时代已经改变。马斯克是向去年取消电动汽车购买激励措施、上月调整燃油经济性标准以便让汽车制造商更容易完全跳过制造电动汽车的政党捐款最多的人。马斯克曾表示，他甚至不再从事制造汽车的业务，指示投资者将特斯拉视为机器人和自动驾驶公司。周四晚上，特斯拉将举办其宣传为最后一次人类驾驶车辆发布会的活动。距其原定进入车道的时间已过去六年，Roadster 2 终于问世。特斯拉计划明年开始交付。
Times have changed. Musk is the leading donor to a political party that last year nixed buying incentives for electric vehicles and last month adjusted fuel-economy standards to make it easier for automakers to skip making EVs altogether. Musk has said he’s not even in the business of making cars anymore, instructing investors to think of Tesla as a robotics and autonomy company. On Thursday night, Tesla will host what it has billed as its last unveiling event for a human-driven vehicle. Six years after it was supposed to roll into driveways, the Roadster 2 is finally here. Tesla is slated to start deliveries next year.
“如今电动汽车所处的环境与Roadster首次亮相时截然不同，”AutoPacific汽车研究公司总裁Ed Kim表示。当特斯拉在2017年宣布这款车时，电动汽车对他来说只是“早期采用者的玩具”。到2020年，其他汽车制造商看到特斯拉的天估值以及立法者计划将车辆转向电池的举措，便纷纷许下宏大的电动汽车承诺，大力投入转型。中国开始主导电动汽车制造。如今，在特朗普政府逆转了美国在动力总成方面的政策后，电动汽车销量正在下降而非增长。
“EVs exist today in a massively different environment than when the Roadster was introduced,” says Ed Kim, president of AutoPacific, an automotive research firm. When Tesla announced the car back in 2017, electrics were “toys for early adopters,” he says. By 2020, other automakers saw Tesla’s sky-high valuations and lawmakers’ plans to transition vehicles to batteries and made big electric promises, investing heavily in the shift. China began to dominate EV-making. Now, after the Trump administration reversed the US’s course on the powertrain, EV sales are shrinking, not growing.
不过，如今可选的车型更多了。汽车研究公司Cox Automotive表示，2017年美国消费者只有15款电动汽车可选；如今这一数字已增至近90款。潜在的电动汽车买家更可能是普通大众，因此他们的需求更具实用性。“人们在寻找续航里程、性能、充电能力和转售价值，”Cox公司行业洞察部门主管Stephanie Valdez Streaty表示。
Still, lots more options are available now. In 2017, research firm Cox Automotive says, US customers had 15 EVs to choose from; today, that number has jumped to nearly 90. Potential EV buyers are more likely to be normies, and so their needs are more practical. “People are looking for range, performance, charging ability, resale value,” says Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox.
那么，Roadster的成功究竟是什么样子，这有点复杂。它是一款专门面向……嗯，非主流人群的超级跑车——那些喜欢炫耀、追求极速的人。其中一些人想要那种标志性的汽油发动机动力和轰鸣声。这就是为什么一些豪华汽车制造商费尽心思，即使没有实际装配V-8发动机，也要复刻其声音。这也是为什么其他厂商——包括保时捷和法拉利——表示他们将继续研发汽油发动机。
What success looks like for the Roadster, then, is a bit complicated. It’s a hypercar targeted squarely at, well, non-normies—people who like to show off and go very, very fast. Some of them want that signature gasoline-engine power and roar. That’s why some luxury automakers have taken pains to reproduce the sound of a V-8 without one present. And it’s why others—Porsche and Ferrari among them—have said they’ll keep developing gas engines.
兰博基尼今年早些时候曾表示，将彻底搁置电动汽车项目。即便是布加迪的首席执行官——他自己还创办了一家电动超级跑车公司——也表示，他认为噪音大的内燃机汽车将成为最富有车主之间的地位象征。
Lamborghini said earlier this year it would shelve electrics altogether. Even Bugatti’s CEO, who founded his own electric hypercar company, said he expects loud ICE cars to become a status symbol among the wealthiest car buyers.
“在这个领域，电动汽车真的必须用比实用性更多的东西来震撼消费者，”金说。“超长续航、极其安静、在家充电——这些都不重要。”2017年，特斯拉曾表示该车起售价为20万美元；预订者需支付5万美元定金。
“EVs in this space really have to wow the shopper with a lot more than practical things,” says Kim. “Great range, really quiet, charging at home—none of that matters.”In 2017, Tesla said the car would start at $200,000; reservation holders put down $50,000 deposits.
2017年，马斯克承诺该车将实现当时纪录破零的0到60英里/小时加速时间——低于2秒。如今，已有少数几款量产车突破了这一门槛，特斯拉也必须达到更高的标准。一种选择是：马斯克多年来多次暗示，新款Roadster将具备飞行能力，且有报道称，特斯拉将获得马斯克旗下火箭公司SpaceX的帮助。（2018年，SpaceX曾使用猎鹰重型火箭将首辆Roadster送入太空。）
In 2017, Musk promised a then-record-breaking sub-2-second 0-to-60 acceleration time. Now that a handful of other production cars have broken that barrier, Tesla will have to meet a high bar. One option: Musk has suggested several times over the years that the new Roadster will fly, and reports suggest that the automaker will get help from Musk’s rocket company SpaceX. (In 2018, SpaceX used its Falcon Heavy rocket to launch the first Roadster into space.)
以这样的速度行驶“其实并不舒适，”艾利森合伙人汽车与工业业务合伙人谢亚·伯恩斯说。“物理定律正在追上他们——除了火箭部分之外。”对于一家电动汽车制造商来说，这或许是退出人类驾驶领域的一种有趣方式。
Going that fast “is not terribly comfortable," says Shea Burns, a partner in the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners. “The laws of physics are catching up with them, outside of the rocket piece.”It would be an interesting way for an EV-maker to exit human driving.