
2026年10月14日 在苏丹,苏丹武装部队(SAF)与快速支援部队(RSF)之间的冲突在北科尔多凡和尼罗蓝州部分地区加剧。战斗迫使数千名平民在播种季节逃离。
October 14, 2026 In Sudan, clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have intensified in North Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile state. The fighting has forced thousands of civilians to flee amid the planting season.
自2023年4月两派及其盟民兵爆发战争以来,双方一直在争夺权力。然而,双方均未能够控制整个国家。
Since war broke out between the two factions and their allied militias in April 2023, both sides have fought for power. However, neither has managed to establish control over the entire country.
苏丹武装部队是该国的官方军队,控制着苏丹的北部和中部地区,包括首都喀土穆,而快速支援部队则在达尔富尔西部地区和南部部分地区保持存在。
The SAF, the nation's official army, is in control of Sudan's north and center, including the capital, Khartoum, while the RSF maintains its presence in the western Darfur region and parts of the south.
根据联合国和国际援助组织的说法,这场残酷战争使苏丹陷入世界上最严重的人道主义和流离失所危机之一。由于持续的战斗使得可靠数据难以获得,估计死亡人数在4万至25万人之间。此外,超过1240万苏丹人也被迫流离失所,既有国内流离失所者,也有逃往邻国的难民。本周,援助组织“反饥饿行动”拉响警报。
The brutal war has plunged Sudan into one of the world's worst humanitarian and displacement crises, according to the United Nations and international aid organizations. The estimated death toll ranges from 40,000 to 250,000 people as reliable figures remain difficult to obtain amid the ongoing fighting. More than 12.4 million Sudanese have also been displaced, both within Sudan and to neighboring countries. This week, the aid organization Action Against Hunger sounded the alarm.
“2460万人正经历高度急性粮食不安全,”德国该非政府组织分部执行主任扬·塞巴斯蒂安·弗里德里希-鲁斯特对德国之声表示。
"24.6 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity," Jan Sebastian Friedrich-Rust, executive director of the German section of the NGO, told DW.
弗里德里希-鲁斯特补充说,2026年估计有82.5万名5岁以下儿童患有急性重度营养不良,而总计420万名儿童以及孕妇和哺乳期妇女被认为正遭受急性营养不良。
Friedrich-Rust added that an estimated 825,000 children younger than 5 suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2026, while a total of 4.2 million children and pregnant or breastfeeding women are thought to be acutely malnourished.
10月,饥荒预警系统网络(FEWS NET)——该网络监测粮食不安全状况并使用国际公认的综合粮食安全阶段分类(IPC)系统——也警告称,包括大达尔富尔和大科尔多凡地区内部流离失所者营地在内的多个地区,预计将面临灾难性(IPC第五阶段)粮食不安全状况,这是急性粮食不安全的最严重分类。
In October, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) — which monitors food insecurity and uses the internationally recognized Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system — also warned that several areas including camps for internally displaced people in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), the most severe classification of acute food insecurity.
“苏丹的局势仍在恶化,人道主义需求持续增长,但应对资源却在减少,” 联合国人口基金会苏丹代表法布里齐亚·法尔乔内说。该机构是联合国负责性与生殖健康的机构。
"The situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate and humanitarian needs are growing, even as the resources to respond are shrinking," Fabrizia Falcione, the Sudan representative of the United Nations Population Fund, the UN agency for sexual and reproductive health, said.
“我最近访问了塔威拉流离失所者营地,至今仍难以用言语描述我所目睹的一切,” 法尔乔内对德国之声说。“想象一下,比德国法兰克福人口还多的人口,在不到三年的时间里被迫逃离家园,聚集在一个地方寻求庇护。”她补充说,该地区有超过70万人只能依赖一家能够进行剖宫产手术的医院。
"I recently visited the displacement camp Tawila and I am still struggling to find the words to describe what I witnessed," Falcione told DW. "Imagine a population larger than that of Frankfurt, Germany, forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in one place in less than three years." She added that more than 700,000 people there rely on just one hospital capable of performing Caesarean sections.
尽管多次警告人道主义局势恶化,但2026年人道主义响应计划(该计划呼吁提供29亿美元,约合25.9亿欧元)目前仅获得41%的资金,迄今为止国际捐助方已提供12亿美元(约合10.7亿欧元)。
Despite repeated warnings about the deteriorating humanitarian situation, the 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan, which calls for $2.9 billion (€2.59 bn), is just 41% funded, with $1.2 billion (€1.07 bn) received from international donors so far.
气候冲击加剧苏丹人道主义危机 联合国人道主义事务协调厅(OCHA)最近警告称,极端高温和强降雨导致的洪水正在加剧苏丹的危机。
Climate shocks exacerbate Sudan's humanitarian crisis The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) recently warned that extreme heat and heavy flooding are worsening the crisis in Sudan.
