盛顿大部分时间都在下雨，飓风伊萨亚斯的残余系统席卷了美国东海岸。由于无法打高尔夫球，且被困在白宫内，特朗普总统花了部分早晨时间在社交媒体上宣传他集会的规模，并为克里斯托弗·哥伦布辩护。他还宣称，俄罗斯和乌克兰已同意相互停止对能源基础设施的打击。但事实上，他尚未先向乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基确认这一点——随后几小时，俄罗斯便对乌克兰发动了导弹和无人机袭击，击中了哈尔科夫的一座发电厂。
It rained most of Sunday in Washington, as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias washed over the East Coast. Unable to golf, and stuck inside the White House, President Trump spent part of his morning on social media touting the size of his rallies and defending Christopher Columbus. He also declared that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt strikes against each other’s energy infrastructures. Except that he hadn’t first confirmed that with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—and Russia spent the hours that followed bombarding Ukraine with missiles and drones, hitting a Kharkiv power plant.
两位特朗普的亲密人士告诉我们，他无法结束伊朗战争，既愤怒又莫名其妙地陷入瘫痪。其中一位顾问表示，特朗普“习惯于指指手指，让全世界——共和党人、世界领袖、媒体——肃然起敬，而伊朗不听话让他快要失去理智了。”伊朗已重新在霍尔木兹海峡威胁油轮，美国全国柴油平均价格已突破每加仑6美元大关，增加了全国公路卡车运输货物的成本。
Trump’s inability to bring the Iran war to a close has left him incensed but also oddly paralyzed, two people close to him told us. One of them, an adviser, said that Trump “is used to snapping his fingers and having the whole world—Republicans, world leaders, the media—come to attention, and he is losing his mind that Iran won’t listen.”Iran has resumed menacing oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the average price of diesel in the United States has crossed the $6-a-gallon mark, raising the cost of goods that travel the nation’s highways on trucks.
共和党人惊恐地认为，这些高昂的能源价格可能帮助民主党在仅剩三周的中期选举中夺取众议院和参议院的控制权。特朗普一直在寻找替罪羊，看来他已经把目标锁定在了乌克兰身上。尽管把全球油价上涨归咎于一个为自身生存而奋斗的欧洲国家似乎站不住脚，但特朗普似乎更倾向于这样做，而不是为他决定发动对伊朗的攻击承担责任。
Republicans are panicked that those high energy prices could help Democrats take control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections that are now only three weeks away. Trump has been searching for a scapegoat, and appears to have settled on Ukraine. Although blaming a European country that’s fighting for its existence for the rise in global oil prices might seem implausible, Trump seems to prefer that to accepting responsibility for his decision to attack Iran.
此外，他对乌克兰的一系列猛烈抨击，也与他长期对弗拉基米尔·普京的顺从行为一致。在罕见的例外情况下，特朗普在这场持续四年半的战争中一直站在莫斯科而非基辅一边。他希望乌克兰结束战斗——并施压该国接受泽连斯基认为不可接受的条款。
His broadsides against Ukraine, moreover, are consistent with his decade-long deference to Vladimir Putin. With rare exceptions, Trump has aligned with Moscow over Kyiv throughout the four-and-a-half-year war. He wants Ukraine to end the fighting—and has pressured the country to agree to terms that Zelensky finds unacceptable.
美国总统站在克里姆林宫一边本就是十月的惊人之举。但就在过去几天里，特朗普似乎已彻底转向反对乌克兰。他在周五宣布已与普京达成协议，进口俄罗斯柴油，这削弱了特朗普上月签署的针对莫斯科能源产业的新制裁法案。即使大约225万桶运往美国的柴油只能略微降低燃料成本，这笔交易也让特朗普能够宣称自己在帮助美国人的同时为俄罗斯提供了额外收入。
A U.S. president siding with the Kremlin is quite an October surprise. But in just the past few days, Trump appears to have fully turned against Ukraine. He announced on Friday that he had reached an agreement with Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, undercutting the new sanctions bill against Moscow’s energy industry that Trump signed into law last month. Even if the roughly 2.25 million barrels headed to the U.S. only marginally ease fuel costs, the deal allows Trump to tout efforts to help Americans while also providing Russia with additional revenue. (Another few million barrels are set to ship next month.)
