放弃对乌克兰的支持并不能解决共和党在中期选举中的困境。在11月的中期选举中，共和党控制众议院和参议院的机会正在迅速丧失。由于燃料价格不断上涨成为选民最关心的问题，特朗普总统采取了这种颇具争议的“最后手段”——将责任推到乌克兰身上。
Abandoning Ukraine won’t fix Republicans’ midterm problems Control of the House and Senate is rapidly slipping out of grasp for the Republican Party in the November midterm elections. With rising fuel costs at the top of voters’ minds, President Trump has committed to a questionable last resort: scapegoating Ukraine.
大多数经济学家认为，与伊朗的战争才是导致能源价格飙升的主要原因。在竞争激烈的选举中，许多共和党候选人纷纷与总统立场相悖，呼吁结束这场战争，并指出这给消费者带来了巨大压力。然而，这并没有阻止政府官员将责任从自己身上推到乌克兰身上。
Most economists agree that the war with Iran is the primary culprit for skyrocketing energy prices. Republican candidates in competitive races have broken with the president to call for the war to end, citing consumer stress at the gas pump. However, that hasn’t stopped administration officials from attempting to shift blame from themselves to Ukraine.
财政部长斯科特·贝森特早在9月初就开始宣扬这种说法，将全球能源危机的根源归咎于乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施的攻击。上周，特朗普在社交媒体上再次重申了这一观点：“导致汽油价格上涨的原因不再是霍尔木兹海峡（因为目前每天都有大量石油出口），而是那些被乌克兰炸毁的俄罗斯炼油厂。”随后，特朗普宣布与俄罗斯达成一项协议，同意向美国和全球市场立即供应30万吨柴油——这个数量远远不足以满足美国交通运输行业的日常需求。
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent began promoting the narrative in early September, blaming Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure for the global energy shock. Last week, Trump repeated the same talking point on Truth Social: “What’s driving up gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine.”Trump then announced a deal with Russia that would include the immediate supply of 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets — a paltry figure that measures less than the daily consumption of the U.S. transport sector.
在两党人士的强烈反对和公众的强烈抗议下，这项原本被宣传为“为美国人民提供救济”的协议立刻失去了可信度；实际上，它更像是对俄罗斯的单方面让步，同时也是一种对乌克兰的恶意攻击，而非真正为受高油价影响的美国民众提供帮助的措施。
After immediate bipartisan backlash and public outcry, the agreement — framed as a relief package for the American people — was immediately tainted, appearing more like a unilateral concession to Russia and a petty swipe at Ukraine than an effort to support Americans hurt by rising prices.
这种策略从一开始就存在严重缺陷：无论是共和党人、民主党人还是无党派人士，都对俄罗斯持有极其负面的看法。在距离中期选举仅剩几周的时间里，为了降低能源价格而向弗拉基米尔·普京屈服，无疑是一种极其危险的选举策略。
The strategy was flawed on its face: Republicans, Democrats and independents hold overwhelmingly negative opinions of Russia. Bowing to Vladimir Putin in an attempt to lower energy prices just weeks before the midterms is a dangerous electoral exercise.
即便面临强烈反对，特朗普仍全力推进其对乌克兰政府远程打击俄罗斯能源目标的讨伐。特朗普通过“真实社交”平台呼吁将乌克兰总统泽连斯基免职，并宣布俄罗斯与乌克兰之间达成能源停火。
Even amid the backlash, Trump continued full throttle in his crusade against the Ukrainian government’s long-range strikes on Russian energy targets. Via Truth Social, Trump called for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be removed from office, and announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
问题何在？泽连斯基对该协议完全不知情。此外，停火宣布后几乎立即就被俄罗斯违反，俄方打击了乌克兰各地的能源基础设施。
The problem? Zelensky was completely unaware of the deal. Also, Russia violated the supposed ceasefire almost immediately after it was announced, hitting energy infrastructure across Ukraine.
如今，围绕美国是否会继续与乌克兰共享情报，困惑日益加剧。此前泽连斯基声称，他事先未收到美国关于上周俄罗斯袭击的情报预警，那次袭击造成数人死亡。
Confusion is now mounting as to whether or not the U.S. will continue intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, after Zelensky claimed he received no prior American intelligence warning of Russian strikes last week that killed several people.
近三分之二的选民不认可特朗普的外交政策处理方式，这一事件只会进一步削弱选民对他促成俄乌和平协议以及管理全球能源价格能力的信心。对于身处激烈选战的共和党候选人而言，策略并非赢得选民。
With nearly two-thirds of voters disapproving of Trump’s handling of foreign policy, this episode will only depress voter confidence in his pursuit to achieve a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, as well as his ability to manage global energy prices. For Republican candidates in competitive races, the strategy is not winning over voters.
过去一周的民调结果变得如此糟糕，以至于共和党人已开始对几周前还被视为竞争激烈的众议院选区进行优先级筛选。例如，摇摆州北卡罗来纳州的共和党提名人迈克尔·沃特利目前没有任何预留的电视广告时段。
Polling in the past week has become so dire that Republicans have begun triaging House races in seats that were considered competitive just weeks ago. The Republican nominee for swing-state North Carolina, for example, Michael Whatley, currently has zero reserved TV ad slots.
共和党团体被迫斥资数百万美元来保卫像南卡罗来纳州这样保守的州的席位。在南卡罗来纳州，共和党参议员提名人达琳·格雷厄姆因其支持对伊朗的战争而遭到众多攻击，尽管这场战争对燃油成本造成了影响。
Republican groups are being forced to spend millions to defend seats in states as conservative as South Carolina, where Republican Senate nominee Darline Graham has faced numerous attacks for her support of the war in Iran, despite its impact on fuel costs.
共和党人正处于生存模式，然而特朗普对乌克兰施加惩罚性措施的关注却毫不动摇。在加油泵前受苦的选民并不想要对泽连斯基的指手画脚——他们想要的是解脱。相反，特朗普却在为莫斯科寻求解脱。上周末，总统暂停了格雷厄姆为纪念其兄弟而提出的一系列对俄制裁。
Republicans are in survival mode, yet Trump’s focus on punitive measures against Ukraine are unwavering. Voters hurting at the pump are not seeking finger-wagging at Zelensky — they are seeking relief. Instead, Trump is pursuing relief for Moscow. Over the weekend, the president suspended a slew of sanctions on Russia put forward by Graham in honor of her brother.
随着选举仅剩数周而通胀上升，且在特朗普对基辅坚定不移的竞选攻势中能源价格下跌无望，美国民众获得缓解的前景依然遥遥无期。而在中期选举仅剩数周之际通胀上升，缓解前景依然遥遥无期。卡里姆·里法伊是一名政治顾问。
With inflation rising just weeks before the election and no sign of energy prices decreasing amid Trump’s unwavering campaign against Kyiv, relief for the American people is far away on the horizon. And with inflation rising just weeks before the midterms, relief is far away on the horizon. Kareem Rifai is a political consultant.