
股票在上周初攀升至历史新高,但人工智能交易的波动性再次凸显,显示出投资者在这一市场中有多么善变。周四科技股表现糟糕,几乎让整个行情出现转折。随后周五出现温和的反弹,这足以让股票在一周内保持上涨。标普500指数录得每周涨幅1.2%,此前周二曾创下历史盘中新高,并首次收盘站上7800点。纳斯达克指数一周上涨0.6%。
Stocks climbed to fresh record highs early last week, but renewed volatility in the artificial intelligence trade showed just how fickle investors can be in this market. The wheels almost came off the bus after Thursday's terrible session for tech stocks. Then came Friday's modest bounce-back rally, which proved to be enough to keep stocks in the green for the week. The S & P 500 logged a weekly gain of 1.2%, after hitting an all-time intraday high Tuesday and closing above 7,800 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq added 0.6% for the week.
该科技权重指数周二也收盘创历史新高。为平衡我们的人工智能敞口,我们周四动用了更多可观的现金储备,增持了三只俱乐部成员股:金佰利、联邦快递和纽约梅隆银行。尽管油价和利率居高不下继续制造不确定性,我们仍选择性地以有吸引力的估值买入优质公司,而非一次性投入全部现金。以下是驱动上周市场行情的三个关键发展的深入分析。
The tech-heavy index also closed at a record on Tuesday. Looking to balance out our AI exposure, we put more of our sizable cash pile to work Thursday, adding to three Club names: Kimberly-Clark , FedEx and Bank of New York . While elevated oil prices and interest rates continue to create uncertainty, we're selectively buying quality companies at attractive valuations rather than deploying all our cash at once. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove last week's market action.
SpaceX 为投资者提供了更多看涨理由 SpaceX 上周为投资者带来了诸多振奋消息。《金融时报》周二晚间报道,埃隆·马斯克旗下的火箭和人工智能公司正寻求融资400亿美元,以购买更多英伟达芯片并扩展其人工智能计算业务,该业务向包括Anthropic和Alphabet旗下Google在内的客户出租算力。对Jim而言,这笔潜在的债务融资对双方都是利好,进一步印证了英伟达客户正在其人工智能投资上获得强劲回报。"
SpaceX gives investors more reasons to buy into the bull case SpaceX gave investors plenty to be excited about last week. The Financial Times reported late Tuesday that the Elon Musk rocket and AI company is looking to raise $40 billion to buy more Nvidia chips and expand its AI compute business, which rents capacity to customers including Anthropic and Alphabet's Google. For Jim, the potential debt raise is a win for both companies, reinforcing the idea that Nvidia customers are generating strong returns on their AI investments.
为什么不[这样做]?马斯克可以立即将这些芯片变现,"Jim表示。" SpaceX 有望以此节奏成为英伟达的最大客户。这对双方来说都是 fantastic news。"周四晚上,SpaceX 宣布收购一份全国性频谱组合,这可能使其星链服务成为传统美国无线运营商的更具竞争力的对手。
"Why not [do it]? Musk can immediately monetize these chips," Jim said. "SpaceX could end up being Nvidia's largest client at this pace. That's fantastic news for both sides." On Thursday evening, SpaceX announced a deal to acquire a nationwide spectrum portfolio , potentially positioning its Starlink service as a more formidable competitor to traditional U.S. wireless carriers.
频谱将有助于解决星链移动业务面临的关键技术难题,并最终使SpaceX能够将卫星覆盖与地面网络相结合。此消息在周五冲击了电信股,并为SpaceX在火箭、卫星和AI基础设施之外开辟了另一条潜在的增长途径。华尔街正在关注。高盛周二将SpaceX的目标价从220美元上调至230美元,强化了Jim的观点,即公司雄心勃勃的增长计划正变得更加具体。
The spectrum would help address a key technical hurdle in Starlink's mobile ambitions and eventually allow SpaceX to combine satellite coverage with a ground-based network. The news slammed telecom stocks Friday and opened another potential avenue for growth beyond rockets, satellites, and AI infrastructure for SpaceX. Wall Street is taking notice. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday raised its SpaceX price target to $230 from $220, reinforcing Jim's view that the company's ambitious growth plans are becoming more tangible .
巴克莱在周四晚间发布的一份报告中启动了对SpaceX的覆盖,写道,由于其在每个运营领域的完全主导地位,它是“太空领域值得拥有的名称”。尽管Jim仍认为SpaceX不适合纳入俱乐部投资组合,但他表示,这些发展表明马斯克的愿景可能比投资者预期的更快成为现实。OpenAI动摇了AI交易,并强化了一个关键的投资教训:AI股票在上周因《金融时报》的一份报告引发对OpenAI增长的质疑而剧烈波动。
Barclays initiated coverage of SpaceX in a note released late Thursday, writing that it's "the name to own in space due to its complete dominance of each vertical it operates in." While Jim still feels that SpaceX isn't appropriate for the Club portfolio, he said the developments suggest Musk's vision could become reality sooner than investors expected. OpenAI rattles the AI trade, and reinforces a key investing lesson AI stocks whipsawed last week after a Financial Times report raised questions about OpenAI's growth.
