投资太空经济的规模有望在2026年首次突破1000亿美元大关，这一增长得益于SpaceX的大规模首次公开募股、国防支出以及太空基础设施建设。
Investment in the space economy is on track to exceed $100 billion for the first time ever in a given year in 2026, fueled by SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering, defense spending and space infrastructure.
这一预测源自投资公司Space Capital对第三季度支出的新分析。该报告不仅量化了投资规模的庞大，还指出，如今达到独角兽企业状态的太空公司数量比以往任何时候都更多。
The prediction stems from a new analysis of third quarter spending from Space Capital, an investment firm. On top of quantifying the sheer amount of investment, the report also notes that more space companies are reaching unicorn status than ever before.
“我们曾以为2021年是个疯狂的热门市场，”Space Capital首席执行官Chad Anderson表示，他指的是当时空白支票交易的狂潮。“与现在发生的事情相比，那不过是个小插曲。”为了解释这一激增，所有原因都指向SpaceX。
“We all thought that 2021 was this crazy hot market,” Chad Anderson, chief executive officer of Space Capital, said, referring to the blank-check deal frenzy of the time. “It looks like a blip compared to what’s happening now.”To explain the surge, all roads lead back to SpaceX.
Anderson表示，SpaceX今年夏天创纪录的首次公开募股可能促使投资者重新评估其他太空公司的价值，认为它们比之前想象的更具重要性。
Anderson said SpaceX’s record-setting IPO this summer may have led investors to revalue other space companies, viewing them as more essential than they might have before.
然而，SpaceX的影响远不止于其IPO。该公司计划在未来几年逐步淘汰其主力火箭猎鹰9号，这引发了火箭短缺的担忧，进而推动了对SpaceX替代方案的投资。
However, SpaceX is having an impact beyond its IPO. The company’s intention to sunset its Falcon 9 workhorse in the years ahead creates the threat of a rocket shortage that is fueling investments in SpaceX alternatives.
例如，发射初创公司Stoke Space Technologies, Inc.最近宣布，已筹集10亿美元用于开发其可重复使用Nova火箭的更大型变体。SpaceX的最大竞争对手Blue Origin LLC也在其26年历史中首次进行外部融资，融资额至少达到100亿美元。
Launch startup Stoke Space Technologies, Inc., for instance, recently announced that it had raised $1 billion to fuel development of a larger variant of its reusable Nova rocket. SpaceX’s largest rival, Blue Origin LLC, also raised at least $10 billion in its first external fundraising in the company’s 26-year history.
“这是过去十年里发射业界迎来的最好机遇，”Anderson表示。“正是这种稀缺性推动了市场采纳更多解决方案，从而催生了第二、第三和第四梯队的公司。”Space Capital的报告还指出，投资增长还得益于美国国防部对太空资产的高需求，以及各主权国家为自身卫星网络和其他太空基础设施投入资金，以推动经济增长。
“This is the best thing to happen to the launch industry in a decade,” Anderson said. “This is how the second, third and fourth position companies come about. The scarcity is driving the market to adopt additional solutions.”Space Capital’s report also notes that the investment is being bolstered by high demand for space assets from the US government’s defense department, as well as from sovereign nations looking for their own satellite networks and other space infrastructure to fuel economic growth.
然而，这种资金的自由流动对公司而言也存在风险。安德森表示，公司正在以往往不合理的极高估值筹集资金，尤其是当它们的商业模式围绕着一个不确定的变量构建时。例如，目前航天行业面临的一个主要风险是过度依赖SpaceX。
However, the free-flowing money does carry risk for companies. Firms are raising money at incredibly high valuations that don’t often add up, Anderson says, especially if they’ve built their business models around an uncertain variable. For instance, one big risk for the space industry now is being too reliant on SpaceX.
“如今有些公司正在获得融资，例如，它们需要SpaceX的星舰来建立业务并发射卫星，这构成了巨大风险，”安德森说。“我不知道他们何时才能让这种能力可用。”
“There are some companies getting funded today that, for example, require SpaceX’s Starship to build their business and launch their satellites, and that’s a big risk,” Anderson said. “I don’t know when they’re going to make that capability available.”