
自苏丹武装部队(SAF)与快速支援部队(RSF)之间的战争爆发已超过三年,苏丹迫切需要一个政治解决方案。这场冲突造成了巨大的苦难,仅靠军事手段无法重建国家或使其分裂的社会重新统一。在这种情况下,任何旨在鼓励苏丹人之间对话的努力都值得认真考虑,而不应被直接否定。
More than three years into the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan is desperately in need of a political settlement. The fighting has caused immense suffering, and a military solution alone cannot rebuild the state or reunify its fractured society. Under such circumstances, any effort aimed at encouraging Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue deserves serious consideration rather than outright rejection.
八月,由阿赫法德大学(Ahfad University)校长卡西姆·巴德里(Qasim Badri)领导的19名苏丹公众人物组成的自任委员会发起了一项倡议,旨在为苏丹国内的全国对话奠定基础。该委员会成员此前曾会见苏丹武装部队总司令阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·布尔汉(Abdel Fattah al-Burhan)将军,并呼吁取消对反对派政治家的法律限制。
In August, a self-appointed committee of 19 Sudanese public figures, chaired by Ahfad University President Qasim Badri, launched an initiative to prepare the ground for national dialogue inside Sudan. Its members had earlier met SAF chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and called for legal restrictions on opposition politicians to be lifted.
随后,当局发布了一项法令,撤销对因对话而回国的海外苏丹人的某些政治动机指控,并为参与者提供临时法律保护。这些措施虽然有限,但具有重要意义,是建立信任的重要步骤。
The authorities subsequently issued a decree to drop certain politically motivated charges against Sudanese abroad returning for dialogue and grant participants temporary legal protections. These are limited but important confidence-building measures.
然而,该倡议仍面临强烈反对。由前总理阿卜杜拉·哈姆杜克(Abdalla Hamdok)领导的平民联盟“苏莫德”(Sumoud)以及包括快速支援部队在内的“泰西斯”(Ta’sis)联盟反对提出的内部对话方案。他们质疑该倡议的独立性,并警告称,在军队控制的地区举行谈判可能会使布尔汉的权威合法化,并巩固国家的分裂。这些担忧是合理的,值得被认真对待。
The initiative has nevertheless faced strong opposition. The civilian coalition Sumoud, led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and Ta’sis, an alliance that includes the RSF, have opposed the proposed internal dialogue. They question its independence and warn that holding talks in army-controlled areas could legitimise al-Burhan’s authority and entrench the country’s divisions. These concerns are legitimate and deserve serious attention.
但该委员会表示,它并不寻求谈判苏丹的未来或决定全国对话的议程。其角色是帮助创造条件,使苏丹的政治行为者能够直接相互交流。关键在于,它能否在不让冲突一方主导进程的情况下履行这一角色。在该倡议尚未有机会展示其价值之前就予以否定,将是过早的。
But the committee says it is not seeking to negotiate Sudan’s future or determine the agenda of a national dialogue. Its role is to help create the conditions for Sudanese political actors to engage one another directly. The question is whether it can fulfil that role without allowing one side of the conflict to dominate the process. Dismissing the initiative before it has had an opportunity to demonstrate its value would be premature.
该国的政治行为者和民间社会组织仍然深度分裂,先前的调解努力已经失败,战争持续使全面的政治参与变得日益困难。委员会的倡议旨在打破僵局。为政治对话做准备不应等到战斗停止之后。确保停火和保障人道主义准入是当务之急,但为政治对话做准备可以与实现这些目标的努力同步进行。
The country’s political actors and civil society organisations remain deeply divided, previous mediation efforts have faltered, and the war continues to make comprehensive political engagement increasingly difficult. The committee’s initiative is an attempt to break the deadlock. Efforts to prepare for political dialogue should not be postponed until the fighting stops. Securing a ceasefire and ensuring humanitarian access are urgent priorities, but preparations for political dialogue can proceed alongside efforts to achieve them.
委员会的成员并非通过选举产生,他们也不代表每一个政治群体。然而,委员会的合法性不能仅凭其产生方式来评判。还必须看它是否能够帮助更广泛的政治行为者进入全国性对话。
The committee’s members were not elected, and they do not represent every political constituency. Yet the committee’s legitimacy cannot be judged solely by how it was created. It must also be judged by whether it can help bring a broader range of political actors into a national dialogue.
仅凭善意无法消除人们对其可信度的担忧。政治对话只有在参与者认为该过程公平且独立时才可能成功。促成政治开放所需的合法性不一定与谈判全国性和解所需的合法性相同。但即便是准备性倡议,也必须赢得其所试图团结之人的信任。
Good intentions alone cannot resolve concerns about credibility. Political dialogue can succeed only if participants believe the process is fair and independent. The legitimacy required to facilitate a political opening is not necessarily the same as that required to negotiate a national settlement. But even a preparatory initiative must earn the trust of those it seeks to bring together.
