这是华尔街对美国特氟龙经济动摇的一周。一家顶级芯片制造商的首席执行官将一些人工智能投资者的行为比作赌博。有关中国在半导体领域进展的报道为芯片股的暴跌添柴加油。一份炙手可热的通胀报告让债券市场过山车般起伏，在此过程中，最突出的人工智能云计算公司之一在股票和债务市场双双崩盘。
It was the week Wall Street wavered on America’s Teflon economy. A top chipmaker’s chief executive likened some AI investors’ behavior to gambling. Reports of Chinese advances in semiconductors added fuel to a rout in chip stocks. A hot inflation report sent the bond market on a roller coaster and, along the way, one of the most prominent AI cloud companies had a meltdown in both the equity and debt markets.
周五广泛的科技股抛售成为市场自六月以来最糟糕一周的压轴戏，纳斯达克综合指数暴跌4.5%。
A broad tech selloff Friday punctuated the market’s worst week since June as the Nasdaq composite tumbled 4.5%.
笼罩这一切的是投资者对美国更高借贷成本可能减缓人工智能基础设施历史性投资的担忧——而这些投资已成为经济增长的全方位关键驱动力。这反过来又导致资金回流政府债券，终结了一轮曾将美国国债收益率推至二十多年来最高水平的惨烈抛售。
Hovering over all of it were fears among investors that the higher borrowing costs in the U.S. might slow the historic investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure that have become an all-important driver of economic growth. That, in turn, led to a flight back to government bonds, ending a bruising selloff that had driven Treasury yields to their highest levels in more than two decades.
随着债券反弹，根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收益率下降0.146个百分点至5.097%，这是自2月中旬伊朗战争爆发前以来的最大周度跌幅。
As bonds rallied, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 0.146 percentage point to 5.097%, according to Tradeweb—its biggest weekly decline since mid-February, before the start of the Iran war.
本周的事件强化了像波士顿资产管理公司GMO的资产配置联席负责人本·英克（Ben Inker）这样的投资者的论点——他一直是人工智能交易的公开看空者。
The week’s events bolstered the arguments of investors like Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at Boston-based money manager GMO, who has been a vocal bear of the AI trade.
他指出，此前铁路繁荣和 dot-com 股票狂热等大规模投资时期曾导致市场崩盘。在他看来，人工智能与那些狂热毫无二致。
He points to prior periods of heavy investment such as the railroad boom and mania around dot-com stocks, which led to market busts. To him, AI is no different from those frenzies.
“如果人工智能支出不继续增长，那对总需求来说就会很艰难，”英克说。“如果人工智能真的放缓，那对经济来说很可能是灾难性的。”一个最近的警告信号？人工智能公司的借贷成本上升，以及包括Anthropic和OpenAI在内的公司即将到来的股票发行洪流。“你必须更多地贿赂贷款人，才能让他们承担更多数据中心风险，”英克说。本周的担忧在市场的广泛角落中蔓延开来。
“If AI spending does not continue to grow, that gets tough for aggregate demand,” Inker said. “It’s likely that if AI really slows down, it will be really bad on the economy.”One recent warning sign? Rising borrowing costs for AI companies, along with a looming deluge in share issuance from companies including Anthropic and OpenAI. “You’ve got to bribe the lenders that much more to take more data center risk,” Inker said. The fears this week trickled through far-reaching corners of the market.
风险更高、负债更重的公司，如云计算新兴企业CoreWeave，承受了此次冲击的主要冲击，CoreWeave股价周五下跌12%，一周下跌25%。但抛售潮蔓延至更广泛的科技板块，导致从亚马逊公司和Alphabet这样的巨型超大规模云服务商到美光科技和超微半导体这样的高飞芯片股全部下跌。
Riskier and more heavily indebted companies such as the cloud computing upstart CoreWeave took the brunt of the blow, with CoreWeave shares sliding 12% on Friday and 25% for the week. But the selloff swept through the wider tech sector, bringing down everyone from giant hyperscalers Amazon.com and Alphabet to highflying chip stocks Micron and Advanced Micro Devices.
费城半导体指数包含英伟达和博通等人工智能权重股，周五下跌3.8%，创下自2008年以来最长的连跌纪录。戴尔科技本周暴跌22%，创下历史最差周表现。
The PHLX semiconductor index, packed with AI heavyweights like Nvidia and Broadcom, slid 3.8% on Friday to mark its longest losing streak since 2008. Dell Technologies plunged 22% this week, its worst weekly performance on record.
股票的下跌凸显了经济、市场以及相对较小的一群科技高飞股之间的紧密关联。据标普道琼斯指数公司称，标普500指数中大约有45家公司被认为对人工智能具有重大敞口。这些公司共同贡献了截至10月11日该指数14.1%涨幅的约39%。
The swoon in stocks highlighted the close linkages between the economy, markets and a relatively small group of technology highfliers. There are roughly 45 S&P 500 companies deemed as having material exposure to artificial intelligence. Together, those companies have made up around 39% of the index’s 14.1% return through Oct. 11, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“AI不仅是经济，而且已经成为股票市场和债券市场的主导力量，”巴克莱策略师在最近给客户的一份报告中写道。
“AI is not only the economy, but it has become the equity market and a dominant force in the bond market too,” Barclays strategists wrote in a recent note to clients.