（另有几百万桶计划于下月运出。）尽管欧洲盟友和国会山上一些共和党人反对，特朗普仍进一步加大对乌克兰的压力。他呼吁更换泽连斯基。其幕僚威胁说，除非基辅停止攻击俄罗斯柴油工厂，否则将暂停武器销售。特朗普阵营中有人建议美国更进一步，停止向基辅共享情报。正是在这种背景下，特朗普宣布了他所谓的能源停火。 一名乌克兰高级军官告诉我们，特朗普的言论“简直让人难以理解”。
Despite the opposition of European allies and some Republicans on Capitol Hill, Trump has followed up by placing even more pressure on Ukraine. He called for Zelensky to be replaced. His aides have threatened to withhold arms sales unless Kyiv stops targeting Russian diesel plants. Some in Trump’s orbit have suggested that the U.S. go further, and stop sharing intelligence with Kyiv. That was the context in which Trump announced his fictional energy cease-fire. A senior Ukrainian military officer told us that Trump’s statements are “simply beyond comprehension.”
“我们这里的情况已经非常困难，”该官员说，他和其他接受采访并要求匿名以讨论敏感问题的人一样表示。“但显然，底线之下还有更低的层次，情况总会更糟。”
“Things are already incredibly difficult for us here,” the officer said, speaking, like others who talked with us, on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “But apparently, there’s always another level below rock bottom. Things can always get worse.”
乌克兰近几个月已将打击范围扩大到俄罗斯境内深处，目标包括该国的大型炼油厂。这些攻击在俄罗斯引发能源危机，并在欧洲受到欢呼——但在白宫却不受欢迎。俄罗斯对此实施了柴油出口禁令，进一步加剧了本已因伊朗战争而紧张的全球柴油市场压力。
Ukraine has expanded its strikes deep into Russian territory in recent months, targeting the larger nation’s oil refineries. Those attacks sparked an energy crisis in Russia and were cheered across Europe—but not in the White House. Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in response, which added more pressure to global diesel markets already under strain from the war in Iran.
一名白宫官员告诉我们，泽连斯基向特朗普及其特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什内表示，如果俄罗斯人停止对乌克兰发电厂的攻击，他愿意停止攻击俄罗斯的炼油厂。但这位官员表示，特朗普并不认为这些打击是对等的——并要求乌克兰首先停止攻击俄罗斯炼油厂。泽连斯基拒绝了。
Zelensky told Trump and his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that he was willing to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if the Russians halted attacks on Ukrainian power plants, a White House official told us. But Trump doesn’t see the strikes as equivalent—and demanded that Ukraine first stop attacking Russian refineries, the official said. Zelensky refused.
“泽连斯基在夸大其词，惹恼了总统，”白宫官员说。“总统只要求一件事：停止袭击炼油厂。给他这个。”
“Zelensky is overplaying his hand and pissing the president off,” the White House official said. “The president is asking for one thing: stop hitting the refineries. Give him that.”
特朗普对乌克兰的下一步行动，像往常一样，是在与普京通话之后出现的。泽连斯基的助手们表示，普京在冲突的关键时刻左右了特朗普（甚至有一次，就在泽连斯基飞往华盛顿与特朗普会面，以争取获得新型美国武器的访问权时）。这一次，特朗普在周五与普京通话，为他迟到的生日祝福，尽管白宫内部有人劝阻此次通话，一位外部顾问告诉我们，他们认为此次通话不会有什么成果。
Trump’s next move against Ukraine came, as it so often does, after a phone call with Putin. Zelensky’s aides have expressed frustration that Putin has swayed Trump at crucial junctures in the conflict (once, even, while Zelensky was flying to Washington to meet with Trump in an effort to secure access to new U.S. weapons). This time, Trump spoke with Putin on Friday to wish him a belated birthday, even though some in the White House counseled against the call, one of the outside advisers told us, believing it would yield little.
在90分钟的通话中，特朗普告诉普京，他将解除对俄罗斯柴油出口的制裁。（基辅的一些人认为，这项协议早在之前就已达成，因为一艘载有俄罗斯石油和天然气的船只已经正在靠近美国。）这削弱了2022年实施的制裁，也削弱了特朗普上个月签署的更严厉的俄罗斯制裁法案；该法律以其一位支持者、已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的名字命名。
During the 90-minute conversation, Trump told Putin that he would lift the sanctions on Russian diesel exports. (Some in Kyiv believe that the deal was agreed to earlier, because a ship carrying Russian oil and gas is already approaching the U.S.) That undermined sanctions applied in 2022 and undercut the tougher Russian-sanctions bill that Trump signed last month; the law was named in honor of one of its champions, the late Senator Lindsey Graham.