“今年,一场巨大的热浪导致一些地区每天停电长达12小时,” 德国全球与区域研究所(GIGA)苏丹研究员哈格尔·阿里对德国之声说。“河床和干涸的田野变得荒芜,这进一步加剧了战斗造成的破坏、快速支援部队的焦土战术以及环境破坏。”虽然干旱正影响该国大约一半地区,但强降雨和局部洪水正在恶化苏丹其他地区的状况。
"This year, a massive heatwave brought power cuts of up to 12 hours per day in some regions," Hager Ali, a Sudan researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), told DW. "Riverbeds and dried-out fields are barren, which comes on top of the damage from combat, the RSF's scorched-earth tactics and environmental destruction." While the drought is affecting roughly half the country, heavy rains and localized flooding have worsened conditions in other areas of Sudan.
“如果这还不够的话,还有肥料和柴油的巨大短缺,” 阿里对德国之声说。
"As if that wasn't enough, there is also a massive shortage of fertilizer and diesel," Ali told DW.
苏丹依赖从波斯湾经霍尔木兹海峡及曼德海峡运入的化肥与柴油。然而,在伊朗战争持续升级的背景下,伊朗方面不断封锁霍尔木兹海峡的航运;与此同时,与伊朗结盟的也门胡塞武装也多次威胁并实际干扰曼德海峡的航运秩序。
Sudan relies on imported fertilizer and diesel shipped from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, amid the wider Iran war, Iran has been blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened and at times disrupted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
阿里指出,2026年苏丹的化肥供应量从原先的45万吨骤降至仅约5万吨。此外,柴油同样出现短缺,其价格也大幅上涨,这两大因素进一步加剧了国内局势的恶化。
"Fertilizer supply collapsed from 450,000 metric tons to only about 50,000" in 2026, Ali said, adding that a similar diesel shortage and the soaring cost of diesel compound the situation in two ways.
“农业机械需要依靠柴油驱动,而国内人道主义物资与农产品的运输成本也变得极其高昂,”阿里说道。
"Agricultural equipment uses diesel and the transportation of humanitarian and agricultural goods within the country is getting a lot more expensive," Ali said.
今年10月,国际食物政策研究所发出警告称,2026年9月苏丹的主食与燃料价格均出现急剧上涨。
In October, the International Food Policy Research Institute warned that staple food- and fuel prices in Sudan rose sharply in September 2026.
武器禁运范围有限,难以促成战争终结。长期以来,观察人士一直认为,只有外国势力停止向交战双方提供武器,苏丹战争才可能结束。目前,苏丹武装部队得到埃及、土耳其、俄罗斯及伊朗的官方支持;而阿联酋则被指为快速支援部队的主要后盾,不过阿布扎比方面对此予以否认。
Limited arms embargo curbs hope for an end to the war Observers have long pointed out that the war in Sudan will not end until foreign backers stop supplying arms. The SAF is officially supported by Egypt, Turkey, Russia and Iran while the United Arab Emirates is alleged to be the RSF's main backer, a claim Abu Dhabi denies.
然而今年10月,联合国安理会仅将针对苏丹达尔富尔地区的武器禁运措施延长至12月11日,并未采纳在全国范围内实施禁运的提议。
However, in October, the UN Security Council extended the existing arms embargo only on Sudan's Darfur region until December 11, dropping calls for a nationwide embargo.
“若要将联合国的武器禁运措施推广至苏丹全境,无人机也将被纳入管控范围,”哈格尔·阿里指出。她强调,苏丹堪称全球无人机作战最为频繁的地区之一:截至2026年,无人机袭击已成为导致苏丹平民伤亡的首要原因。
"To expand the UN embargo across Sudan would have included drones in particular," Hager Ali said, noting that Sudan is one of the biggest theaters for drone warfare: As of 2026, the leading cause of civilian casualties in Sudan are drone strikes.
她还向德国之声透露,苏丹常驻联合国代表哈里斯·伊德里斯·穆罕默德反对延长禁运措施,理由是该措施会严重限制苏丹武装部队在战场上的行动能力。
She also told DW that Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed, Sudan's permanent representative to the United Nations, opposed the extention of the embargo over concerns that it would disproportionately limit the Sudanese Armed Forces on the battlefield.
“武器禁运能够阻止潜在的资助者与苏丹武装部队合作,而快速支援部队的武器来源则未必都通过正规渠道,”哈格尔·阿里说道。
"An arms embargo would deter potential backers from cooperating with the Sudanese Armed Forces, whereas the Rapid Support Forces don't necessarily source their weapons through official ways," Hager Ali said.
“快速支援部队依赖与该地区的其他民兵组织、私人军事承包商以及军火商进行交易,”她补充道。由于该部队的物资来源广泛且涉及多方参与者,因此仅靠单一的禁运措施难以对其形成有效制约。
"The RSF rely on trafficking with other militias, private military contractors and traders in the region," she said, adding that because the RSF obtains supplies from numerous sources and actors, it is difficult to target the group through a single embargo.