标普500指数周五下跌1.1%，使其周跌幅达到1.9%。道琼斯工业平均指数对科技的敞口相对较低，下跌0.3%，即175点。蓝筹指数本周小幅上涨0.7%。
The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which carries relatively little exposure to tech, edged lower by 0.3%, or 175 points. The blue-chip index eked out a gain of 0.7% for the week.
许多人认为，曾经是对芯片股和超大规模云服务商的单一押注的人工智能交易正在分化。“制造人工智能硬件的‘铲子和镐’公司比那些依赖‘廉价借款扩张’的公司处境更好，”Landsberg Bennett私人财富管理公司首席投资官迈克尔·兰兹伯格表示。“这不是无风险的交易。肯定会有赢家和输家，”兰兹伯格说。
Many see the AI trade, once a monolithic bet on chip stocks and hyperscalers, splintering. “Picks-and-shovels” companies making AI hardware are better-positioned than those relying on “cheap borrowed money to expand,” said Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. “This is not a riskless trade. There’s definitely going to be winners and losers,” said Landsberg.
[音频] AI股票拖累纳斯达克 本周，与数据中心公司相关的债券交易出现警示信号，许多债券大幅下跌。跌势始于风险最高、负债最多的公司，如CoreWeave，但到周五时，即使是评级为投资级的数据中心债券也出现了类似情况。分析师表示，周四苹果和Meta宣布将合作开发在笔记本电脑上本地运行的新AI模型，而非在数据中心运行，这一消息加剧了担忧。
[audio] AI Stocks Drag Down the Nasdaq Warning signs started to flash in the trading of bonds tied to data-center companies this week, many of which fell sharply. The losses started with the riskiest and most indebted companies, like CoreWeave, but by Friday were showing up in data-center bonds with investment-grade ratings. Analysts said a Thursday announcement that Apple and Meta would team up on new AI models that run locally on a laptop, rather than at data centers, added to concerns.
数月来，美国国债收益率一直因通胀悲观和经济增长乐观的混合情绪而被推高。投资者认为，美联储将进一步加息以对抗通胀，但要严格抑制由AI建设推动且似乎不受借贷成本变化影响的经济增长，需要更高的利率。
For months, U.S. Treasury yields had been propelled higher by a mixture of pessimism about inflation and optimism about economic growth. Investors have thought that the Federal Reserve would raise rates further to fight inflation but that it would take much higher rates to seriously curb economic growth powered by an AI build-out seemingly unaffected by changes in borrowing costs.
投资者仍预期美联储将再次加息——如果不是本月，那么很快之后就会加息。
Investors still expect the Fed to raise rates again—if not this month, then soon thereafter.
美联储主席凯文·沃什周五早上在曼谷当地时间的公开露面中几乎未谈及其对利率的看法。投资者将其解读为：鉴于其他官员此前已暗示暂停加息的可能性，央行可能不会在10月27日至28日的会议上加息。但利率期货显示，交易员仍认为美联储在今年年底前加息的概率约为85%，而本周的高通胀数据仅使这一预期更加坚定。
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said little about his thinking on rates in a public appearance Friday morning local time in Bangkok. Investors took that to mean that the central bank likely won’t raise rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting given that other officials have previously signaled that a pause was likely. But interest-rate futures indicate that traders still see a roughly 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates by the end of the year, with this week’s hot inflation data only cementing those bets.
[视频] 为何国债收益率违背高于预期的通胀 数据显示，一些专注于科技领域的债务分析师仍持怀疑态度，认为即使面临更高的借贷成本，公司也不会因放缓对AI基础设施的投资而减少支出。
[video] Here’s Why Treasury Yields Have Defied Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Some debt analysts focused on the tech sector remain skeptical that companies will slow their investments in AI infrastructure just because they are facing higher borrowing costs.
他们表示，公司已经为他们计划在未来一年左右进行的大部分支出提供了资金。对人工智能算力的需求仍然非常高，即使是风险较高的公司也有巨大的动力继续投资，并通过任何可能的方式为其支出融资。
For one thing, they say, companies have already funded much of the spending that they plan to do over the next year or so. Demand for AI computing power also remains so high that even riskier companies have huge incentives to keep investing and finance their expenditures through whatever means possible.
“要真正制造放缓，你需要让需求放缓，”哥伦比亚Threadneedle投资公司的高级固定收益分析师Rich Gross说。他补充说，不过，利率上升也可能以其他方式抑制人工智能投资，例如通过损害消费者和总体放缓经济。
“In order to really create a slowdown, you need to have the demand slow down,” said Rich Gross, a senior fixed-income analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. He added, though, that rising rates could curb AI investment in other ways, such as by hurting consumers and generally slowing the economy.
请写信给Sam Goldfarb（sam.goldfarb@wsj.com）、Gunjan Banerji（gunjan.banerji@wsj.com）和Jack Pitcher（jack.pitcher@wsj.com）。
Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com, Gunjan Banerji at gunjan.banerji@wsj.com and Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com