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诺贝尔奖得主迈克尔·伍德福德的研究如何影响中国央行政策How Nobel laureate Michael Woodford’s research shaped policy at China’s central bank

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在赢得今年诺贝尔经济学奖的二十年前,出生于美国的经济学家迈克尔·伍德福德曾通过其关于经济衰退的开创性模型,对中国人民银行的政策制定产生了重要影响。

Two decades before winning this year’s Nobel Prize in economics, US-born economist Michael Woodford was influential in shaping policy at the People’s Bank of China through his landmark models on economic downturns.

据当时国有媒体中国新闻社报道,2005年,伍德福德在北京一场论坛上发表题为“经济素养、央行沟通与宏观经济稳定”的演讲,一票难求。

In 2005, Woodford delivered a speech titled “Economic Literacy, Central Bank Communication, and Macroeconomic Stability” at a forum in Beijing, with tickets highly sought after, according to a report by state-owned China News Service at the time.

时任中国人民银行研究生部教授谢平主持了该场会议,经济管理部门官员及其他人士参加了会议。

Xie Ping, a professor at the Graduate School of the PBOC at that time, chaired the session, which was attended by economic-administration officials and other participants.

在北京演讲期间,国家广播电视台中国中央电视台报道称,伍德福德认为,美国和英国央行与公众沟通的范围和精细程度的提升,培育了经济市场中更具知识、信息更灵通的参与者。

At the time of the Beijing speech, state broadcaster China Central Television reported that Woodford believed greater scope and sophistication in US and UK central banks’ communications with the public had fostered more knowledgeable and well-informed participants in economic markets.

“中国要实现这一点,需要更强的经济研究和更好的经济培训,”他当时建议道。

“For China to achieve this, it needs stronger economic research and better economic training,” he suggested at the time.

八年后,中国人民银行在2013年第二季度《货币政策执行报告》中表明,它已注意到这一点。

Eight years later, in its second quarter 2013 Monetary Policy Implementation Report, the PBOC showed that it had taken note.

“正如哥伦比亚大学教授迈克尔·伍德福德所言,一旦利率触及下限且名义利率在较长时间内保持平稳,公众预期将实质性影响经济结果,使央行指引变得更为重要,”2013年报告写道。

“As Columbia University professor Michael Woodford put it, once rates hit the lower bound and nominal interest rates remain flat for an extended stretch, public expectations materially shape economic outcomes, making central bank guidance far more important,” according to the 2013 report.

2025年4月1日,北京,日落时分的中国人民银行总部。图片来源:VCG via Getty ImagesHeadquarters of the People’s Bank of China at sunset in Beijing, on April 1, 2025. Photo: VCG via Getty Images

周一,伍德福德与罗伯特·E·霍尔被授予诺贝尔经济学奖,以表彰他们展示了如何重构经济模型以重振稳定政策。

On Monday, Woodford and Robert E. Hall were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for demonstrating how economic models could be reconstructed to revitalise stabilisation policy.

这两位经济学家独立工作,研究了通胀、产出和消费等标准宏观经济变量之外的因素。瑞典皇家科学院在颁奖时表示,他们阐明了家庭和企业如何根据其对未来的预期来塑造经济。

Working independently, the two economists examined factors beyond standard macroeconomic variables such as inflation, output and consumption. They illustrated how households and businesses shape the economy according to their expectations of the future, said the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which presented the award.

他们的研究凸显了中央银行及政府清晰传达政策计划的重要性。该学术机构指出,此类信息能够在经济低迷时期“影响人们对未来的预期,推动经济朝着正确方向发展”。

Their research highlighted why clear communication of policy plans by central banks and governments matter. Such messaging could “influence this view of the future and move the economy in the right direction” during downturns, the academy said.

另一位诺贝尔奖得主霍尔是斯坦福大学教授。他与约翰·B·泰勒合著的教科书已被翻译成中文,长期以来被广泛用于中国各高校的本科及研究生经济学课程。

Hall, the other Nobel laureate, is a professor at Stanford University. His co-written textbook with John B. Taylor was translated into Chinese and has long been widely used in undergraduate and graduate economics courses across Chinese universities.

“近年来,中国人民银行明确了多项工作重点,包括完善政策利率框架、提升货币政策传导效率以及更好地稳定市场预期,”上海复旦大学金融研究中心主任孙立坚说道。

“The PBOC has in recent years laid out priorities to build out its policy-rate framework, improve monetary transmission efficiency and better anchor market expectations,” said Sun Lijian, director of Fudan University’s Financial Research Center in Shanghai.

“这些措施与新凯恩斯主义理论框架高度契合——而这正是这两位经济学家的研究成果。”在人工智能与数字经济备受瞩目的当下,今年的诺贝尔奖却颁给了两位传统的宏观经济理论家。孙立坚称,在当前面临严重通胀压力的背景下,今年的诺奖堪称一次“迟到的补课”。

“[Its] approaches align closely with the New Keynesian framework – a result of the two economists’ research.”In a year when artificial intelligence and the digital economy are dominating mainstream attention, the Nobel Prize was awarded to two “old-school” macroeconomic theorists. Sun called this year’s Nobel award a “long-overdue catch-up lesson” amid a “major inflation test”.

“这并非对创新成果的奖励。伍德福德的代表性著作出版至今已有23年,霍尔的相关研究则更是始于48年前,”他补充道,“这一奖项恰恰说明,在通胀高企且政策公信力面临质疑的当下,他们的理论依然具有极高的现实意义。”

“It’s not a reward for innovation. Woodford’s magnum opus was published 23 years ago, while for Hall, it has been 48 years,” he said. “The prize shows their work remains highly relevant for the current times, amid inflation and doubts over policy credibility.”