尽管“七巨头”股票创历史新高，但人工智能交易正显现出裂痕。对OpenAI收入增长的担忧打击了新云股票，而周二芯片因对中国竞争的担忧而出现抛售。
Despite the Magnificent Seven making record highs, the AI trade is showing signs of cracks. Concerns over OpenAI's revenue growth have hit neocloud stocks, and chips are selling off Tuesday on concerns about Chinese competition.
再加上美联储自2023年以来首次在9月加息，且预计将紧随其后再次加息，科技股占比高的指数面临诸多不利因素。
Add the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 in September, with another expected right behind it, and the tech-heavy index has plenty working against it.
这些压力是真实存在的，但期权交易者一直在为比纳斯达克近几周所呈现的更大幅度波动做准备。
Those pressures are real, but options traders have been bracing for bigger swings than the Nasdaq has delivered in recent weeks.
QQQ的隐含波动率指数（IVx），衡量期权交易者定价的波动幅度，周一收盘时接近20.7%。这使得纳斯达克100的波动率与小盘股持平。罗素2000通常比纳斯达克100具有更高的IVx，但目前QQQ和iShares罗素2000 ETF（IWM）基本持平，均在20.7%附近，而标普500ETF（SPY）则为15%。而且连续29个交易日，QQQ的IVx至少比该指数实际交付的波动率高出三个百分点。
QQQ's implied volatility index (IVx), a measure of how much movement options traders are pricing in, closed Monday near 20.7%. That puts Nasdaq-100 volatility on par with small caps. The Russell 2000 typically carries a higher IVx than the Nasdaq-100, but right now QQQ and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are essentially tied near 20.7%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) sits at 15%. And for 29 straight sessions, QQQ's IVx has sat at least three points above the volatility the index actually delivered.
换句话说，自9月初以来的每一天，期权定价的波动幅度都大于QQQ实际实现的波动幅度。本周的抛售尚未弥合这一差距。而这一差距正是机遇所在。
In other words, every day since the start of September, options have priced in bigger moves than QQQ ended up making. This week's selling has yet to close that gap. That gap is the opportunity.
当市场下跌但幅度小于期权预期时，在弱势中卖出溢价，交易者可以在已经下跌的市场中设定低于当前价格的行权价，同时收取较高的溢价。
When the market dips but moves less than options expect, selling premium into the weakness lets traders collect elevated prices while setting strikes below a market that's already come in.
基于周一的收盘价，我正在以大约1.81美元的价格卖出11月13日到期的720/710看跌价差，以获取净收益。
Based on Monday's close, I'm selling the November 13 720/710 put spread for a credit of roughly $1.81. This is a bullish-to-neutral trade, in line with how QQQ has traded this fall.
这是一笔从“看涨”转向“中性”的交易策略，与 QQQ 今年秋天的走势相符。即便经历了本周的下跌，自 9 月初以来 QQQ 的涨幅仍约为 5%，并在一周前创下了历史新高。该交易并不需要价格出现大幅反转才能达到预期效果，只需在 11 月 13 日之前控制住价格波动即可。只要 QQQ 在 11 月 13 日之前的价格保持在 720 美元以上，该交易就能实现最高利润 181 美元。
Even after this week's dip, QQQ is up about 5% since the start of September and hit a record just a week ago. The trade doesn't need the pullback to reverse, just to stay contained through November 13, or until it's managed. It reaches its maximum profit of $181 as long as QQQ stays above $720 through November 13. The $720 short put sits below the 50-day moving average, near $726, and the $710 long put sits just below the market's expected move, near $713.
选择 11 月 13 日作为交易截止日期，是为了避开英伟达（Nvidia）的财报发布时间（预计在 11 月 18 日左右）。由于 QQQ 的期权具有较高的流动性，因此可以选择以每周为周期来执行该交易策略。
With a breakeven of $718.19, about 3.7% below Monday's close, the trade leaves room for a further pullback through earnings season. The choice for the November 13 weekly was made to avoid Nvidia's earnings report, expected around November 18.
如果 QQQ 在到期日时的价格低于 710 美元，该交易的最大亏损为 819 美元（相当于初始投资额的约 4.8%）。虽然获得的收益相对较低，但这种策略具有较高的风险回报比：该交易的理论盈利概率为 70%，且有望获得最大利润的 50%。如果 QQQ 在到期日时的价格介于 710 美元至 720 美元之间，卖方（short put）将有权以 720 美元的价格买入 100 股股票。
QQQ's options are liquid enough that its weeklies can be considered for this trade. The maximum loss of $819 is reached if QQQ closes below $710, roughly 4.8% lower, by expiration. The credit is a bit light, but that's the trade-off for a wider cushion: the trade carries a 70% theoretical probability of profit and an 80% theoretical chance of collecting half the max profit. If QQQ finishes between $710 and $720 at expiration, the short put can be assigned and result in an obligation to buy 100 shares per spread at $720.
扣除已获得的收益后，该交易的实际成本为 718.19 美元，仍低于 QQQ 的历史最高价约 5.5%。QQQ 上次跌破 720 美元的日期是 9 月 17 日；因此建议在到期前平仓或调整交易策略，而非持有至结算日。
After the credit, the effective cost basis is $718.19, about 5.5% below the record high. QQQ last closed below $720 on September 17. Because of that exposure, consider closing or rolling the trade before expiration rather than holding it into settlement.
该交易面临的主要风险包括：周三发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据、本周发布的银行和台湾半导体公司的财报，以及 10 月 28 日美联储的货币政策决议。
The biggest risks are on the calendar: CPI on Wednesday, bank and Taiwan Semiconductor earnings this week, and Microsoft and Alphabet reporting alongside the Fed decision on Oct. 28.
纳斯达克指数目前处于压力之下，但其走势尚未超出期权市场的预期。该交易策略正是利用了这种市场疲软态势来获利，并为价格进一步下跌留下了空间。
The Nasdaq is under pressure, but it has yet to outrun what options are pricing. This trade sells into that weakness and leaves room for it to run a little further. Disclosures: Spina owns this trade.
信息披露： Spina 公司持有该交易头寸。本内容仅供参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，亦不构成购买任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。本内容属于一般性质，不反映任何个人的独特个人情况。上述内容可能不适合您的特定情况。在做出任何财务决策前，您应强烈考虑寻求您自己的财务或投资顾问的建议。
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