两党议员对这一举动感到愤怒，一些共和党人谴责特朗普站在普京一边。四名共和党参议员——阿拉斯加州的丽莎·穆尔科斯基、缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯、北卡罗来纳州的汤姆·蒂利斯和犹他州的约翰·柯蒂斯——与一些民主党同僚一起，昨日发表声明称，解除制裁“直接违背该法律”，美国不应“对普京提供财政生命线，而俄罗斯仍在继续杀害乌克兰平民。”
A bipartisan group of lawmakers was infuriated by the move, and some Republicans denounced Trump for siding with Putin. Four GOP senators—Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and John Curtis of Utah—joined some of their Democratic colleagues to release a statement yesterday saying that lifting the sanctions “runs directly counter to that law” and that the U.S. should not provide “Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians.”
泽连斯基对此柴油协议感到措手不及，称其“不公平也不诚实。”他花了一年多时间试图修复与特朗普的关系，而这段关系在2025年2月达到低点，当时他们在椭圆形办公室发生了激烈争吵。此后，泽连斯基开始讨好美国。
Zelensky, who was blindsided by the diesel deal, deemed it “not fair and not honest.”He had spent more than a year trying to repair his relationship with Trump, which hit its nadir in February 2025 during a shouting match in the Oval Office. Since then, Zelensky has taken to flattering the U.S. president, and he has tried to capitalize on Trump’s occasional annoyance that Putin will not end the war.
总统，他曾试图利用特朗普对普京不愿结束战争的偶尔恼怒。特朗普与普京去年的阿拉斯加峰会几乎没有取得什么成果，只留下了一张两人的合影，目前挂在白宫的棕榈厅里。即便特朗普不会全力支持乌克兰，基辅的官员曾希望他不会积极损害他们的事业。这种希望可能正在破灭。
Trump and Putin’s Alaska summit last year yielded little more than a photo of the two that hangs in the Palm Room at the White House. Even if Trump wouldn’t fully support Ukraine, officials in Kyiv had hoped he would not actively hurt their cause. That hope may be fading.
据报道，库什纳、维特科夫与普京最近的会谈包括了一项承诺，即战争结束后俄罗斯可以与美国利益达成的大规模商业交易。长期以来，乌克兰官员一直认为，特朗普的外交政策侧重于开展商业交易——以及总统家人和朋友潜在的财富增值——而非捍卫民主、人权或领土完整。基辅的一些官员认为，尽管面临日益增多的无人机袭击和制裁压力，但为了给普京的战争机器提供动力而进行过重组的俄罗斯经济不会崩溃。
Recent talks between Kushner, Witkoff, and Putin have included the promise of massive business deals that Russia could strike with U.S. interests once the war concludes, according to reports. Ukrainian officials have long believed that Trump’s foreign policy focuses on opening up business deals—and the potential enrichment of the president’s family and friends—over the defense of democracy, human rights, or territorial sovereignty. Some officials in Kyiv believe that Russia’s economy, which has been remade to fuel Putin’s war machine, will not implode, despite the pressure of increased drone strikes and sanctions.
一位接近谈判进程的乌克兰官员告诉我们，这意味着“我们需要改变战略，不要再自欺欺人”，并需要在欧洲的帮助下找到结束战争的出路。这位官员表示，这可能需要重新强调谈判。
A Ukrainian official close to the negotiating process told us that means “we need to change our strategy, stop fooling ourselves” and find a way out of the war with Europe’s help. That, the official said, would likely require a new emphasis on negotiations.
克里姆林宫事后对记者表示，普京在与特朗普通话期间，拒绝承诺恢复和平谈判。然而，特朗普仍然将泽连斯基视为实现和平以及和平可能带来的商业交易的主要障碍，并呼吁乌克兰举行选举以选出新总统。（泽连斯基曾表示，如果普京同意停火60天，他将举行选举。）特朗普还将泽连斯基视为实现其梦寐以求却又难以企及的诺贝尔和平奖的绊脚石，他上周再次与该奖项擦肩而过。
During his call with Trump, Putin declined to commit to resuming peace talks, the Kremlin later told reporters. Yet Trump continues to view Zelensky as the primary impediment to peace—and the business deals it might bring—and he called for Ukraine to hold elections to select a new president. (Zelensky has said he will hold an election if Putin agrees to a 60-day cease-fire.) Trump also views Zelensky as an obstacle to his coveted, yet elusive, Nobel Peace Prize, for which he was passed over again last week.
一位欧洲高级官员告诉我们，如果袭击继续，美国已威胁停止通过欧洲向乌克兰出售武器，一些接近特朗普的人士则建议美国停止与乌克兰共享情报，就像2025年椭圆形办公室争吵后短暂做过的那样。
A senior European official told us that the U.S. has threatened to stop selling weapons to Ukraine via Europe if the strikes continue, and some close to Trump have suggested that the U.S. stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine, as it briefly did after the 2025 Oval Office argument.