委员会与阿尔-布尔汉的会晤是实际必要的。作为陆军总司令和主权委员会主席,他有能力回应委员会关于法律保护的要求。与阿尔-布尔汉接触本身并不等同于对其权威的认可。但如果该倡议与军队过度关联,其他政治行为者可能将其视为阿尔-布尔汉政治议程的延伸,而非独立的推动者。因此,委员会必须证明其接触不仅限于军方当局,并且它已准备好与反对军方的政治力量合作。
The committee’s meeting with al-Burhan was a practical necessity. As army chief and head of the Sovereignty Council, he was in a position to respond to the committee’s demands for legal protections. Engaging with al-Burhan does not in itself amount to an endorsement of his authority. But if the initiative becomes too closely associated with the army, other political actors may view it as an extension of al-Burhan’s political agenda rather than an independent facilitator. The committee must therefore demonstrate that its engagement extends beyond the military authorities and that it is prepared to work with political forces that oppose them.
该倡议在喀土穆启动,该地区处于军队控制之下。这引发了一个真正的担忧:一个始于交战一方控制领土的进程是否能够赢得全国各政治力量的信任。全国性对话不能局限于某一地理或政治群体。整个地区经历了战争、治理、流离失所和不安全的不同现实。委员会必须找到办法接触军队控制区之外的人们,包括因战斗而流离失所的苏丹人,并确保他们能够自由参与,不受威胁。
The initiative was launched in Khartoum, which is under army control. This raises a genuine concern about whether a process beginning in territory controlled by one side of the war can attract the confidence of political forces across the country. A national dialogue cannot be confined to one geographical or political constituency. Entire regions have experienced different realities of war, governance, displacement and insecurity. The committee must find ways to reach those living outside army-controlled areas, including Sudanese displaced by the fighting, and ensure they can participate freely and without intimidation.
苏穆德和塔伊西斯决定拒绝该倡议,并不会自动使该进程失效。他们的担忧值得考虑,但在此早期阶段直接拒绝有可能关闭政治参与的机会。与此同时,他们的缺席也很重要。苏丹的危机太深且太复杂,无法由任何单一政治力量来解决。委员会不能期望所有利益相关者立即认可其倡议,但必须创造条件,说服犹豫不决的参与者参与进来。如果它未能做到这一点,该倡议本身就会失败。
Sumoud and Ta’sis’s decision to reject the initiative does not automatically invalidate the process. Their concerns deserve consideration, but outright rejection at this early stage risks closing off an opportunity for political engagement. At the same time, their absence matters. Sudan’s crisis is too deep and complex to be addressed by any single political current. The committee cannot expect every stakeholder to endorse its initiative immediately, but it must create conditions that persuade reluctant actors to participate. If it fails to do so, the initiative itself will have failed.
非洲联盟委员会和阿拉伯联盟也欢迎该倡议,提供了重要的地区支持衡量。他们的认可为复苏苏丹主导的政治对话增添了分量,尽管外部支持不能替代苏丹自身政治力量的信任。
The African Union Commission and the Arab League have also welcomed the initiative, providing an important measure of regional support. Their endorsement lends weight to the effort to revive Sudanese-led political dialogue, although external backing cannot substitute for the confidence of Sudan’s own political forces.
因此,委员会的倡议应当在既不过度乐观也不过自动持怀疑态度的前提下进行评估。其在与布尔汉接触后所宣布的法律措施是一个令人鼓舞的第一步,但真正的考验还在后面。它是否能在实践中帮助消除反对派面临的法律和政治障碍,而不仅仅停留在纸面上?它能否赢得那些曾拒绝它的人的信任?它能否确保苏丹全国各政治和地理分歧的人都有机会自由参与?
The committee’s initiative should therefore be judged without excessive optimism or automatic suspicion. The legal measures announced following its engagement with al-Burhan are an encouraging first step, but the real test lies ahead. Does it help remove legal and political obstacles facing opposition actors in practice, not just on paper? Can it win the confidence of those who have rejected it? Can it ensure that Sudanese across the country’s political and geographical divides have an opportunity to participate freely?
然而,有一点是明确的:苏丹的危机最终将需要拥有对国家未来持截然不同愿景的苏丹行为者坐在一起,进行政治上的互动。没有任何委员会能够代表他们做到这一点。没有任何外部行为者能够为他们完成这件事。最好的情况是,一个筹备性倡议可以帮助创造使这种互动成为可能的条件。其批评者提出的担忧不应被轻视,但也不应成为在该倡议尚未有机会回应这些担忧之前就予以否决的理由。
What is clear, however, is that Sudan’s crisis will ultimately require Sudanese actors with profoundly different visions of the country’s future to sit together and engage one another politically. No committee can do that on their behalf. No external actor can do it for them. At best, a preparatory initiative can help create the conditions under which such engagement becomes possible. The concerns raised by its critics should not be dismissed, but neither should they be grounds for rejecting the initiative before it has had an opportunity to address them.
那些曾拒绝它的人应保持开放态度,如果委员会证明自己能够建立一个独立且包容的进程,他们应愿意重新考虑自己的立场。如果它成功,它将提供一项重要的国家服务。
Those who have rejected it should remain open to reconsidering their position if the committee demonstrates that it can build an independent and inclusive process. If it succeeds, it will have rendered an important national service.