该报告指出,OpenAI截至9月底的年化收入大约比之前认为的水平低200亿美元,导致AI股票在周四大幅下跌。俱乐部持有的博通下跌4.4%(尽管周末收盘时上涨)。周四,AI交易以外的受挫股票因美国国债收益率回落而反弹。周五,AI交易反弹,因为彭博社援引消息人士的话称,OpenAI预计到年底的年化收入将至少达到700亿美元。
The report suggested OpenAI's annualized revenue at the end of September was roughly $20 billion below what was believed to be previously indicated levels, sending AI stocks sharply lower Thursday. Club holding Broadcom fell 4.4% (though ended the week higher). Beaten-down stocks outside the AI trade rallied Thursday as Treasury yields eased. The AI trade rebounded Friday after sources told Bloomberg that OpenAI expects annualized revenue of at least $70 billion by the end of the year.
这一逆转凸显了AI股票情绪变化之快,尽管对算力的底层需求依然强劲。Jim表示,真正的问题是人们把AI当作一种交易,而不是一种投资。对我们而言,更重要的教训是分散投资的重要性。“如果你只持有人工智能股票,[周四]将会是一场噩梦,”Jim说。
The reversal underscored how quickly sentiment toward AI stocks can shift, even as the underlying demand for computing power remains strong. Jim said the real problem is that people think of AI as a trade, not an investment. For us, the bigger lesson is the importance of diversification . "If you had nothing but artificial intelligence stocks, [Thursday] would've been a nightmare," Jim said.
集中投资组合的风险在于,巨额亏损可能导致投资者惊慌,抛售持仓并转向持有现金,从而可能错失随后的复苏。分散投资组合可以在特定投资主题受挫时帮助缓冲亏损,并使持续投资变得更容易。
The danger of a concentrated portfolio is that steep losses could prompt investors to panic, sell their holdings and retreat to cash, potentially missing a subsequent recovery . A diversified portfolio can help cushion losses when a particular investing theme gets hit and make it easier to stay invested.
星巴克的转型势头正在获得消费者认可。新的消费者数据提供了令人鼓舞的证据,表明星巴克的转型确实正在取得进展。根据HundredX的数据,在包括邓肯、荷兰兄弟和7 Brew在内的一连串连锁店中,星巴克是唯一一个在近几个月里客户增加支出意愿有所改善的品牌。来自29,000名客户的反馈还显示,星巴克在口味、速度、质量和品牌信任方面正在赶超竞争对手。
Starbucks' turnaround gains traction with consumers New consumer data offered encouraging evidence that the Starbucks turnaround is, indeed, taking hold. According to HundredX, Starbucks was the only chain among a group including Dunkin', Dutch Bros and 7 Brew to see improving customer intentions to spend more in recent months. Feedback from 29,000 customers also showed Starbucks gaining ground against competitors on taste, speed, quality, and brand trust.
这一发现尤为令人鼓舞,因为人们曾担心荷兰兄弟和7 Brew等快速增长的饮料连锁店可能威胁星巴克的长期增长。这些发现还表明,尽管消费者支出担忧给餐饮股带来压力,但星巴克的基本面业务正在改善。
The findings are particularly encouraging given concerns that fast-growing beverage chains such as Dutch Bros and 7 Brew could threaten Starbucks' long-term growth. They also suggest the underlying business is improving even as worries about consumer spending have pressured restaurant stocks.
然而,另一个发展却使情况变得复杂。《金融时报》报道称,星巴克一直在探索收购Chipotle的可能性,这引发了人们对潜在交易的猜测。这很有趣,因为Brian Niccol曾担任Chipotle首席执行官期间成功实现了转型,之后离职去星巴克担任首席执行官,试图复制这一奇迹。我们认为交易发生的可能性不大。
A separate development, however, has complicated things. The Financial Times reported that Starbucks has explored acquiring Chipotle , raising questions about a potential deal . This is interesting because Brian Niccol engineered a successful turnaround as CEO of Chipotle before he left to try to repeat that magic as CEO of Starbucks. We're not convinced a transaction will happen.
Jim周四表示,他在抛售之后曾考虑买入更多股份。周五的早间会议上,他表示,如果股价进一步下跌至90美元,同时出现星巴克不会追求收购Chipotle的迹象,这可能会呈现一个有吸引力的买入机会。他提醒成员们,由于他在周五的CNBC节目中讨论了此事,俱乐部目前被禁止进行交易。(吉姆·克莱默的慈善信托持有NVDA、AVGO、SBUX、KMB、FDX、BNY。)
Jim said Thursday he had considered buying more shares following the sell-off. During Friday's Morning Meeting , he said a further decline to $90, coupled with signs that Starbucks won't pursue Chipotle, could present an attractive buying opportunity. He reminded members that the Club was restricted from trading because he had discussed it on CNBC on Friday. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NVDA, AVGO, SBUX, KMB, FDX, BNY. )