乌克兰已经在为艰难的冬季做准备。莫斯科加大了对乌克兰城市的攻击力度。它增加了导弹库存，并首次投入使用了一种乌克兰防空系统很难拦截的喷气动力无人机。欧洲一直在努力填补特朗普的漠不关心以及美国深陷伊朗泥潭所留下的真空，但泽连斯基的助手们认为，普京将利用这个冬季猛烈轰炸他们的城市，然后在春季再次对基辅发起猛攻。如果乌克兰突然失去美国的情报或美国制造的武器，基辅可能会陷入自战争初期以来最脆弱的境地。
Ukraine was already bracing for a difficult winter. Moscow has escalated its attacks on Ukraine’s cities. It has grown its missile stockpiles and debuted a jet-powered drone that Ukrainian defenses have had difficulty stopping. Europe has tried to fill the gaps left by Trump’s indifference—and the U.S. being bogged down in Iran—but Zelensky’s aides believe that Putin will use the winter to pummel their cities before making another lunge at Kyiv in the spring. If, suddenly, Ukraine were left without U.S. intelligence or American-made weapons, Kyiv might be in its most vulnerable position since the first days of the war.
特朗普对普京的赞赏是过去十年中最持久的地缘政治副线之一。在2016年的大选中，他拒绝公开承认俄罗斯为帮助他当选所做出的努力；在第一任期赫尔辛基两国领导人峰会期间，他甚至臭名昭著地站在普京一边，而不是美国情报机构。最近，他一直避免让普京为帮助伊朗承担责任，尽管美国情报机构此前披露，莫斯科曾向德黑兰提供瞄准该地区美军资产的目标情报。
Trump’s admiration for Putin has been one of the most enduring geopolitical subplots of the past decade. He refused to publicly acknowledge Russia’s efforts to help elect him in 2016, infamously siding with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies during the leaders’ summit in Helsinki during his first term. More recently, he has refrained from holding Putin to account for helping Iran, even after American intelligence agencies revealed that Moscow gave Tehran targeting information to strike U.S. military assets in the region.
特朗普身边的一些最亲密外部顾问私下里纳闷，普京究竟做了什么，能如此彻底地迷住这位总统；尽管普京在入侵乌克兰期间遭遇了羞辱性的困境，但特朗普对这位俄罗斯领导人的尊重似乎有增无减。
Some of Trump’s closest outside advisers have privately wondered what Putin has done to so thoroughly enthrall the president; Trump’s respect for the Russian leader appears undiminished despite the humiliating struggles Putin has faced during the Ukraine invasion.
相反，特朗普采取了步骤来帮助普京摆脱其国际弃儿的地位。尽管普京已被国际刑事法院指控犯有战争罪，但特朗普去年夏天仍在安克雷奇欢迎了他。特朗普取消柴油制裁的举措可能会给俄罗斯步履蹒跚的经济注入活力。此外，他不顾本党一些人的反对，邀请普京参加今年冬天的二十国集团峰会——美国将在迈阿密郊外多拉的一处特朗普名下高尔夫球场主办此次峰会。
Instead, Trump has taken steps to help Putin shed his status as an international pariah. Though Putin has been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court, Trump welcomed him to Anchorage last summer. Trump’s move to undo the diesel sanctions could provide a boost to Russia’s faltering economy. And he has overruled the objections of some in his own party by inviting Putin to this winter’s G20 summit, which the United States is hosting at a Trump-owned golf course in Doral, just outside Miami.
如果普京接受邀请出席12月份的那场会议，这将是他自入侵乌克兰以来首次出席在西方国家举行的多边峰会。泽连斯基已表示他会出席，并希望与普京会面以谈判结束战争。其中一位顾问告诉我们，特朗普曾向顾问们提及，他希望双方带着准备达成协议的诚意来到多拉，以便他随后能主持一场缔跟和平的峰会。特朗普暗示，也许到那个时候，他最终就能赢得那个诺贝尔奖了。
If Putin accepts the invitation to that December meeting, it would be the first time he has attended a multilateral summit in a Western country since his invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky has said he’ll be there, and is hoping to meet with Putin to negotiate the end of the war. Trump has mentioned to advisers, one of them told us, that he’d like both sides to arrive to Doral ready to make a deal, so he can then preside over a peacemaking summit. Maybe then, Trump has suggested, he can finally win that Nobel.